[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Braggfan]

To try and explain, that plot represents the outcome of 23 different computer forecast runs, each with slightly different parameters, resolution etc. It allows forecasters to understand the chances of any specific synoptic outcome being 'true'.

This may help. This diagram is today's (latest) GFS ensemble, but in a better format. This one shows surface temp (at 2m), rainfall and snow percentage chance for somewhere Worthingish.

View attachment 132381

The Operational Run, which is the one published and used by most automated phone apps is the thick black line. This run and the thick blue (the control) are both run at a higher resolution to the others, so should be more reliable (resolution refers to the number of data points modelled globally per the forecast). both of these runs go for the possible N / NE / E blast from about the 21st, with sub zero daytime / night-time temperatures and undoubtedly snow. They are in the cold cluster I've marked.

Alternatively, there are milder options available.

It's a hard one to call.

There are of course many other models to look at. the ECMWF is the best of the rest (probably the most reliable of them all), but they only provide ALL their data if you pay for it. What we can see is their Op run, which goes coldish (but it pushes the coldest air to our West into the Atlantic) and their ensemble 'clusters'. These show the grouped options available in their ensemble.

View attachment 132382

This might seem hard to interpret, but it shows the clusters top to bottom over 3 days (left to right). Each shows the relative pressure over NW Europe.

Cluster 1, with 19 members shows high pressure over Greenland and the pole, with low pressure to the south. This would be cold for Scotland and Northern England, but would probably be milder and wet for us. This group keeps that setup throughout.

Cluster 2 & 3 with 13 & 9 members both start with a Greenland high with a mid Atlantic ridge. These would all be cold for the UK, with snow. They both keep the cold for the 3 days.

Cluster 4, with 6 members for the UK is much the same as cluster 1.

Cluster 5 from our perspective is like 2 & 3.

So, from this run, for the period 21-23 Jan. We have:

Cold & Snow chance for Sussex (cluster:2, 3, 5) = 26
Milder for Sussex, but colder periods (1 & 4) = 25

On a knife edge.

I'm really sorry, this reply is well over due especially as you went to the trouble of explaining it for me, which I really appreciate, thank you. I think I must have been having a brain fog when I first looked at it and posted my comment, but your reply was great and made it very clear.

I've been checking those sites regualrly since now that I'm understanding them. It's always intersting to read your thoughts on the weather and the insights you glean from the data. Cheers

 

[Giraffe]

We had a bit over the last few days. So last night the missus and I decided to clear the driveway. It was -18c but no wind so we got out my little toy I bought during the summer. It’s fantastic. Only took a hour or so.

Potential goal of the season right here. Definitely the best post of this already disappointing winter. Enjoy it.

 

[AmexRuislip]

Sussex almost never lets us down with rain, when East Anglia and the Chilterns get snow. The predictably mild SE.

This was me and my gang a few years back, when we had a fluttering of the white stuff......great fun

 

[Weststander]

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View attachment 132677

This was me and my gang a few years back, when we had a fluttering of the white stuff......great fun

In the winters 2008/09 to 2012/13, we had a stack of snow up here in Withdean, far more than in my own childhood where we’d lived by our mild Sussex coastline. Amazing fun was had with my kids.

 

[SK1NT]

We had a bit over the last few days. So last night the missus and I decided to clear the driveway. It was -18c but no wind so we got out my little toy I bought during the summer. It’s fantastic. Only took a hour or so.

What an awesome picture. Very jealous. Almost feel like setting this up as my pc wallpaper just to get my fill of snow

 

[dangull]

Possible snow predicted this Sunday even at sea level in the Sussex area looking at the BBC news weather forecast.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Possible snow predicted this Sunday even at sea level in the Sussex area looking at the BBC news weather forecast.

Met Office saying heavy rain Sunday lunchtime ..but a tad cold.....we shall see what it says tomorrow..the forecast for me locally has changed a lot this week

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpc1wp8v#?nearestTo=&date=2021-01-24

 

[dazzer6666]

 

[Yoda]

Worthing(ish)

 

[banjo]

A chance on Sunday.

 

[AmexRuislip]

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53.4;-3.0;5&l=snow

 

[dazzer6666]

Worthing(ish)

Possibly a bit snowy on Sunday, then a mild spell before turning cold again....

 

[LamieRobertson]

Possibly a bit snowy on Sunday, then a mild spell before turning cold again....

Oh that’s what it means ..sorry but I’m old fashioned I need symbols

 

[dazzer6666]

Oh that’s what it means ..sorry but I’m old fashioned I need symbols

Weather geeks are getting a bit excited again after recent let-downs. Potentially some wintry stuff during Feb. Don’t ask me to explain because I can’t, I just like lurking on the forum. They argue more on there then we do here

 

[Muhammad - I’m hard - Bruce Lee]

They argue more on there then we do here

No they don’t

 

[Driver8]

Snow overnight here in North Wales!

 

[LamieRobertson]

Snow overnight here in North Wales!

I see you’ve chosen a slightly different angle this time with no hanging basket for me to comment on

 

[Driver8]

The Award-Winning Official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2020-21 Season]

I see you’ve chosen a slightly different angle this time with no hanging basket for me to comment on

They are still there and not looking any better!

Here’s a view from the front (I know we need to cut the hedges!)

 

[LamieRobertson]

They are still there and not looking any better!

Here’s a view from the front (I know we need to cut the hedges!)

Pffft forget cutting the hedges....The view!

 

[SK1NT]

They are still there and not looking any better!

Here’s a view from the front (I know we need to cut the hedges!)

What a gorgeous location. I can't remember who it was but someone posted a lovely scenic pic with great views, with a table and some wine on it... may have been you driver.

80% chances of snow in thames ditton sunday ... woohoo. Please don't le me down weather.