Sorry, I don’t think that covers it.
An R rate of under 1 means prevalence is going down, yet Johnson said prevalence is going up. It seems that the R rate is out of date.
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[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread
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Sorry, I don’t think that covers it.
An R rate of under 1 means prevalence is going down, yet Johnson said prevalence is going up. It seems that the R rate is out of date.
Albion Dan
Banned
Exactly this. We are getting totally scammed with the number reporting. How on earth are all those people managing to get to the point of death without going to hospital? The only explanation is it’s care homes, which means that all that’s happening is it’s still swimming round the care home eco system. The other is the number are total nonsense, which has been pretty obvious since this whole thing started.
pb21
Well-known member
- Apr 23, 2010
- 6,689
Russia plans mass vaccination campaign in October
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53621708
This is hopefully good news and not just an unsafe rush job.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53621708
This is hopefully good news and not just an unsafe rush job.
It's weird. I dont get why PHE havent suspended releasing figures like they said they would
Postman Pat
Well-known member
If things continue this way I would hope we could report the first 'zero' day in NHS hospitals within 10 days. If not very close.
Hopefully a mixture of better treatments and more milder cases being identified leading to better numbers.
Hospitalizations and those in hospital are falling or stable.
Will depend if the uptick of positive cases has an impact.
Could at least be useful information for the rest of the world to look at, in terms of how a vaccine might affect spread of this virus moving forwards.
vegster
Sanity Clause
- May 5, 2008
- 28,273
Of course it's a rush job! There's a major propaganda effort to claim less cases and deaths per capita in order to intimate that Putin and the Russian health service are, not only on top of Covid-19 but, ahead of Western nations in tackling the virus..... If they even actually had a vaccine it's one they would have nicked.
It’s an absolute shambles.
It’s almost if they want to keep this type of reporting so they can do what they want.
Wouldn’t be surprised to hear a few months later - if successful - that the data was nicked from UK/US etc vaccines.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,019
thats PHE for you. i suppose they want numbers to remain consistent, rather than necessarily accurate.
Postman Pat
Well-known member
[Tweet]1289908236494069760[/tweet]
Postman Pat
Well-known member
[Tweet]1289969064643788802[/tweet]
Richy_Seagull
Well-known member
So as someone who has been getting very anxious about the numbers surging again can anyone explain why we are not at the moment seeing any increase in deaths? Is it just a lag?
This is something that really has puzzled me as well. Does anyone have any actual evidence as to what is behind this. Because the hospital only deaths are very good news really.
I’ll guess.
The people testing positive are mostly youngsters or in good health (not obese like the PM).
If you imagine Covid-19 like a pride of lions and we’re the Wildebeest, many of the weak and vulnerable in the herd have already been killed.
Postman Pat
Well-known member
I would guess that as they have been increasing testing in specific high rate areas, Leicester, Oldham etc.. they are finding a lot more people with no or very mild symptoms who they never would have discovered under usual circumstances.
Track and trace may have the same impact. More targeted testing, but not significant symptoms.
As per my post above, more positive cases, yet fewer people ill enough to end up in hospital (25 on Friday), therefore fewer people dying.
Hopefully keeps falling.
A few comments. I think, at this stage at least, the case numbers aren’t really surging. Yes, they are slightly higher than two to three weeks ago but probably only back to the levels they were at this time last month.
Then there’s the cohort. Unlike March / April, I suspect a much lower proportion of the cases are in vulnerable people, such as those in care homes. Far more likely is that the cases are largely young people who have been mixing in spaces such as pubs etc. The percentage of asymptomatic cases is thought to be much higher than early on in the pandemic.
Then of course are the treatment options and our general understanding of the virus. We know markedly more than we did in March, and for that reason the outcome for the average person infected is likely to be much better than it was then. It’s also possible that due to the fact that social interaction remains significantly lower than it was pre-pandemic, people are being exposed to lower viral loads.
What we have now is an economic balancing act. I’ve revised my previous opinion that the virus is fizzling out; it may be less serious than it was for the reasons above however it’s not going to disappear without the help of a vaccine. The government is trying to reopen the economy as much as possible whilst keeping case and subsequently death numbers at a relatively flat and ‘acceptable’ level. We can’t eliminate it, so we have to tread water until there is a vaccine.
In keeping with this thread, there does seem to be a degree of quiet confidence that we may have something readily available before year end. And what a remarkable feat that would be.