[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Audax]

Models are still showing so much scatter in their output there's no way a forecast beyond a few days is reliable.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

BBC showing double figures by day here until the end of next week now, that takes us to 23 rd Feb. They are giving no indication of anything remotely cold for the rest of the month. Am I missing something ?

 

[Dr Bandler]

BBC showing double figures by day here until the end of next week now, that takes us to 23 rd Feb. They are giving no indication of anything remotely cold for the rest of the month. Am I missing something ?

People on Netweather.tv still saying the models are pointing to potentially very cold an snowy conditions starting late next week. BBC will be on time delay for this - although I understand one of their TV forecasters did say that something colder is coming.

 

[Audax]

BBC showing double figures by day here until the end of next week now, that takes us to 23 rd Feb. They are giving no indication of anything remotely cold for the rest of the month. Am I missing something ?

Gonna say it again: the modelling is *still* subject to a lot of scatter, with the result being that forecasting beyond the next few days is based on each forecasting group taking a punt on which models are more likely to verify. BBC have switched from using MetOffice forecasts to using MeteoGroup, and from what I can see they're currently erring on the side of the warmer models and discounting the colder ones - the MetOffice forecasts for Uckfield are colder than BBC (out to the 20th), and the netweather "forecast" (it's actually just autogenerated from the model results) is suggesting we'll be heading for colder conditions from around the 21st culminating in currently suggesting a sustained snow event on the afternoon of the 27th (note: netweather's forecast will flip-flop numerous times between now and then, depending on what the models do. But what I am seeing from watching them is that over the last few days they've been gradually trending towards being more likely to show colder weather.)

The effects of an SSW take time to be felt in the lower atmosphere usually, and it's looking like this SSW will be no different (despite being a bit of a record breaker). It'll be late Feb and into March that we're most likely to see the coldest weather and highest chances for snow.





Edit: Actually, go take a look at the long-range BBC text forecast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook. In particular the 19-25 Feb outlook, and then the 26th and beyond outlook. Both are talking about potential cold drawn in by easterly winds and prospects for snow showers. You've got to look deeper than the "headline" temperatures on the main weather page.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

As [MENTION=33374]Audax[/MENTION] has said there is still huge scatter in the models.

 

[Yoda]

As [MENTION=33374]Audax[/MENTION] has said there is still huge scatter in the models.

HUGE is an understatement. Not seen the 12z GEFS Ensemble charts yet but the 06z had the 850hpa as high as +7 degrees and as low as -15 during that period we're looking at.

 

[Giraffe]

I know that I will sound a little mad, but the current weather is very odd isn't it. Consisently cold days of around 4 degrees but with rain. It just doesn't feel right. A few drier days coming up but cant help but feel that we are some way from heading into spring, whereas this time last year I think we were really writing the winter off.

 

[portslade seagull]

Bloomin freezing out there today on my lunchtime walk.

 

[Audax]

HUGE is an understatement. Not seen the 12z GEFS Ensemble charts yet but the 06z had the 850hpa as high as +7 degrees and as low as -15 during that period we're looking at.

Models are *still* all over the place this morning even. The "lesser" models seem to have latched onto the cold arriving earlier, while the main runs from the ECM and GFS are right at the warmer side of their ranges. Still plenty of scatter in the ensembles, and seeing some rapid flip-flopping change in some of the models further out in the runs.

From reading on netweather, it looks like it all hinges on some specific patterns either developing or not developing, and the modelling is rather unsure which way it's going to go. GFS and ECM main runs think the evolution will be on the warm side, but the mean from their ensemble runs suggests much colder. Very little agreement between models beyond the next 4 days...

 

[Giraffe]

Models are *still* all over the place this morning even. The "lesser" models seem to have latched onto the cold arriving earlier, while the main runs from the ECM and GFS are right at the warmer side of their ranges. Still plenty of scatter in the ensembles, and seeing some rapid flip-flopping change in some of the models further out in the runs.

From reading on netweather, it looks like it all hinges on some specific patterns either developing or not developing, and the modelling is rather unsure which way it's going to go. GFS and ECM main runs think the evolution will be on the warm side, but the mean from their ensemble runs suggests much colder. Very little agreement between models beyond the next 4 days...

There does seem to be edging towards warmer weather again doesn't there. I find it odd how it changes so much from each update, but as always snow can only really be predicted in the very short term and they are trying to look ahead 9-10 days. The trend is edging warmer rather than colder though I fear but fingers crossed that changes.

