[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[A1X]

I just followed you, have a look at some of my re tweets, you can then follow them.

Thanks, will have a look

 

[casbom]

Well it's definitely still ON this morning, all Models agree on bitterly cold air arriving over the SE from Sunday night onwards. On Monday I would expect to see reports of snow flurries in Sussex with the chance of a Thames Streamer setting up from Monday evening - difficult to say which areas will be affected as depends on wind direction.

Continuing with Snow showers Tue/Wed, anywhere really.

The end of next week is still up in the air, some models see a LP coming up from the south with subsequent blizzard overnight Thurs and most of the day Friday.
Then we COULD see some milder air coming up after it.

Other Models don't develop this LP so much and has it missing us, however this means we keep the East/North Eastler airstream so still very cold.

One thing to mindful of on Wed/Thur next week, this is when we're supposed to be getting the coldest air, with a Windchill factor of more than -10! Which is dangerous conditions to be out and about in. One to keep an eye on.

I've started to get a bit excited about next week, I will be very disappointed if I don't see lying snow around here!

Plus there's a game tomorrow to go to!

 

[casbom]

Latest from the Met Office for our region (we have a Yellow Weather warning as well for Mon & Tues)

Regional Forecast for London & South East England

Headline:

Sunny spells, but staying cold.

Today:

After a frosty start, a dry day with sunny spells is expected. This sunshine could be prolonged at times, especially towards the south coast. However it will remain cold, particularly in the easterly breeze. Maximum temperature 4 °C.

Tonight:

It will remain dry and cold overnight, with clear spells developing. These becoming increasingly prolonged, with another widespread sharp frost expected. Minimum temperature -3 °C.

Saturday:

Dry, largely sunny, but also very cold. With winds strengthening, especially along coastal areas, a significant wind chill is expected. This will lead to a raw feel to the day. Maximum temperature 4 °C.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Bitterly cold, with raw winds, and overnight frosts. Largely sunny Sunday, before snow showers spread west overnight. These heavy at times Monday and Tuesday, with some significant accumulations possible.

Updated: 02:13 on Fri 23 Feb 2018 GMT


Here's the weather warning (for most of East Sussex/Kent and just a bit of West Sussex at this stage):

Between 16:00 Mon 26th and 23:55 Tue 27th

Snow showers may become persistent from late Monday afternoon, continuing overnight and throughout Tuesday. There is the potential for travel delays on roads, stranding some vehicles and passengers, as well as delays or cancellations to rail and air travel. Some rural communities could become cut off. Power cuts may also occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-02-26&lat=51.1149&lon=-0.1913

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Pardon the interruption but I love weather talk, can anyone point me in the direction of some good people to follow on "weather Twitter"?

Gavin Partridge is very good
TWO Weather
UK Weather Updates
Weather / Meteo World
Liam Dutton
London and South East Weather
me (Kieron Moorman)

 

[martin tyler]

Friday could bring some mental snow as well by looks of it. The weather outlook guys are quite excited this could be a once in a life time week or so

 

[Napper]

been telling few people at work about this "event " we may get.

Told me its all bollocks , logged into various weather sites and showed me ........... yes cold but only mentions showers.

Love it if this happens

 

[Papa Lazarou]

https://weathertrending.com/2018/02/23/on-the-horizon-historic-cold-spell/

John Hammond's Weather Blog

I expect school closures, as well as major impacts on travel and other infrastructure

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Well it's definitely still ON this morning, all Models agree on bitterly cold air arriving over the SE from Sunday night onwards. On Monday I would expect to see reports of snow flurries in Sussex with the chance of a Thames Streamer setting up from Monday evening - difficult to say which areas will be affected as depends on wind direction.

Continuing with Snow showers Tue/Wed, anywhere really.

The end of next week is still up in the air, some models see a LP coming up from the south with subsequent blizzard overnight Thurs and most of the day Friday.
Then we COULD see some milder air coming up after it.

Other Models don't develop this LP so much and has it missing us, however this means we keep the East/North Eastler airstream so still very cold.

One thing to mindful of on Wed/Thur next week, this is when we're supposed to be getting the coldest air, with a Windchill factor of more than -10! Which is dangerous conditions to be out and about in. One to keep an eye on.

I've started to get a bit excited about next week, I will be very disappointed if I don't see lying snow around here!

Plus there's a game tomorrow to go to!

A good summary. Thursday into Friday could be quite disruptive IF we get the right alignment of the low to the South.

 

[LamieRobertson]

A good summary. Thursday into Friday could be quite disruptive IF we get the right alignment of the low to the South.

How’s it looking down the West Country and will I be able to get back here Thursday night

 

[Papa Lazarou]

How’s it looking down the West Country and will I be able to get back here Thursday night

The West Country will likely see some snow Mon - Wed via extended streamers across the UK as the coldest, most unstable air hits us, but IF we get a low to our South Thursday night then the West Country could be in danger of more organised snow.

 

[LamieRobertson]

The West Country will likely see some snow Mon - Wed via extended streamers across the UK as the coldest, most unstable air hits us, but IF we get a low to our South Thursday night then the West Country could be in danger of more organised snow.

