[Politics] The French election

[Kalimantan Gull]

Could be a masterstroke from Macron. Calling an election when the right are unprepared. They love to snipe from the sidelines but, if they get elected they have to deliver their promised agenda and, they will then find out how difficult government can be. Is Macron's plan to either to defeat them at the ballot box or to be there ready if le Pen wins but then fucks up government ?

He's probably playing a long game. He stays as president and can control their excesses, whilst they might get exposed as incompetent for governing. Then when it comes to the presidential electron the country may not be so willing to give the keys to Le Pen.

Split governments used to be the norm in France but this century the presidential and parliamentary elections have been at almost the same time, meaning one party tends to sweep the board. If Macron had limped on for two years he probably would have been at the wrong end of a Conservative style wipeout. Holding the Assembly election now breaks the electoral link between the two, allowing the possibility of the President and PM being of different parties. It would prevent LePen from holding absolute power.

 

[Giraffe]

The Sunday Times today reported Labour had built bridges through David Lammy with the Macron regime in anticipation of a new entente cordiale.

That might have been a waste of time then!

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

That might have been a waste of time then!

Well, Macron isn't going anywhere and is still responsible for foreign policy regardless of the PM is.

 

[BN41Albion]

You didn’t read my post properly did you. And you cut off quoting me mid sentence too.

Guess you don’t follow American politics either - I said what is happening in Europe is of the SAME vile brand of populist Nationalism that Trump/Bannon/Farage/Truss et al espouse. I did not say there was a rising tide of Nationalism in the UK .

Ah, I did misread - apologies. It is certainly scary that much of Europe is significantly lurching to the far right.

Ftr I follow American politics closely! Campbell and Stewart do an excellent job on The Rest is Politics podcast - it's obviously even more interesting at the moment with so much going on around the world.

 

[abc]

If it is to be addressed then serious and immediate action on climate change, reparations for historic actions and massive increases in foreign aid budgets are the way to go.

Ironically all actions opposed by the very politicians who usually demand a “solution” to the immigration issue.

Could you explain what you mean by reparations for historic actions and what it has to do with immigration?

 

[vegster]

He's probably playing a long game. He stays as president and can control their excesses, whilst they might get exposed as incompetent for governing. Then when it comes to the presidential electron the country may not be so willing to give the keys to Le Pen.

Split governments used to be the norm in France but this century the presidential and parliamentary elections have been at almost the same time, meaning one party tends to sweep the board. If Macron had limped on for two years he probably would have been at the wrong end of a Conservative style wipeout. Holding the Assembly election now breaks the electoral link between the two, allowing the possibility of the President and PM being of different parties. It would prevent LePen from holding absolute power.

Whoever said " 48 hours is a long time in politics " is quite right. On Thursday Macron led the commemoration of D-Day and the fight against Fascists and now 3 days later he's fighting the far right in his own country !

 

[A1X]

Stop muddying the waters,... the simple facts are this, large-scale migration into western democracies is based solely on the individual desire of said migrants to grab a piece of the western economic and social success story... those various 'western' societies, were successful and/or developing success, long before the various trading companies spread the industrialised commerce reach into the new world nations across the planet.

I’m not “muddying the waters”, you’ve simply proved my point. The issue is increasing poverty in areas such as sub-Saharan Africa and increasing desertification due to climate change. Because of this poverty and increasingly tough living conditions, people will keep trying to reach areas where that is believed not to be the case, namely Europe.

 

[heathgate]

I’m not “muddying the waters”, you’ve simply proved my point. The issue is increasing poverty in areas such as sub-Saharan Africa and increasing desertification due to climate change. Because of this poverty and increasingly tough living conditions, people will keep trying to reach areas where that is believed not to be the case, namely Europe.

I would suggest that reparations ( to whom?)...and general overseas aid will simply be throwing good money after bad,.... A decent % of the money will likely simply be pilfered by officials...facilitate back handers for dodgy contracts etc etc, ...the only beneficiaries of all this cashflow into the so called developing nations, are those selling designer fashion, luxury cars and first class travel to Dubai shopping malls, 5* hotels and restaurants.

 

[A1X]

I would suggest that reparations ( to whom?)...and general overseas aid will simply be throwing good money after bad,.... A decent % of the money will likely simply be pilfered by officials...facilitate back handers for dodgy contracts etc etc, ...the only beneficiaries of all this cashflow into the so called developing nations, are those selling designer fashion, luxury cars and first class travel to Dubai shopping malls, 5* hotels and restaurants.

Ah, these old chestnuts.

So you don’t want to spend any of our money on sorting out these problems at source, so what is your solution if not to improve their locality to encourage them not to leave in the first place?

 

[heathgate]

Ah, these old chestnuts.

So you don’t want to spend any of our money on sorting out these problems at source, so what is your solution if not to improve their locality to encourage them not to leave in the first place?

The 'west' has been trying to assist the modern version of development in these more deprived areas of the world for 75 years..... since it became trendy in the post war years,... yes, there are undoubtedly plenty of success stories, which is itself a reason to continue I guess, but don't be fooled... those trillions of $ or £ or € have simply been a sticking plaster, the festering sore of institutional criminality and fraud, especially across sub Saharan Africa, has in my view, even accelerated the steady migration away from the poverty that persists.

 

[Weststander]

Who would have thought a few years ago that the European Parliament would contain a large and growing far-right group? Unsettling times to say the least.

The causes?
1. Mass immigration.
2. Leading to racism.
3. Social media … the conduit for vile views.
4. Russian and Far Right sh1t stirring. Subtly done over Facebook etc.

