[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

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Papa Lazarou

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
casbom said:
Yep, the models are having a mare!
Thought Nick F's blog this morning helps set the scene so to speak as to why the Models are all over the place:

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-f...tospheric-warming-brings-weather-model-mayhem

I'm tempted to stay away from the forums until Sunday night at this rate!
Click to expand...

The latest GFS Op doesn't support the ECM, so no clarity yet (until ECM republished this evening)

Edit to add: The GFS Op has air from North Africa over us by a week's time. It'll feel like summer.
 


casbom

casbom

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
2,598
Papa Lazarou said:
The latest GFS Op doesn't support the ECM, so no clarity yet (until ECM republished this evening)

Edit to add: The GFS Op has air from North Africa over us by a week's time. It'll feel like summer.
Click to expand...

To be fair if we're not going to get a screaming easterly then bring on Spring!
 


Papa Lazarou

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
casbom said:
To be fair if we're not going to get a screaming easterly then bring on Spring!
Click to expand...

Hell yes. Just walked the dog and it's bloody gorgeous out there today.

IF the GFS Op went as suggested, AND we were in July for example, that would be 35C plus here with thunderstorms developing over N France. Perfick summer setup, hence we get it now.

What I expect will happen in lots of northern blocking and southerly jet positioning in the summer, giving cold and wet weather. That would be typical.
 








Papa Lazarou

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
If anything illustrates the divergence between the GFS (NCEP) and ECMWF this chart shows it clearly. The blue line is the GFS Op... and the red line the ECM Op. This shows ground temps.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif
 








Audax

Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
3,263
Uckfield
Papa Lazarou said:
the Monday 'tipping point' is approaching
Click to expand...

Yup, and theoretically the Saturday model runs should start giving us a much better idea of what will happen Monday (and thereafter it should hopefully clarify the longer range as well). Note how that chart [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] posted the models have very tight agreement through to Sunday, but then start to scatter from Monday onwards. GFS OP is a notable "warm outlier" even for the weekend, then goes off almost on its own for the period 20th through 25th.

ECM Op was up there with the GFS op a few days back as well, but the last few runs it's adjusted and is tracking the ensemble means fairly well and even looks like it wants to look at the possibility of "ice days" at the end of the run. 10 days out is massively unreliable, especially prior to Monday, though, so would be surprised if that verifies.If it does, though, there's the potential for some good snow.
 


Papa Lazarou

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
Audax said:
Yup, and theoretically the Saturday model runs should start giving us a much better idea of what will happen Monday (and thereafter it should hopefully clarify the longer range as well). Note how that chart [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] posted the models have very tight agreement through to Sunday, but then start to scatter from Monday onwards. GFS OP is a notable "warm outlier" even for the weekend, then goes off almost on its own for the period 20th through 25th.

ECM Op was up there with the GFS op a few days back as well, but the last few runs it's adjusted and is tracking the ensemble means fairly well and even looks like it wants to look at the possibility of "ice days" at the end of the run. 10 days out is massively unreliable, especially prior to Monday, though, so would be surprised if that verifies.If it does, though, there's the potential for some good snow.
Click to expand...

When you overlay the GFS and ECM ensemble it does look like the cold cluster is the front runner. That is skewed somewhat by fact that the ECM has 52 ensemble members, compared to the GFS which has 22. Even so, if the cold option was favoured, you'd expect a good number of ECM members to be trending that way.

Not long now until we find out, as [MENTION=33374]Audax[/MENTION] has mentioned.
 














Uncle Spielberg

Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
43,094
Lancing
dazzer6666 said:
That's a proper 'Beast from the East' type thing isn't it ???
Click to expand...

Just weather porn. Not a chance of this happening. Spring is here. Warm sun now, flowers and bees out today and more of the same for the next week. Metcheck got us going to 14 c next week, that is what is going to happen and I am pleased as want some decent weather now
 








Papa Lazarou

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
Uncle Spielberg said:
Just weather porn. Not a chance of this happening. Spring is here. Warm sun now, flowers and bees out today and more of the same for the next week. Metcheck got us going to 14 c next week, that is what is going to happen and I am pleased as want some decent weather now
Click to expand...

Which is in line with your earlier forecast for the next fortnight, as we discussed before.
 


Papa Lazarou

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
Well, well, well.

The 12Z ECM is a Snowfest for us, were it to happen

Wow.gif
 


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