[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[Postman Pat]

I may have had it mid March, I will check it out once the keyworkers have taken up the antibodies tests.

I think there will be far higher % of the nation have had it than first thought.

Which like you said could be very good news although I know it doesn't guarantee immunity at this point.

As someone mentioned previously, we haven't seen a wave of re-infections, so we must assume short-term immunity at least for now, hopefully with longer term for the vast majority.

 

[CheeseRolls]

BBC reports that A&E visits in England are down to record low.

Which maybe more significantly means that A&E visits by time-wasting c***s are down to a record low. Tho very recently saw a C4 News interview with an A&E doctor in Wales suggesting the drunk/drugs weekender time-wasting c***s are back in town

Sporting injuries and general outside mucking around count for quite a few visits. Plus anyone with respiratory or temperature related problems, would still have been paying a visit, just going in through a different door. It's not all scrots.

 

[dazzer6666]

Sporting injuries and general outside mucking around count for quite a few visits. Plus anyone with respiratory or temperature related problems, would still have been paying a visit, just going in through a different door. It's not all scrots.

I heard an ortho consultant a couple of weeks ago saying his hospital normally gets 40-50 broken bones on a weekend (particularly sports injuries, road accidents etc) and the weekend in question they'd had just one. With no sport (except maybe inexperienced cyclists falling off), closed pubs (so less pissed up falling over and fighting) and a lot less traffic about causing accidents it's hardly surprising numbers are down so much

 

[Mellotron]

www.hopeincovid.com - a website fully dedicated to good news relating to Coronavirus.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Good morning good newsers.

This morning I started work early as normal and switched on my edge browser which is where all my work favourites are. This defaults to MSN news and, normally, a rolling URL headline mess of misery. Not this morning.....

Firstly London now has one of the lowest transmission "R" rates in the country and 'could be virus free in weeks'.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...owing-researchers/ar-BB146I0H?ocid=spartandhp

The Oxford vaccine has shown promising signs in monkeys

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/hea...ctive-in-small-study-on-monkeys-a4441116.html

And bars and restaurants are reopening in Australia!

 

[Stumpy Tim]

Did anyone see the Mirror headline suggesting 19 million Brits could have had it? That seems ludicrously high, but amazing news if true.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Did anyone see the Mirror headline suggesting 19 million Brits could have had it? That seems ludicrously high, but amazing news if true.

Good news is only good news if it is true.

Let's hope.

 

[Poojah]

Good morning good newsers.

This morning I started work early as normal and switched on my edge browser which is where all my work favourites are. This defaults to MSN news and, normally, a rolling URL headline mess of misery. Not this morning.....

Firstly London now has one of the lowest transmission "R" rates in the country and 'could be virus free in weeks'.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...owing-researchers/ar-BB146I0H?ocid=spartandhp

The Oxford vaccine has shown promising signs in monkeys

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/hea...ctive-in-small-study-on-monkeys-a4441116.html

And bars and restaurants are reopening in Australia!

The London story is potentially really interesting, is it not? The claim is that the city is seeing only 24 new infections per day, compared with up to 4,000 in the North East.

That’s intriguing on a number of levels. First, 24 daily infections in a city of 9m people is a tiny, almost insignificant number. But more than that, given the fact it was very recently the epicentre, its high population density and nature of its transport systems it seems illogical that levels could be so low, so soon.

If it’s true however, could it possibly be that prior infection and subsequently immunity levels have reached a point where the virus can no longer spread effectively? That would potentially explain the disparity between our capital and small coastal towns in the North East, which are naturally going to be further behind less well connected areas. Could it be that the virus simply fizzles out once enough people in a given location have had it?

It would also help to explain dwindling levels in Sweden where people have continued to mingle. It may mean that parts of this country still have some pain to endure before something close to normality can resume, however perhaps we are not as far away from getting important bits of our life back than it may seem.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

The London story is potentially really interesting, is it not? The claim is that the city is seeing only 24 new infections per day, compared with up to 4,000 in the North East.

