[Politics] The French election

[Zeberdi]

I believe yes, the last 25 years or so have seen passive centrist parties appease the largely left leaning so called liberal progressive agenda of open border multiculturalism.. underpinned by the EU and it's laws and policies.... this is what is driving the drift to the right on the continent.

My perspective in my last few posts is not relating to the UK,.. we are somewhat an outlying entity, our politics has rarely mirrored what is happening on the continent, as is going to be proved on Thursday.

Strange how one’s perspective of the world can change depending on one’s own political ideology-

I believe it was ( and still is) misleading to conflate ’Europe’ with an immigration “problem” ( as the far right and the Brexiteers have done)

One of the main reasons for a shift to the right in Europe has come from Centre right coalition governments in Europe appeasing the far right in order to hold onto power ( much like Netanyahu’s government in Israel for the past decade). The far right been more about anti-semitism and Islamophobia than anything else imo.

Europe has never had external open borders - only those within the EU/ Schengen area - the anti-immigration stance of the far right hasn’t revolved around free movement within the Schengen area but from an increase of refugees and economic migrants from outside Europe- which has fueled Islamophobia and Great Replacement conspiracy theories.

 

[Molango's visa]

Good grief that's a lot of words, of course there are a myriad of more granular factors that contribute to the spreading dissatisfaction across the continent, but the EU itself, by dint of the fact that their own policies and laws restrict them from taking the right steps, are directly, almost without challenge, driving the man on the street to seek security of their traditions and cultures in the arms of political entities that are certainly right of centre.... they see that the left in particular have no solutions other than those that will exacerbate the current wave of discontent.

A lot of smart words. Why make that your first comment? Can you deal only with slogans? Blame the EU? Why is the right wing bollocks we are seeing the same in Turkey? You seem to want to justify it. Do you like it?

 

[Curious Orange]

Exactly,... we, on these islands, are a long way from the historical Alf Garnet attitudes of the past, but continental Europe is heading the wrong way.... there is wide resistance to the dilution of their strong traditional national identities, which they rightly cherish,... I can't see where these clashes of culture are going to lead, especially in France, but also wider in nations across the continent.

Unfortunately these culture clashes only occur when the incoming culture doesn't embrace, or is downright hostile to, the existing culture.

The concept of multiculturalism does imply a degree of separation between communities within a society, and problems occur when there are not enough commonalities between those communities in order for them to happily mingle.

 

[carlzeiss]

French election latest: France's parties pull candidates and trade votes in bid to stop National Rally election victory

Jordan Bardella aims to be prime minister after Marine Le Pen's National Rally won 34%, while French President Macron's centrist alliance won 20.3%.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[London Irish]

It was obvious useless centrist politicians who offer nothing will be the handmaidens of the far right. Offer people nothing and they'll go and look in shitty places for something. See this country when people quickly figure out Starmer is Macron without the charisma.

Where's Buzzer these days? We had different politics but he was always very interesting and readable

 

[Westdene Seagull]

France doesn’t embrace multiculturalism,

That's not exactly accurate. It does but many immigrants have been shoved into condensed areas of cities rather than spread out across the huge country ( Ukrainians are an exception ). And this is where Macron has failed. He's hated in rural areas because of things like the cost of fuel and his non-understanding of the large farming community, yet also hated in the cities because of the unfair balance of immigrants. In addition, the rural community, which makes up large swathes of France, see him as a banker not interested in their way of life. Unfortunately that allows parties like the NR to gain ..... I guess similar to the Tories being so detached from reality that people consider voting Reform.

 

[nicko31]

I would argue the opposite - supposedly centrist governments have broadly accepted the 'neoliberal' agenda of prioritising the demands or perceived needs of big business and the wealthy, who threaten to move overseas if they are not given what they want; more tax cuts, privatisation, lucrative contracts to run public services, more 'labour market flexibility', less regulation or obligations, fewer social responsibilities, and weakened employment rights or protection.

