[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[LamieRobertson]

Tad windy out

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Ok, we'll just have to see. So, you're forecast is daytime max temps no lower than 6C for the next fortnight (the max range of the ensemble)?

To be fair I think I have been proved right every time. Just cannot see this, far too late and if you look at europe end of next week, paris is showing 11 c everyday and the whole of continental europe is showing very mild. I think it is all a nonsense

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Ok, we'll just have to see. So, you're forecast is daytime max temps no lower than 6C for the next fortnight (the max range of the ensemble)?

Yes, in fact more likely 8 c - 12 c

 

[Bozza]

To be fair I think I have been proved right every time. Just cannot see this, far too late and if you look at europe end of next week, paris is showing 11 c everyday and the whole of continental europe is showing very mild. I think it is all a nonsense

Anyone can say "there'll be no snow in coastal Sussex" and be right nearly all the time, because that is the default for where we live.

Anyone could also look at the BBC (or similar) forecasts and say "It's going to be mild, wet and there'll be no snow".

I certainly appreciate [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION], and others, who go a few steps beyond this and look at models that I don't understand at all, read them and provide an insight as to what could happen. It's a big "could", of course, because of my first point.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Yes, in fact more likely 8 c - 12 c

Are you talking Newhaven specifically, or the whole of the Sussex coast?

 

[BigGully]

Yes, in fact more likely 8 c - 12 c

I agree with Bozza, but US does make me smile although I am a cold/snow lover and late February absolutely can deliver that's just a fact but is always unlikely so he is backing an odds on favourite, to be fair he has put some specific temps. for the next fortnight that is totally accountable and doesn't involve the evasive snowflake, if he is right then fair play if he is not we can all hammer him

 

[Audax]

We ALL know absolutely NOTHING will come of this, when will people learn ! The forecasts show 10c for the rest of the month. As I said even if we get an easterly there is no cold anywhere across europe, it has been another very mild winter so it would result in daytime max's of 6-8 c

The forecasts do not yet have a handle on the effects of the SSW. It's *far* too early to be looking at any forecasts beyond the next few days and drawing any conclusions. Last I looked last night on the netweather forums, the models were still very early in the process of 'correcting' themselves as the first real world data on what the SSW is doing have started coming in. From what I was looking at yesterday, this is looking like a record breaking SSW event as well, so it's going to take a while before we see the models start to narrow in on a general consensus.

It is, of course, all subject to change. BUT to say that late Feb / early March is "too late" flies in the face of what we've seen in the last decade: there's been a good number of significant snow events in the SE that have happened in March.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Are you talking Newhaven specifically, or the whole of the Sussex coast?

The whole of southern england. It has been another very mild winter, the average day time temperature for January was 10.5 c

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Anyone can say "there'll be no snow in coastal Sussex" and be right nearly all the time, because that is the default for where we live.

Anyone could also look at the BBC (or similar) forecasts and say "It's going to be mild, wet and there'll be no snow".

I certainly appreciate [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION], and others, who go a few steps beyond this and look at models that I don't understand at all, read them and provide an insight as to what could happen. It's a big "could", of course, because of my first point.

Thanks. It's obviously something I enjoy doing, and I do enjoy sharing my insight with others, especially when it adds more value than the simple 5-Day automated forecasts, which are as unreliable as they come.

Thanks is also due to the other model watchers and closet weather forecasters on here:
[MENTION=1933]Yoda[/MENTION] [MENTION=7321]casbom[/MENTION] [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] [MENTION=240]larus[/MENTION] [MENTION=33374]Audax[/MENTION]

Sorry if I've missed anyone.

Anyhow, the latest GFS is rolling out - let's see what that brings - it would be nice to get some semblance of model agreement on next week's synoptics.

 

[casbom]

Thanks. It's obviously something I enjoy doing, and I do enjoy sharing my insight with others, especially when it adds more value than the simple 5-Day automated forecasts, which are as unreliable as they come.

Thanks is also due to the other model watchers and closet weather forecasters on here:
[MENTION=1933]Yoda[/MENTION] [MENTION=7321]casbom[/MENTION] [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] [MENTION=240]larus[/MENTION] [MENTION=33374]Audax[/MENTION]

Sorry if I've missed anyone.

Anyhow, the latest GFS is rolling out - let's see what that brings - it would be nice to get some semblance of model agreement on next week's synoptics.

Thanks Papa! Yes I'm keeping my powder dry at this stage as don't want to get too excited about what could be happening from mid next week. Been burnt too many times.

However with this (record) SSW happening the models are going to flip flop as they have to guess what the outcome is from this event. Based on this and the strong phase 7 of MJO, they both indicate High pressure to migrate through the UK to end up to our North East. How high this HP goes will result in what type of weather we get.

If it gets high enough above the UK, we will draw in bitter easterly winds, however if it can't get high enough up and stays over us, we end up with dry conditions and average temps (ish).

At the moment the favoured outcome is for the HP to migrate far enough to our NE to bring those Easterlies from mid to end of next week. Thereafter there are hints that this could move to the NW and end up over Greenland - if this happens then Winter is extended into March (think 2013).

I'm certainly keeping one eye on the Swansea game, I'm able to go that game and the last thing I want is for it to be called off!

