[Albion] The bottom half run in

[happypig]

I've been doing some mathematical modelling on the remaining quarter of the season, extrapolating teams' form and I've come to a few (some might say obvious) conclusions :

Relegated teams will be West Brom and Southampton plus either Palace or Stoke. there's an outside chance of West Ham, Hudds or Swansea going down but that would need a drop in form from AND a surge by two of the bottom four. Newcastle could drop if the arse falls out of their season.
Bournemouth will finish comfortably top half.
We will pick up 5 more points (Draws v Leicester & Palace, win against Hudds) and finish 12th to 14th on goal difference.
Southampton could lose ALL their remaining games.

Of course this is all speculation and I have been rather conservative in my predictions but I think the oft-quoted 40 points for survival could be lower this season, perhaps as low as 36.

 

[moggy]

Southampton have more away games I believe and the home games are tough.
It’s a tough one to call but we need something from the Leicester game for sure

 

[Official Old Man]

I'll get back to you when I've looked up 'extrapolating'.

 

[neilbard]

I'll get back to you when I've looked up 'extrapolating'.

 

[Icy Gull]

We are not safe yet and a few more games wher we are not allowed to play and panic could see us dragged back into the relegation zone. Leicester, Palace and Huddersfield will be in our faces, hope we cope better than we did yesterday.

 

[larus]

I don’t think Palace will go down. With Zaha now back, they will be more threatening and their fixtures aren’t that bad.

They have
Huddersfield A
Liverpool H
Bournemouth A
BHA H
Watford A
Leicester H
Stoke A
WBA H

 

[Tricky Dicky]

West Brom, it seems, are doomed. Saints are playing so poor that they could drop - and I would never have bet on that at the beginning of the season. I don't see either Stoke or Palace dropping - their form may be v.poor, but in my opinion their squads are strong enough, and when push comes to shove they'll put through.

So, for me, the third team could be any of two or three - but we still have work to do, certainly

 

[saafend_seagull]

Palace will easily stay up unless zaha gets injured again.

We need 3 points.

In my predictor I got WBA bottom with 22 points, then soton, stoke and Swansea around 34-36 points.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Uh_huh_him]

I wonder whether Roy will risk Zaha against Huddersfield next week?
It was their treatment of him that put him out for a few games at the beginning of the season.

As he was prepared to risk him for 1 half against Chelsea. (free hit)
I can certainly see him starting against Huddersfield (must not lose)

Could go wrong

 

[Hampster Gull]

I've been doing some mathematical modelling on the remaining quarter of the season, extrapolating teams' form and I've come to a few (some might say obvious) conclusions :

Relegated teams will be West Brom and Southampton plus either Palace or Stoke. there's an outside chance of West Ham, Hudds or Swansea going down but that would need a drop in form from AND a surge by two of the bottom four. Newcastle could drop if the arse falls out of their season.
Bournemouth will finish comfortably top half.
We will pick up 5 more points (Draws v Leicester & Palace, win against Hudds) and finish 12th to 14th on goal difference.
Southampton could lose ALL their remaining games.

Of course this is all speculation and I have been rather conservative in my predictions but I think the oft-quoted 40 points for survival could be lower this season, perhaps as low as 36.

If you,are extrapolating teams forms then it’s WBA, Stoke,and Palace down based on last 5, and swap WHU with Stoke if based on last three.

Add in Zaha as he changes the form a bit and I think Palace have enough, so WBA, Stoke and WHU.

Soton though have the worst run in and are more than capable of having a further dip in form to throw themselves in there. So my view is WBA, Soton and Stoke, with WHU outsiders to swap with Stoke.

 

[Perkino]

I'd agree with that, WBA are gone, Saints won't get out of trouble so we are 1 of 8 sides who could possibly get relegated along with those 2. I'm not sure that those 7 sides can all jump past us even if we remain on 34. I think we are 98% safe

 

[spence]

I'd agree with that, WBA are gone, Saints won't get out of trouble so we are 1 of 8 sides who could possibly get relegated along with those 2. I'm not sure that those 7 sides can all jump past us even if we remain on 34. I think we are 98% safe

We won't lose 8 on the bounce. Safe to say we will pick up a few points.

 

[Diablo]

I'll get back to you when I've looked up 'extrapolating'.

extend the application of (a method or conclusion) to an unknown situation by assuming that existing trends will continue or similar methods will be applicable.

 

[BensGrandad]

is their a site which shows all the remaining Premier games as I cant find one and would love to see what games each club has. i e who is playing other clubs in relegation trouble.

 

[Cowfold Seagull]

Southampton have more away games I believe and the home games are tough.
It’s a tough one to call but we need something from the Leicester game for sure

Not necessarily the Leicester game, there are others we need points from, but l agree, we aren't quite safe yet.

 

[el punal]

We are not safe yet and a few more games wher we are not allowed to play and panic could see us dragged back into the relegation zone. Leicester, Palace and Huddersfield will be in our faces, hope we cope better than we did yesterday.

Any reason why WE shouldn't be in their faces? Yesterday was a "bad day at the office", poor second half but not disastrous. The disastrous label can be pinned on the performances of Southampton, West Ham and West Brom.

 

[Icy Gull]

Any reason why WE shouldn't be in their faces? Yesterday was a "bad day at the office", poor second half but not disastrous. The disastrous label can be pinned on the performances of Southampton, West Ham and West Brom.

I think any team that gets in our faces puts us on the back foot and tends to make us panic. City and Liverpool, to be expected but also Huddersfield, Leicester, Palace in the league game, Southampton and Stoke at home, WBA, Bournemouth and Everton away have all thrown us out of our stride. We do not cope well with teams that close us down quickly and try to stop us playing., there have been too many games where we sat back and tried to contain, just imo. To be expected early season but now we have options upfront we should be doing exactly as you say and getting in their faces.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

I've been doing a similar extrapolation based on [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION]'s model of win home games against bottom 11 and draw away, for safety.

I have looked at current points achieved in home and away games against Top 6 - Middle 3 (Southampton, Bournemouth, Everton) and bottom 11.

My current final table for the teams most at risk is:


The main flaw with this model is that it doesn't take into account results against each other.

i.e it assumes that West Ham are likely to take 3pts in total from their home games against Southampton and Stoke and that Southampton and Stoke will take 1 pt each from the same games.

Clearly that won't be the case.

 

[5mins-from-amex]

I don’t think Palace will go down. With Zaha now back, they will be more threatening and their fixtures aren’t that bad.

They have
Huddersfield A
Liverpool H
Bournemouth A
BHA H
Watford A
Leicester H
Stoke A
WBA H

Agree but if Zaha was to get another injury then maybe they might struggle. Wonder if Huddersfield will target him...

 

[Uh_huh_him]

I don’t think Palace will go down. With Zaha now back, they will be more threatening and their fixtures aren’t that bad.

They have
Huddersfield A
Liverpool H
Bournemouth A
BHA H
Watford A
Leicester H
Stoke A
WBA H

Agree their fixtures aren't bad, but the pressure is on them to pick up the seemingly easy points.
Lose at Huddersfield next week and that pressure will get worse.
And they aren't the best at handling pressure.