The result is worsening employment and living conditions for ordinary people, more financial hardship and poverty, deteriorating public services, more unaffordable or unfit housing, etc.

People are then persuaded that all of these problems are caused by immigrants, or 'Woke', and so they embrace the Hard/Populist Right.

What they don't realise - and many Reform UK supporters illustrate this - is that the Hard Right enthusiastically supports the rampant free-market policies and subservience to corporate interests which have caused so many problems and hardships for ordinary people in the first place.

If a group of workers went on strike against an employer over pay or job cuts, who would Farage or Le Pen support?

The Hard Right exploit ordinary people's justified anger and frustrations about low wages, crap housing and crumbling public services, by encouraging them to blame immigrants, but beyond this, the rabble rousers of the Right will not seriously take the side of those people against bad employers or landlords. Farage, Le Pen, and Trump, are not really friends of the working-class; they view them as 'useful idiots' to be exploited for political gain, and prevent socialism, or even social democracy.

Yep, the right in the UK with the help of the non-dom billionaire press barons are exceedingly good at convincing ordinary folk to act against their own interests.

Take Brexit, immigration was just a tool to gaslight useful idiots. The real objective was deregulation and free market economics. Those Freeport’s are places where the rules don’t apply

 

[portlock seagull]

Unfortunately these culture clashes only occur when the incoming culture doesn't embrace, or is downright hostile to, the existing culture.

The concept of multiculturalism does imply a degree of separation between communities within a society, and problems occur when there are not enough commonalities between those communities in order for them to happily mingle.

If you went to many of the incoming cultures homelands and enforced your views it would be called colonialism. You’d also have no chance trying to overthrow centuries of conservative religious nonsense I’ve little to no time for. Yet here we must tolerate and absorb…like a sore thumb.

 

[heathgate]

A lot of smart words. Why make that your first comment? Can you deal only with slogans? Blame the EU? Why is the right wing bollocks we are seeing the same in Turkey? You seem to want to justify it. Do you like it?

It's a bloody conversation about the reasons for the right wing drift on continental Europe... of course the EU will have a hand in it somewhere... Turkey is a Moslem country, most of which are certainly right of centre by tradition and culture...

...are there some words in this particular conversation you are not allowed to use, .. please enlighten me.

I applaud the drift right, not because that's where I stand politically, I am a confirmed centrist on most issues ( most).... I applaud because it confounds and triggers the entitled so called progressive lobby, and that makes me chuckle.

 

[cunning fergus]

I would argue the opposite - supposedly centrist governments have broadly accepted the 'neoliberal' agenda of prioritising the demands or perceived needs of big business and the wealthy, who threaten to move overseas if they are not given what they want; more tax cuts, privatisation, lucrative contracts to run public services, more 'labour market flexibility', less regulation or obligations, fewer social responsibilities, and weakened employment rights or protection.

The result is worsening employment and living conditions for ordinary people, more financial hardship and poverty, deteriorating public services, more unaffordable or unfit housing, etc.

People are then persuaded that all of these problems are caused by immigrants, or 'Woke', and so they embrace the Hard/Populist Right.

What they don't realise - and many Reform UK supporters illustrate this - is that the Hard Right enthusiastically supports the rampant free-market policies and subservience to corporate interests which have caused so many problems and hardships for ordinary people in the first place.

If a group of workers went on strike against an employer over pay or job cuts, who would Farage or Le Pen support?

The Hard Right exploit ordinary people's justified anger and frustrations about low wages, crap housing and crumbling public services, by encouraging them to blame immigrants, but beyond this, the rabble rousers of the Right will not seriously take the side of those people against bad employers or landlords. Farage, Le Pen, and Trump, are not really friends of the working-class; they view them as 'useful idiots' to be exploited for political gain, and prevent socialism, or even social democracy.

The “hard right” as you reference them often have policies that are usually socialist or even communist in design.

The BNP and NF, aside from their racial policies etc. we’re economically speaking socialists. They advocated wholesale nationalisation of private companies and certain industries, this included introducing management by workers cooperatives.

