[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Withdean11]

A good example the possible streamer locations is from today's GFS... Monday lunchtime with a streamer across the SE corner, and another punching into the Midlands.

By Tuesday Morning there are 2 distinct areas across the UK, one down here and another over Northern Eng / S Scotland / N Wales.

By Wednesday we see (on this run a more straight Easterly) and we're in a dry slot, with streams aplenty dotting around the British Isles... over land AND sea. We're in very unstable air here.

And finally, Friday we get the low pressure to the South, and more organised snow possible over the South

I may be reading this wrong, but is that saying we should be getting no more than 5mm over a 6 hour period? Bit of a non-event then?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I may be reading this wrong, but is that saying we should be getting no more than 5mm over a 6 hour period? Bit of a non-event then?

That's 5mm of rain equivalent, which on average will give 5cm of snow.

 

[Postman Pat]

That's 5mm of rain equivalent, which on average will give 5cm of snow.

I know its a way out, but do you think there would be enough snow to put the Arsenal game at risk if those projections were to happen?

 

[Withdean11]

That's 5mm of rain equivalent, which on average will give 5cm of snow.

Ah, got it. Cheers.

 

[LamieRobertson]

To think a week Monday i’ll be getting the mowers out for grass cutting..hmmm

 

[spongy]

Is this REALLY going to happen? I'm moving house next thurs/fri/sat. I CAN'T have snow. It'll be the end of me. I'm bloody stressed enough as it is.

 

[Djmiles]

Is this REALLY going to happen? I'm moving house next thurs/fri/sat. I CAN'T have snow. It'll be the end of me. I'm bloody stressed enough as it is.

I don’t like your chances...

 

[dazzer6666]

To think a week Monday i’ll be getting the mowers out for grass cutting..hmmm

Only in Newhaven

Sent from my E5823 using Tapatalk

 

[martin tyler]

Is this REALLY going to happen? I'm moving house next thurs/fri/sat. I CAN'T have snow. It'll be the end of me. I'm bloody stressed enough as it is.

Ouch. Thursday/Friday is marginal but som models really showing a snow flumpage. Could get messy

 

[Giraffe]

As I have said, it's hard to make precise forecasts as the initial snow will be from showers or streamers, so how far inland these penetrate will depend upon:

The wind strength - stronger winds push showers inland quicker before they decay
The air temperature - the colder air will encourage greater instability creating showers over the sea
The sea temperature - the difference between the air temp and the sea temp contributes to the instability of the air
The 'fetch' of the wind - so how far it has to pass over the sea and pick up moisture

This allows streamers and coastal showers to be created, so Mon / Tues / Wed I would expect places such as the East coast (England, Ireland and Scotland) will see almost continual snow showers, so some places could see feet of snow, drifting in the wind. The streamers are what inland areas will rely on initially, as we saw in 2010 here with semi-permanent rows of showers across the SE. These WILL form, but the last variable will determine where these 'point'...

The wind direction - Here, we need something between NE and ENE ideally, as that gives will create streamers off the south North Sea, and Thames Estuary and hit us. For The Midlands I'd expect these features to hit Tuesday / Wednesday, but there WILL be gaps and areas that get missed. So, it will depend on all the variable as to how 'deep' the showers penetrate and where they hit. Same for the West Country.

One final point, for Sussex, we don't really want a direct Easterly without any enhanced features the journey across the Dover Straits will be too short, and we'd get bone dry but cold air.

The next thing to consider is the development of trough lines and enhanced features in the flow. These have the effect of increasing the snow / shower intensity and will allow snow to penetrate further inland. These will show up on the synoptic charts as kinks in the isobars to denote subtle low pressure features, and will appear on the radar as more organised snow.

The last variable is the involvement of low pressure systems nudging in from the South, which all models play with. With the cold air over us, any low passing to our south will throw up a band of snow, which if correctly positioned could give increased Easterly winds and heavy snow. This could affect many of us, if it happens. This is the possible outcome Thursday into Friday.

I have to say regardless of whether we actually get any snow or not I am loving your analysis. Very clear and understandable.

It deserves some white stuff as a reward! The cold and wet kind.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I have to say regardless of whether we actually get any snow or not I am loving your analysis. Very clear and understandable.

It deserves some white stuff as a reward! The cold and wet kind.

Not wet. Powder (snow) would be perfect at least to start.

 

[vegster]

That's 5mm of rain equivalent, which on average will give 5cm of snow.

I remember once being told 1" rain = 6" snow ... is that right .. ish ?

 

[Djmiles]

I remember once being told 1" rain = 6" snow ... is that right .. ish ?

Generally 1mm of rain is 1cm of snow. I think.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I remember once being told 1" rain = 6" snow ... is that right .. ish ?

Well, on average, it works out as 1:10 rain: snow, so 1 inch = 10 inches, so not quite a foot.

 

[vegster]

Well, on average, it works out as 1:10 rain: snow, so 1 inch = 10 inches, so not quite a foot.

Thanks, quite a good return then for a bit of rain

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Not wet. Powder (snow) would be perfect at least to start.

https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/966653244805181440

[tweet]966653244805181440[/tweet]

 

[Is it PotG?]

Next Thursday...brass monkeys

 

[vegster]

Next Thursday...brass monkeys

View attachment 94467

-1 degree, how will we cope ?

 

[Is it PotG?]

-1 degree, how will we cope ?

Not sure yet. I have emptied Waitrose of Pot Noodles and Big Soups tonight.

 

[vegster]

Not sure yet. I have emptied Waitrose of Pot Noodles and Big Soups tonight.

Chicken and Vegetable Big Soup with a pinch of chilli flakes is antifreeze for humans.