This has been on the cards. When a few here and elsewhere in this country painted a false picture of a kind and social democratic continent, that wasn’t the reality. A huge EU survey in 2017, 25,500 respondents with different ethnic minority and immigrant backgrounds across all 28 EU Member States, revealed endemic racism. We’ve friends who after years in Brighton moved back to a small Swedish city. In school there, their 9 year old daughter was surprised and sad to hear that the rest of her cohort loathed black and middle eastern kids.

Can all of Europe return to more sane times?

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Who would have thought a few years ago that the European Parliament would contain a large and growing far-right group? Unsettling times to say the least.

The causes?
1. Mass immigration.
2. Leading to racism.
3. Social media … the conduit for vile views.
4. Russian and Far Right sh1t stirring. Subtly done over Facebook etc.

This has been on the cards. When a few here and elsewhere in this country painted a false picture of a kind and social democratic continent, that wasn’t the reality. A huge EU survey in 2017, 25,500 respondents with different ethnic minority and immigrant backgrounds across all 28 EU Member States, revealed endemic racism. We’ve friends who after years in Brighton moved back to a small Swedish city. In school there, their 9 year old daughter was surprised and sad to hear that the rest of her cohort loathed black and middle eastern kids.

Can all of Europe return to more sane times?

It's not that surprising is it? Lots of European countries have had parties of varying degrees of right wing-ness polling pretty highly for years.

I've never really understood where the idea of Europe as a liberal/social democrat/happy clappy paradise came from.

 

[Zeberdi]

Stop muddying the waters,... the simple facts are this, large-scale migration into western democracies is based solely on the individual desire of said migrants to grab a piece of the western economic and social success story... those various 'western' societies, were successful and/or developing success, long before the various trading companies spread the industrialised commerce reach into the new world nations across the planet.

There are no simple facts in the drivers of immigration and AIX is correct, It’s actually a well recognised phenomenon in the scientific community that Climate Change will be an increasing driver of both economic migrants and global movement of refugees - it already is:

Climate Change is pushing up the cost of fossil based fuels as sustainable energy recourses both become cheaper and more desirable to Western economies- reduced GDPs in major oil producing Countries in coming decades means more internal conflicts are likely to arise from the stress of social hardships and push up the levels of economic and asylum-seeking population movements.

Climate Change is causing what has always been a source of conflict in the ME (and Africa) for eons, depletions of fresh water - wars over territory that still hold fresh water resources such as aquifers are increasing.

Climate Change is changing weather patterns - making them more extreme with increasing droughts and floods - and having a devastating impact on food production - famine and food crisis is increasing.

Climate Change causing sea levels to rise - the impact is already being felt in low lying island countries, some of which are becoming inhabitable

 

[Weststander]

It's not that surprising is it? Lots of European countries have had parties of varying degrees of right wing-ness polling pretty highly for years.

I've never really understood where the idea of Europe as a liberal/social democrat/happy clappy paradise came from.

People here (UK) who stereotyped the continent as a social and everything paradise. Based on staying in a gîte in the Dordogne or a mate's restored hamlet in Normandy.

Hearing the tax-spend policies in Sweden/Finland, then extrapolating that to 25 other nations.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

People here (UK) who stereotyped the continent as a social and everything paradise. Based on staying in a gîte in the Dordogne or a mate's restored hamlet in Normandy.

Hearing the tax-spend policies in Sweden/Finland, then extrapolating that to 25 other nations.

I got into an extremely drunken conversation/argument about this in a Chinese restaurant in Sheffield once.

It peaked with me shouting "what's the average wage in Romania?" across the table for no apparent reason.

I imagine I was trying to make an "intelligent point" about people's perceptions of Europe being based on the bits they go on holiday to in France/Germany etc., and failing totally.

 

[beorhthelm]

It's not that surprising is it? Lots of European countries have had parties of varying degrees of right wing-ness polling pretty highly for years.

I've never really understood where the idea of Europe as a liberal/social democrat/happy clappy paradise came from.

probably the social democrat, happy clappers who only see what they want to see. grass is greener syndrome.

 

[B-right-on]

It's not that surprising is it? Lots of European countries have had parties of varying degrees of right wing-ness polling pretty highly for years.

I've never really understood where the idea of Europe as a liberal/social democrat/happy clappy paradise came from.

Exactly. Been an issue for decades and decades. Why was Hitler so popular in many other countries than Germany?

 

[Bry Nylon]

I got into an extremely drunken conversation/argument about this in a Chinese restaurant in Sheffield once.

It peaked with me shouting "what's the average wage in Romania?" across the table for no apparent reason.

I like it; a modern twist on the old Morecambe and Wise gag:..

Ernie: "What's a Grecian urn?"
Eric: [mugging into the camera] "About 3 drachmas a week. Ho ho."

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

I like it; a modern twist on the old Morecambe and Wise gag:..

Ernie: "What's a Grecian urn?"
Eric: [mugging into the camera] "About 3 drachmas a week. Ho ho."

I think it'd be fair to describe the response as "bewildered".

Fortunately at this point somebody knocked their beer over reaching for some food while somebody else span the lazy susan around and we all moved on.

 

[Zeberdi]

Exactly. Been an issue for decades and decades. Why was Hitler so popular in many other countries than Germany?

I know it’s rhetorical but primarily a combination of two reasons

1. The 1926 Great Depression which left millions in poverty and economies in an economic crisis
2. Deep rooted Anti-semitism in the national psyche wasn’t confined to Germany

The popularity of the Nazis therefore arose out of an accurate reading of the public mood - and the “cult” personality of their leader.

As said above, racist, discriminating politics gain traction at a times of popular hardships and perceptions of available recourses. Those who are ‘alien’, ‘different’, or ‘minority’ are always scapegoated as being both the problem and the “solution”..