 

[Audax]

Thanks. It's obviously something I enjoy doing, and I do enjoy sharing my insight with others, especially when it adds more value than the simple 5-Day automated forecasts, which are as unreliable as they come.

Thanks is also due to the other model watchers and closet weather forecasters on here:
[MENTION=1933]Yoda[/MENTION] [MENTION=7321]casbom[/MENTION] [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] [MENTION=240]larus[/MENTION] [MENTION=33374]Audax[/MENTION]

Sorry if I've missed anyone.

Anyhow, the latest GFS is rolling out - let's see what that brings - it would be nice to get some semblance of model agreement on next week's synoptics.

[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] Thanks, but I'm what you'd call a very casual / amateur watcher. I know enough to know that when you have major atmospheric changes like what this SSW is going to generate means that forecasts beyond the next day or two are useless. Just been over to netweather to catch up, it seems the more expert model readers over there are getting very excited but still holding it in check as the models are still 'settling' into the new atmospherics. Still, looks like we might be getting a strong easterly late Feb that could send temperatures a lot lower. Whether (no pun intended...) or not it produces snow is another matter, that's not something that we'll know until much closer to the time. Here's hoping .

 

[Papa Lazarou]

[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] Thanks, but I'm what you'd call a very casual / amateur watcher. I know enough to know that when you have major atmospheric changes like what this SSW is going to generate means that forecasts beyond the next day or two are useless. Just been over to netweather to catch up, it seems the more expert model readers over there are getting very excited but still holding it in check as the models are still 'settling' into the new atmospherics. Still, looks like we might be getting a strong easterly late Feb that could send temperatures a lot lower. Whether (no pun intended...) or not it produces snow is another matter, that's not something that we'll know until much closer to the time. Here's hoping .

The latest GFS Op run shows how it can go wrong, as the high stays a little to south, and cuts off the really cold air from the NE. We do get some snow, but then the air from the ESE warms up and south of the M4 gets rain. The ECM this morning was ideal. Got to see the ensemble now!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

To illustrate just how uncertain things are, BUT the potential - the GFS Control run would give us days of snow and temps close to zero C



Just for fun of course.

 

[Giraffe]

I’ve never known as much hail as we have had in the last few days. Last night in Findon it was as though it had snowed in places and it was still lying in parts of our drive this morning. A poor substitute for the real thing but interesting to see nonetheless.

 

[Bozza]

I’ve never known as much hail as we have had in the last few days. Last night in Findon it was as though it had snowed in places and it was still lying in parts of our drive this morning. A poor substitute for the real thing but interesting to see nonetheless.

Agreed. We had a big shower on Sunday and the same one you mentioned yesterday evening. I needed to pop down the shops a while after and in places it was like walking over crushed broken glass.

 

[Giraffe]

Agreed. We had a big shower on Sunday and the same one you mentioned yesterday evening. I needed to pop down the shops a while after and in places it was like walking over crushed broken glass.

I momentarily considered making a “Hailman” but thought better of it!

 

[Lady Whistledown]

Ok, we'll just have to see. So, you're forecast is daytime max temps no lower than 6C for the next fortnight (the max range of the ensemble)?

It snowed quite heavily in places last night- the roads around Heathfield in particular were quite treacherous in the early hours. I've no doubt it will all have melted well before dawn, however, so you'll just have to take my word for it

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Agreed. We had a big shower on Sunday and the same one you mentioned yesterday evening. I needed to pop down the shops a while after and in places it was like walking over crushed broken glass.

Was that just outside the Valley Bar?

 

[Audax]

The latest GFS Op run shows how it can go wrong, as the high stays a little to south, and cuts off the really cold air from the NE. We do get some snow, but then the air from the ESE warms up and south of the M4 gets rain. The ECM this morning was ideal. Got to see the ensemble now!

Yeah, looks like a growing consensus that we'll get "an" easterly of some sort. Question is, will it be the Beast or will it be one of those disappointing ones that comes from too far south. If I'm honest, I don't much care if any snow we get is transitory as long as we get enough that my 2 year old can go out and build his first snowman. And timed so that I can do it with him (so on a Fri/Sat/Sun). Beyond that, I work just north of the M4 and just inside J16 of the M25. Depending on where and when any snow hits it can make travel interesting ... last winter I got caught out after it rained all day then turned to snow as the sun set. M25 all the way around to J9 was rain with a bit of sleet mixed in. J9 was a backed up mess as two lanes were closed by flooding. J9 onwards was increasing snow, eventually leaving me stuck in a queue for the J6 slip road, which was blocked because traffic couldn't get up the northbound A22 hill. Once I got out of that, heading south down the A22 was mostly clear until the stretch between East Grinstead and Nutley, which was lined by a range of abandoned vehicles left in interesting places (but had cleared enough by the time I got there it was no problem).

I’ve never known as much hail as we have had in the last few days. Last night in Findon it was as though it had snowed in places and it was still lying in parts of our drive this morning. A poor substitute for the real thing but interesting to see nonetheless.

Had two hail showers back-to-back in Uckfield on Sunday. Neither were particularly heavy or prolonged, but was enough to whet the appetite for some proper wintry weather.

 

[Giraffe]

Was that just outside the Valley Bar?

I see what you’ve done there.