That’s intriguing on a number of levels. First, 24 daily infections in a city of 9m people is a tiny, almost insignificant number. But more than that, given the fact it was very recently the epicentre, its high population density and nature of its transport systems it seems illogical that levels could be so low, so soon.

If it’s true however, could it possibly be that prior infection and subsequently immunity levels have reached a point where the virus can no longer spread effectively? That would potentially explain the disparity between our capital and small coastal towns in the North East, which are naturally going to be further behind less well connected areas. Could it be that the virus simply fizzles our once enough people in a given location have had it?

It would also help to explain dwindling levels in Sweden where people have continued to mingle. It may mean that parts of this country still have some pain to endure before something close to normality can resume, however perhaps we are not as far away from getting important bits of our life back than it may seem.

24 new cases a day in a city of 9 million people is an amazingly encouraging number if confirmed

 

[Guinness Boy]

The London story is potentially really interesting, is it not? The claim is that the city is seeing only 24 new infections per day, compared with up to 4,000 in the North East.

That’s intriguing on a number of levels. First, 24 daily infections in a city of 9m people is a tiny, almost insignificant number. But more than that, given the fact it was very recently the epicentre, its high population density and nature of its transport systems it seems illogical that levels could be so low, so soon.

If it’s true however, could it possibly be that prior infection and subsequently immunity levels have reached a point where the virus can no longer spread effectively? That would potentially explain the disparity between our capital and small coastal towns in the North East, which are naturally going to be further behind less well connected areas. Could it be that the virus simply fizzles out once enough people in a given location have had it?

It would also help to explain dwindling levels in Sweden where people have continued to mingle. It may mean that parts of this country still have some pain to endure before something close to normality can resume, however perhaps we are not as far away from getting important bits of our life back than it may seem.

That's certainly what I'm taking from it

I'm sure our resident doctor will be along soon to reassure us that we're all still going to die (sorry Harry) but, to me, this is the best news going on this thread. Obviously we would need to stay vigilant (Christ, I sound like Boris) for a second wave, and for it to pick back up in winter, when mingling with real flu and colds again, but on the face of it this is superb news going forward (not so much for Londoners who suffered up to now).

To continue the GOOD news, cases in Brighton and Hove remain low but have been barely NUDGING up in the last few days. The jump Tuesday to Wednesday was four new cases and only 404 total. So, on the face of it, the R is very low even in a place where there haven't been a huge number of confirmed cases. This could be lockdown related again, so we need to keep a good eye on it, but I think very few people in B&H will have been tested. I never have been but my GP "reckons" I've had it and two of my best mates had very similar symptoms back in February (one of whom said it went through his work, which is in Crawley, "like wildfire").

 

[atomised]

Good news is only good news if it is true.

Let's hope.

I file it as good news either way. Even if 19 million is wildly optimistic a quarter of that is the best part of 5 million. Massively greater than the number of confirmed cases.
I'm filing it alongside yesterdays ONS figures of non hospital infections over the last 2 weeks as building a picture of how widespread this is

 

[Mellotron]

The London story is potentially really interesting, is it not? The claim is that the city is seeing only 24 new infections per day, compared with up to 4,000 in the North East.

That’s intriguing on a number of levels. First, 24 daily infections in a city of 9m people is a tiny, almost insignificant number. But more than that, given the fact it was very recently the epicentre, its high population density and nature of its transport systems it seems illogical that levels could be so low, so soon.

If it’s true however, could it possibly be that prior infection and subsequently immunity levels have reached a point where the virus can no longer spread effectively? That would potentially explain the disparity between our capital and small coastal towns in the North East, which are naturally going to be further behind less well connected areas. Could it be that the virus simply fizzles out once enough people in a given location have had it?

It would also help to explain dwindling levels in Sweden where people have continued to mingle. It may mean that parts of this country still have some pain to endure before something close to normality can resume, however perhaps we are not as far away from getting important bits of our life back than it may seem.

There was an article recently in the Spectator suggesting numerous reasons that the magical 60%-80% range needed for herd immunity may be a massive overestimate, and that 20-30% may well do it.

If I find the article I will post it.

 

[Mellotron]

Good news round up this morning;

Slovenia first European country to declare its’ Coronavirus epidemic over.