Thanks ...I think i’ll hold off from booking anywhere for the moment

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Thanks ...I think i’ll hold off from booking anywhere for the moment

I'd day that's wise for now, as the Thurs / Fri 'event' could deliver snow for the whole of southern England.... in a gale force Easterly with temps close to or below freezing.

 

[Hampden Park]

any white stuff in Brum Papa L?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

any white stuff in Brum Papa L?

As I have said, it's hard to make precise forecasts as the initial snow will be from showers or streamers, so how far inland these penetrate will depend upon:

The wind strength - stronger winds push showers inland quicker before they decay
The air temperature - the colder air will encourage greater instability creating showers over the sea
The sea temperature - the difference between the air temp and the sea temp contributes to the instability of the air
The 'fetch' of the wind - so how far it has to pass over the sea and pick up moisture

This allows streamers and coastal showers to be created, so Mon / Tues / Wed I would expect places such as the East coast (England, Ireland and Scotland) will see almost continual snow showers, so some places could see feet of snow, drifting in the wind. The streamers are what inland areas will rely on initially, as we saw in 2010 here with semi-permanent rows of showers across the SE. These WILL form, but the last variable will determine where these 'point'...

The wind direction - Here, we need something between NE and ENE ideally, as that gives will create streamers off the south North Sea, and Thames Estuary and hit us. For The Midlands I'd expect these features to hit Tuesday / Wednesday, but there WILL be gaps and areas that get missed. So, it will depend on all the variable as to how 'deep' the showers penetrate and where they hit. Same for the West Country.

One final point, for Sussex, we don't really want a direct Easterly without any enhanced features the journey across the Dover Straits will be too short, and we'd get bone dry but cold air.

The next thing to consider is the development of trough lines and enhanced features in the flow. These have the effect of increasing the snow / shower intensity and will allow snow to penetrate further inland. These will show up on the synoptic charts as kinks in the isobars to denote subtle low pressure features, and will appear on the radar as more organised snow.

The last variable is the involvement of low pressure systems nudging in from the South, which all models play with. With the cold air over us, any low passing to our south will throw up a band of snow, which if correctly positioned could give increased Easterly winds and heavy snow. This could affect many of us, if it happens. This is the possible outcome Thursday into Friday.

 

[Hampden Park]

thank you kindly o/

 

[Papa Lazarou]

A good example the possible streamer locations is from today's GFS... Monday lunchtime with a streamer across the SE corner, and another punching into the Midlands.

By Tuesday Morning there are 2 distinct areas across the UK, one down here and another over Northern Eng / S Scotland / N Wales.

By Wednesday we see (on this run a more straight Easterly) and we're in a dry slot, with streams aplenty dotting around the British Isles... over land AND sea. We're in very unstable air here.

And finally, Friday we get the low pressure to the South, and more organised snow possible over the South

 

[FloatLeft]

Over the past few days I’ve literally turned into Ron Lobeck and developed an unhealthy fascination with the white stuff!


Sent from my heart

 

[chucky1973]

Well it's definitely still ON this morning, all Models agree on bitterly cold air arriving over the SE from Sunday night onwards. On Monday I would expect to see reports of snow flurries in Sussex with the chance of a Thames Streamer setting up from Monday evening - difficult to say which areas will be affected as depends on wind direction.

Continuing with Snow showers Tue/Wed, anywhere really.

The end of next week is still up in the air, some models see a LP coming up from the south with subsequent blizzard overnight Thurs and most of the day Friday.
Then we COULD see some milder air coming up after it.

Other Models don't develop this LP so much and has it missing us, however this means we keep the East/North Eastler airstream so still very cold.

One thing to mindful of on Wed/Thur next week, this is when we're supposed to be getting the coldest air, with a Windchill factor of more than -10! Which is dangerous conditions to be out and about in. One to keep an eye on.

I've started to get a bit excited about next week, I will be very disappointed if I don't see lying snow around here!

Plus there's a game tomorrow to go to!

What is the Thames Streamer?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

What is the Thames Streamer?

It's a specific example of lake effect snow, with the Thames Estuary operating as a source of friction to encourage atmospheric instability

Land mass to encourage uplift or convergence. The friction encountered as the air hits the land, slows everything down, it all piles up, has to go up and precipitation results. Or it can get forced down a river valley with the air flow coming together and again the only way is up. This leads to Streamers, known along the Thames or across Kent when snow showers just keep on coming and high accumulations result.

See here.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-f...ffect-snow-very-cold-air-across-the-north-sea

 

[casbom]

What is the Thames Streamer?

Hi Mate, Papa has covered it off nicely!

For you and me here, a Thames Streamer would be good for us. Think back to Feb 09 when we got 6 or 7 inches of snow, that was from a Thames Streamer.

This set up is different to 09 in that this time we've got a bigger temp differential (Uppers around -15, sea temp around 7c) which should in theory create heavier snow showers and dump more snow if a stream of showers sets up. This would also benefit West Sussex more as the heavier snow showers can get across more easily.