[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[Poojah]

Down again - nuts. I completely understand why those in the scientific and medical communities are urging people not to get carried away (haven't seen the impact from the 19th yet, yada yada ya) however even allowing for an uptick from the recent unlocking, it's hard to find any logical reasoning for this sustained decline other than the effectiveness of our vaccination program. I mean, that's just not how the Delta variant operates, is it?

I'm going to stop short of declaring this whole shit show 'over', but regardless these are exciting and greatly intriguing patterns that are hard to ignore now.

 

[Weststander]

I wonder what the lowest level it could realistically get to.

I assume it would be thousands still

Steadily quite high (with continued low deaths and lowish NHS bed occupancy) before winter may be a good thing?

Many millions more vaxed or gaining natural immunity, prior to the annual pressure point on the NHS.

 

[nickbrighton]

Hospital admissions seem to have plateaued as well over the past 3 days remaining below 950, if that trend continues it will obviously feed into a reduction in deaths in a week or so.

The continued drop in new cases is staggering and we are now fast approaching the point when the first cases triggered by the July 19th restriction lifting should start to become apparent.

If there is no major uplift in cases for the remainder of the week things will certainly start to look exceptionally good.

 

[nwgull]

Down again - nuts. I completely understand why those in the scientific and medical communities are urging people not to get carried away (haven't seen the impact from the 19th yet, yada yada ya) however even allowing for an uptick from the recent unlocking, it's hard to find any logical reasoning for this sustained decline other than the effectiveness of our vaccination program. I mean, that's just not how the Delta variant operates, is it?

I'm going to stop short of declaring this whole shit show 'over', but regardless these are exciting and greatly intriguing patterns that are hard to ignore now.

A majority of the population have been fully vaccinated and the age groups where vaccination uptake has been lowest were the ones most affected by the Delta variant phase and they now, presumably, have a degree of natural immunity. Basically, Delta is running out of people to infect.

 

[Bozza]

Down again - nuts. I completely understand why those in the scientific and medical communities are urging people not to get carried away (haven't seen the impact from the 19th yet, yada yada ya) however even allowing for an uptick from the recent unlocking, it's hard to find any logical reasoning for this sustained decline other than the effectiveness of our vaccination program. I mean, that's just not how the Delta variant operates, is it?

I'm going to stop short of declaring this whole shit show 'over', but regardless these are exciting and greatly intriguing patterns that are hard to ignore now.

People seem to like to try to find a reason, ie singular. I think it's human nature to what to find THE reason for something.

I'm not sure anyone really knows what is going on currently, and everyone I read is somewhat surprised, but obviously pleased that the initial downturn, that could just be a "blip" has been sustained.

I can only think it's a combination of a whole load of things...

- The end of Euro 2020 - a lot less people gathering in front rooms and pubs to watch football.
- Schools - a combination of three things:
o Some broke up on 16th July
o A lot of kids in schools still open had been sent home early due to close contact to known cases
o Some parents took kids out of school voluntarily to protect planned holidays from infection / being told to isolate
- Pingdemic / Track & Trace: A large number of people being instructed to isolate
- Taking care. With infection rates soaring, some folk naturally act more cautiously, such as avoiding indoor crowded spaces etc.
- The sun. No excuse for not being outside. Outside is good.
- Continues growth of immunity from vaccination and prior infection
- Some other bits and pieces

Fingers crossed it lasts, but there are some obvious headwinds ahead...

- Any effect of "Freedom Day" - we've just had the first weekend of things being open proper. We'll not see any impact of that for another week or so.
- Football coming back. Lots of people back to stadiums, and tightly-packed, poorly-ventilated concourses as well as transport etc
- Further ahead: the return of education, from nurseries, through schools and all the way to university settings.

It's certainly fascinating watching this all.

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

Still lots of pinging in Plymouth.
My fortnightly rub down The Happy Endings massage parlour was cancelled today due to the Phillippino staff self isolating.

 

[Weststander]

People seem to like to try to find a reason, ie singular. I think it's human nature to what to find THE reason for something.

I'm not sure anyone really knows what is going on currently, and everyone I read is somewhat surprised, but obviously pleased that the initial downturn, that could just be a "blip" has been sustained.

I can only think it's a combination of a whole load of things...

- The end of Euro 2020 - a lot less people gathering in front rooms and pubs to watch football.
- Schools - a combination of three things:
o Some broke up on 16th July
o A lot of kids in schools still open had been sent home early due to close contact to known cases
o Some parents took kids out of school voluntarily to protect planned holidays from infection / being told to isolate
- Pingdemic / Track & Trace: A large number of people being instructed to isolate
- Taking care. With infection rates soaring, some folk naturally act more cautiously, such as avoiding indoor crowded spaces etc.
- The sun. No excuse for not being outside. Outside is good.
- Continues growth of immunity from vaccination and prior infection
- Some other bits and pieces

Fingers crossed it lasts, but there are some obvious headwinds ahead...

