A few comments. I think, at this stage at least, the case numbers aren’t really surging. Yes, they are slightly higher than two to three weeks ago but probably only back to the levels they were at this time last month.
Then there’s the cohort. Unlike March / April, I suspect a much lower proportion of the cases are in vulnerable people, such as those in care homes. Far more likely is that the cases are largely young people who have been mixing in spaces such as pubs etc. The percentage of asymptomatic cases is thought to be much higher than early on in the pandemic.
Then of course are the treatment options and our general understanding of the virus. We know markedly more than we did in March, and for that reason the outcome for the average person infected is likely to be much better than it was then. It’s also possible that due to the fact that social interaction remains significantly lower than it was pre-pandemic, people are being exposed to lower viral loads.
What we have now is an economic balancing act. I’ve revised my previous opinion that the virus is fizzling out; it may be less serious than it was for the reasons above however it’s not going to disappear without the help of a vaccine. The government is trying to reopen the economy as much as possible whilst keeping case and subsequently death numbers at a relatively flat and ‘acceptable’ level. We can’t eliminate it, so we have to tread water until there is a vaccine.
In keeping with this thread, there does seem to be a degree of quiet confidence that we may have something readily available before year end. And what a remarkable feat that would be.
Absolutely all of this.