Balkan states - Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia - have resumed free movement between them - by land, sea and air. Austria and Germany planning to implement the same from 15th May.

 

[wehatepalace]

Is it optimistic to think this virus may just fizzle out, and that we are some way to a level of community infection that it has no where to spread ?
The big question is how long the immunity lasts for and whether it’s seasonal like influenza so potentially we could be looking over our shoulder again come the winter, but for now it’s starting to look like we’re winning the battle.

 

[Mellotron]

Is it optimistic to think this virus may just fizzle out, and that we are some way to a level of community infection that it has no where to spread ?
The big question is how long the immunity lasts for and whether it’s seasonal like influenza so potentially we could be looking over our shoulder again come the winter, but for now it’s starting to look like we’re winning the battle.

Thing is science wont stop, so if it does come back in the winter we’ll see it coming this time, and treatments will most likely be in a far better place to deal with it when it arrives.

 

[highflyer]

There was an article recently in the Spectator suggesting numerous reasons that the magical 60%-80% range needed for herd immunity may be a massive overestimate. If I find the article I will post it.

Like many othrs I have become a dedicated amateur epidemiologist lately - happiliy building a mountain of assumptions on an unreliable molehill of evidence...but it seems to be that (like almost everything) the effects of growing immunity isn't just a binary thng of 'herd immunity vs not herd immunity'. As the numbers with some immunity grows so the ease with which the R can be kept below 1 increases slightly and thus the easing of restrictions is possible. So a level of immunity of 10% (which I had heard was the estination for London from a previous study) doesn't allow a return to normal life, but it does mean that small (but significant) shifts in behaviour as people start to meet in small groups outdoors, start to use public transport in small numbers, start to work in places where they can keep a distance does not mean a rapid increases again in the way it would have done in, say, March.

This all seems like good news to me.

 

[The Wizard]

There was an article recently in the Spectator suggesting numerous reasons that the magical 60%-80% range needed for herd immunity may be a massive overestimate. If I find the article I will post it.

For eradication you need a high percentage from what I’ve read, but having 20% immune also makes a big difference to transmission and the R rate. France have done a random antibodies study and 4.4% of people were found to have antibodies, with hardest hit areas around 10%. Spain have done a similar study which shows populous parts of Madrid have up to 11% immunity but again generally around 5%.

London estimate is circa 15%, it’s hard to imagine given just how infectious this virus is that it wasn’t spreading like absolute wildfire in early March on the tubes and busses.

 

[Postman Pat]

From Karol Sikora

Some interesting stats from the ONS.

The number of deaths per day at the end of April was actually below the five-year average.

This will slightly rise due to delays in registration (though the aim is registration within 5 days), but it gives us great hope it's ending.

 

[Mellotron]

Like many othrs I have become a dedicated amateur epidemiologist lately - happiliy building a mountain of assumptions on an unreliable molehill of evidence...but it seems to be that (like almost everything) the effects of growing immunity isn't just a binary thng of 'herd immunity vs not herd immunity'. As the numbers with some immunity grows so the ease with which the R can be kept below 1 increases slightly and thus the easing of restrictions is possible. So a level of immunity of 10% (which I had heard was the estination for London from a previous study) doesn't allow a return to normal life, but it does mean that small (but significant) shifts in behaviour as people start to meet in small groups outdoors, start to use public transport in small numbers, start to work in places where they can keep a distance does not mean a rapid increases again in the way it would have done in, say, March.

This all seems like good news to me.

Absolutely. There are so many reasons we wouldn’t see a second wave rise at anything like the rate the first did.

Also, having had a much worse time of it than say Germany, I think we’ll actually find it easier to ease restrictions without troubling the R rate as much. They have many more susceptible people than us. Think somewhere like New Zealand will have some very tricky decisions to make soon.

 

[beorhthelm]

There was an article recently in the Spectator suggesting numerous reasons that the magical 60%-80% range needed for herd immunity may be a massive overestimate, and that 20-30% may well do it.

If I find the article I will post it.

i dont believe that would be consistent with the base R[SUB]0[/SUB] rate (natural infection without adjustment).