- Any effect of "Freedom Day" - we've just had the first weekend of things being open proper. We'll not see any impact of that for another week or so.
- Football coming back. Lots of people back to stadiums, and tightly-packed, poorly-ventilated concourses as well as transport etc
- Further ahead: the return of education, from nurseries, through schools and all the way to university settings.

It's certainly fascinating watching this all.

I’d be interested to know what proportion of say 18 to 30 year olds, have actually had the virus.

In my family and many others I know, de facto, those in that bracket since mid-May have completely ignored the rules where they can. Big gatherings, Brighton seafront bars have been mobbed since that time or just after. Especially amongst males. I know of few Covid outbreaks as a result eg from a packed pub outside in central London for the Euros, later at a Euros game watched by many at an event in Crowborough.

(I’m not condemning that cohort, their in the prime of their lives and that age people feel invincible. The elderly and vulnerable have largely been vaccinated and once pinged the affected didn’t mix with elderly relatives).

After say 9 or 10 weeks of the above, with millions of interactions, I’m hypothesising that a huge number of the young might now have natural immunity?

 

[Deleted member 2719]

A majority of the population have been fully vaccinated and the age groups where vaccination uptake has been lowest were the ones most affected by the Delta variant phase and they now, presumably, have a degree of natural immunity. Basically, Delta is running out of people to infect.

I agree and said that maybe herd immunity was setting in now.
We just need to keep on top of variant changes and deal with it like the flu from now on with any luck.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

All 4 countries down again

 

[dazzer6666]

All 4 countries down again

Actual positive cases slightly up on yesterday............but (I'm sure what you meant) another big drop week-on-week (-36.1%)

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Had my first train trip and visit to my office for 16 months today. The train, which is normally heaving, was less than 10% capacity (I left Fav at 8.30). Central London and the district line were very quiet. Most people (>85%) were wearing masks. It all felt....good.

 

[Notters]

Down again - nuts. I completely understand why those in the scientific and medical communities are urging people not to get carried away (haven't seen the impact from the 19th yet, yada yada ya) however even allowing for an uptick from the recent unlocking, it's hard to find any logical reasoning for this sustained decline other than the effectiveness of our vaccination program. I mean, that's just not how the Delta variant operates, is it?

I'm going to stop short of declaring this whole shit show 'over', but regardless these are exciting and greatly intriguing patterns that are hard to ignore now.

It's exactly how the Delta variant operates, and exactly what happened in India as I understand it, with minimal vaccination. I know this is the good news thread but let's try and keep it evidence based.

 

[dazzer6666]

Rate of increase in hospitalisations is starting to slow - as expected given the case rate decline perhaps but great to see supportive data emerging :

[tweet]1420397083958251521[/tweet]

[tweet]1420402801281273864[/tweet]

 

[jakarta]

It IS starting to look like we have finally got on top of this but I think we will be living with COVID varients for years to come and will have to accept being jabbed on a regular basis, in a similar manner to flu jabs.

While it is very sad to have had the numbers of deaths we have suffered it would be interesting to see how it will eventually compare to the post WW1 'Spanish Flu' which killed at least 50 million people (some estimates have put it at 100 miilion) which makes the WW1 battlefield casualties chickenfeed by comparison.

 

[Poojah]

It's exactly how the Delta variant operates, and exactly what happened in India as I understand it, with minimal vaccination. I know this is the good news thread but let's try and keep it evidence based.

Certainly not looking to start an argument on this thread of all threads, but my understanding was that the Delta variant had the highest R0 value of all known major variants, hence the way it spread like wildfire in India and subsequently other countries like the UK (case numbers were around 5k before Delta became dominant here).

Are you saying that it is generally understood that the Delta variant will burn very quickly through a population and then suddenly dissipate (for reasons outside of immunity / lockdown etc)? If that’s the case, then hands up, I’ve missed it - and I’d be intrigued to understand any theories as to why that is.

 

[Weststander]

Some opinions here, but also ONS & UCL numbers.

 

[GT49er]

I agree and said that maybe herd immunity was setting in now.
We just need to keep on top of variant changes and deal with it like the flu from now on with any luck.

Do we actually have herd immunity from flu? Many people still get it, and millions of us get vaccinated against it every year.

 

[dazzer6666]

Incredible stats on antibodies in blood donors :

[tweet]1420732963319341060[/tweet]

[tweet]1420732972483977220[/tweet]

 

[Hotchilidog]

Incredible stats on antibodies in blood donors :

[tweet]1420732963319341060[/tweet]

[tweet]1420732972483977220[/tweet]

Maybe this is one of the reasons for the accelerated drop in cases. Vaccination has been high and delta tore through a huge amount of the unvaccinated population and the two numbers are beginning to meet in the middle. I certainly hope this is the case.

 

[dazzer6666]

These numbers are far more important to watch than infections IMO..........

[tweet]1420765616286273541[/tweet]