 

[Mr Bridger]

HUGE is an understatement. Not seen the 12z GEFS Ensemble charts yet but the 06z had the 850hpa as high as +7 degrees and as low as -15 during that period we're looking at.

That is just like listening to the commentary to the half pipe snowboarding.
Haven’t got. Scooby.

 

[Audax]

There does seem to be edging towards warmer weather again doesn't there. I find it odd how it changes so much from each update, but as always snow can only really be predicted in the very short term and they are trying to look ahead 9-10 days. The trend is edging warmer rather than colder though I fear but fingers crossed that changes.

GFS and, in particular, ECM are both edging warmer (widely regarded as two of the main three to watch). But ECM has been horribly unreliable this winter, and the ECM Op is apparently a warm outlier compared to its ensembles (which are majority favouring colder, snowier, conditions). Apparently BBC's forecasts rely entirely on ECM, so that clears up why they're sticking with the warmer temps through next week.

All the other models (eg UKMO, JMA, etc) appear to be favouring cold.

Either solution could be correct at this point, which is incredibly frustrating

 

[Conelli98]

...it’s on its way...winter finally arriving Feb 27th onwards. Get the shovels and sleighs ready.

 

[Peteinblack]

Met Office reckons that the bitterly cold easterlies and snow are due from the end of next week.

 

[martin tyler]

Met Office reckons that the bitterly cold easterlies and snow are due from the end of next week.

View attachment 94240

Not sure this is going to happen. Most Models suggest cold air much further south than us at this time although there is still some variation between them. I think [MENTION=3887]Uncle Spielberg[/MENTION] is going to be right at this time and we will get warmer Atlantic air. There is still hope as the models change so much and to be honest are 3/4 days ahead the variation is massive.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Acrually I am hoping the east does not come off now as it is 1 month too late, so all we would get is miserable days, cloudy with a bit of rain and sleet and 5 c daytime max, nowhere near cold enough for any snow event or prolonged cold, I would rather the models showing sun and 14 c for late feb and bring on spring

 

[Jack Straw]

HUGE is an understatement. Not seen the 12z GEFS Ensemble charts yet but the 06z had the 850hpa as high as +7 degrees and as low as -15 during that period we're looking at.

That is just like listening to the commentary to the half pipe snowboarding.
Haven’t got. Scooby.

Reminds me of a Terre-a-Terre menu.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

It's a nightmare for the pro forecasters at the moment. GFS has all but given up on the Easterly next week, and the publicly available UKMO output supports this. However the ECM shows cold air from Tuesday and possibly lots of snow and the ensemble supports that!

 

[Audax]

Acrually I am hoping the east does not come off now as it is 1 month too late, so all we would get is miserable days, cloudy with a bit of rain and sleet and 5 c daytime max, nowhere near cold enough for any snow event or prolonged cold, I would rather the models showing sun and 14 c for late feb and bring on spring

March is not too late for major snow events. Having said that, the modelling currently is very finely balanced. We could land with a proper easterly drawing in frigid air that supports good snow falls in the SE, or we could get an easterly drawing from too far south and it doesn't get as cold as needed, or we could get the Atlantic forcing its way back into dominance.

It's a nightmare for the pro forecasters at the moment. GFS has all but given up on the Easterly next week, and the publicly available UKMO output supports this. However the ECM shows cold air from Tuesday and possibly lots of snow and the ensemble supports that!

There's more flip-flops in the modelling than you'd find on an Australian beach at the moment. I'm struggling to keep up ... could go either way, but in the short range and the long range. Netweather community are in basic agreement that anything beyond the next 3 days is going to be a right pain to predict. Pretty much "pick a model and hope you picked the right one".

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The whole evolution to cold or mild appears to hinge on something that will happen on Monday.

The ridge of High pressure from the Azores will be as the ECM shows below:



We have a low pressure to the West of us sending some 'energy' over the top of the high in the form of a narrow trough which shows as a wedge shape on the chart.

Everything hinges on how much 'energy' or low pressure is able to follow that path and reach the E of the high.

The only member of the GFS to achieve this shows it very well as a discrete low to our E



None of the other GFS members quite get it right. The Operational does this



Whereas the cold run does this



And importantly the ECM (supported by its ensemble) does this also, which opens the door to a very cold / snowy easterly.



So, we WILL know one way or another soon, as the tipping point approaches...