This is state protectionism on steroids, and akin to the politics of the old Labour Party, pre removal of clause 4 by Blair, a act which saw one of its founder unions the RMT leave the new Labour movement. They continue to campaign for clause 4 to be reinstated.

It is for that reason that Le Pen and Farage whilst being bundled together as the hard/far right are not political bedfellows, quite the opposite. Farage is not a state protectionist by any measure and would not (as far as I can tell) be in favour of increasing the size of the state.

This is why the referencing of parties simply as hard/far right is lazy at best and misleading at worst, a point many of the dampers who live on the political threads on here would do well to understand.

I won’t hold my breath.

 

[cunning fergus]

Yep, the right in the UK with the help of the non-dom billionaire press barons are exceedingly good at convincing ordinary folk to act against their own interests.

Take Brexit, immigration was just a tool to gaslight useful idiots. The real objective was deregulation and free market economics. Those Freeport’s are places where the rules don’t apply

Nom dom billionaires, kinda reminds me of Mandelson and his relationship with the Hindujas, are they still the richest family in the UK?

Anyway, I digress, if your assertion is correct the tortes, having had 4 years to deregulate and uncouple from EU directives and regulations would have done just that.

They haven’t though and that aspect is a central reason many that voted Brexit, who voted for Boris in 2019 whether red or blue, are not voting for them in 2024.

If anything the tories have overseen increased business regulations, including unnecessary overheads like ESG, so they deserve to be thrown out.

Now we are entirely sovereign, Governments can’t hide, the tories deserve their evisceration, a benefit delivered because of Brexit.

 

[Peteinblack]

The “hard right” as you reference them often have policies that are usually socialist or even communist in design.

The BNP and NF, aside from their racial policies etc. we’re economically speaking socialists. They advocated wholesale nationalisation of private companies and certain industries, this included introducing management by workers cooperatives.

This is state protectionism on steroids, and akin to the politics of the old Labour Party, pre removal of clause 4 by Blair, a act which saw one of its founder unions the RMT leave the new Labour movement. They continue to campaign for clause 4 to be reinstated.

It is for that reason that Le Pen and Farage whilst being bundled together as the hard/far right are not political bedfellows, quite the opposite. Farage is not a state protectionist by any measure and would not (as far as I can tell) be in favour of increasing the size of the state.

This is why the referencing of parties simply as hard/far right is lazy at best and misleading at worst, a point many of the dampers who live on the political threads on here would do well to understand.

I won’t hold my breath.

But these supposedly Socialist policies were not the reason for their support among the 'left behind', or for Le Pen's support currently.

The overwhelming basis of the electoral support for Farage and Le Pen is strong anti-immigrant sentiment, coupled with hostility towards Multiculturalism, Muslims, and social liberalism. Many Reform UK supporters and members think that Sunak's Conservatives are actually Left-of-centre, - I've seen one of them refer sneeringly to the ConSocialists - and that Farage promises them a return to 'true Conservatism', by which they mean a small state, low taxes, deregulation on business, a greater role for the private sector in public services like the NHS, and more social discipline on people they don't like.

I strongly suspect that if you asked a Farage or Le Pen supporter which of these leaders' policies they liked beyond curbing immigration, they'd struggle to think of one.

Le Pen, Farage and Trump appeal to the same demoralised and 'left behind' sections of society, the same socio-economic demographics, who are susceptible to the simplistic message that their problems are caused by immigration.

The tragedy is that the economic policies favoured ideologically by the Hard/Populist Right will not tackle poverty, inequality or decimated public services; on the contrary, their polices will exacerbate these problems and sources of anger - but the Hard Right will then find other scapegoats, such as 'the deep state' (see Liz Truss).

 

[A1X]

You’d have thought the French of anyone would have learnt the mistakes of letting the far right take chance in the 1940s but there we go…

 

[nicko31]

Nom dom billionaires, kinda reminds me of Mandelson and his relationship with the Hindujas, are they still the richest family in the UK?

Anyway, I digress, if your assertion is correct the tortes, having had 4 years to deregulate and uncouple from EU directives and regulations would have done just that.

They haven’t though and that aspect is a central reason many that voted Brexit, who voted for Boris in 2019 whether red or blue, are not voting for them in 2024.

If anything the tories have overseen increased business regulations, including unnecessary overheads like ESG, so they deserve to be thrown out.

Now we are entirely sovereign, Governments can’t hide, the tories deserve their evisceration, a benefit delivered because of Brexit.

You must living all the red tape we’ve created by our self imposed trade sanctions …

 

[cunning fergus]

But these supposedly Socialist policies were not the reason for their support among the 'left behind', or for Le Pen's support currently.

The overwhelming basis of the electoral support for Farage and Le Pen is strong anti-immigrant sentiment, coupled with hostility towards Multiculturalism, Muslims, and social liberalism. Many Reform UK supporters and members think that Sunak's Conservatives are actually Left-of-centre, - I've seen one of them refer sneeringly to the ConSocialists - and that Farage promises them a return to 'true Conservatism', by which they mean a small state, low taxes, deregulation on business, a greater role for the private sector in public services like the NHS, and more social discipline on people they don't like.

I strongly suspect that if you asked a Farage or Le Pen supporter which of these leaders' policies they liked beyond curbing immigration, they'd struggle to think of one.

Le Pen, Farage and Trump appeal to the same demoralised and 'left behind' sections of society, the same socio-economic demographics, who are susceptible to the simplistic message that their problems are caused by immigration.

The tragedy is that the economic policies favoured ideologically by the Hard/Populist Right will not tackle poverty, inequality or decimated public services; on the contrary, their polices will exacerbate these problems and sources of anger - but the Hard Right will then find other scapegoats, such as 'the deep state' (see Liz Truss).

I think you’ve missed my point, Le Pen’s economic policies may well deliver a Liz Truss moment but their design will not be from the Thatcher playbook it will be more akin to Jeremy Corbyn’s. This seems like the kind of economic policy you would align with?

You seem to have a relatively fixed view on why people are voting for Le Pen and Farage, and no doubt the demographic change arising from immigration and problems linked to it are a motivating factor.

You can ignore it or not agree with it, however the number of people voting for Le Pen last week, Farage this week, Wilders in Holland etc are voting for them in numbers that did not occur previously.

I doubt they are all doing so because they are bovine minded imbeciles, I suspect many are sick of the deceit and patronisation of the governing establishment.

 

[nicko31]

You’d have thought the French of anyone would have learnt the mistakes of letting the far right take chance in the 1940s but there we go…

France needs to just look at us in the past decade, populist nationalism has been an abject failure. Not sure you need to go back to 40's

 

[TomandJerry]

First projection due at 7pm our time (8pm French time)

France’s national assembly has 577 seats, with 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.

(Please merge with another thread if I have missed one covering the French elections)

 

[TomandJerry]

Here is the first projected seat distribution, from Ipsos. It shows the left in the lead, in a major shift compared to opinion polls during the campaign.

Left-green New Popular Front: 172-192 seats

Emmanuel Macron’s allies: 150-170 seats

Far right National Rally and allies: 132-152 seats

 

[Bob!]

BBC says

Confused picture as projections come in
published at 19:00
19:00
BREAKING
Exit polls have just been made available and they all give different numbers - to the point we cannot confidently say which party has come out on top.

France Télévisions gives the National Rally between 120 and 160 seats - if that's correct then this is a surprise defeat for the RN, which would have come third.

Two other polls, including France's biggest private channel TF1 and from RTL/M6 suggest RN has come second. One other projection gives RN the biggest number of seats, but that may be an outlier.

However, what is clear is that France is heading for a hung parliament with no single block controlling a majority. The picture will become clearer in the next few hours as actual results come trickling in - we will bring you those as we get them.

 

[Weststander]

Biggest turnout since 1981 … to stop the neo fascists.

Relief.

A coalition, this won’t/cannot be a hard left parliament.