[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Giraffe]

Snowmeggedon

 

[Jam The Man]

There is about 1 cm of snow for the first time in over 7 years which will be gone by 10 am, let's not get too over excited

Didn’t we have a few inches in Feb 2013 GG?
I recall it taking 3 hours to drive from Lewes to Worthing, via Portslade, on the last day before my wife’s maternity leave ended..

 

[Stumpy Tim]

There is about 1 cm of snow for the first time in over 7 years which will be gone by 10 am, let's not get too over excited

The last snow in Brighton was 2013. Coincidentally I was going through my 2013 photo album just last night and saw the photos.

I hate snow anyway!

 

[Plake]

No. You are both wrong. It’s been 7 years. US has spoken. Or tapped it out with his headwand or something.

 

[larus]

Lots of chat on NetWeather forums about a SSW and the possible onset of the “Beast From The East”. Even some of the more reasoned posters are getting excited about this.

Saying this is the most extreme splitting/warming of stratosphere in last 40 odd years. The warming is meant to be happening over the next few days, but the models are struggling to know exactly what the impact will be. The main effect is the reversal of the prevailing winds from SW to Easterlies.

Well, that’s what I’ve picked up anyway - could be a load of b*llocks

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Lots of chat on NetWeather forums about a SSW and the possible onset of the “Beast From The East”. Even some of the more reasoned posters are getting excited about this.

Saying this is the most extreme splitting/warming of stratosphere in last 40 odd years. The warming is meant to be happening over the next few days, but the models are struggling to know exactly what the impact will be. The main effect is the reversal of the prevailing winds from SW to Easterlies.

Well, that’s what I’ve picked up anyway - could be a load of b*llocks

If it happens, it is far too late now

 

[supaseagull]

If it happens, it is far too late now

It really isn’t and you know that.


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[Uncle Spielberg]

It really isn’t and you know that.


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It is, we are talking late feb / early mar, that is too late as the sun is much warmer, average temps are 9-10 c, so a cold day with be considered 5 c, the window of opportunity for cold days around freezing or just above and lying snow is mid dec - mid feb

 

[larus]

It is, we are talking late feb / early mar, that is too late as the sun is much warmer, average temps are 9-10 c, so a cold day with be considered 5 c, the window of opportunity for cold days around freezing or just above and lying snow is mid dec - mid feb

Er, what you posted is crap. The reason we’re so mild is the direction of the prevailing winds; i.e. SW. This makes our climate more temperate then equivalent places at the same latitude.

So, if we get a SSW and this does (big if) change the prevailing wind direction to an easterly and we get cold winds blowing from Siberia, even in Feb/Mar this can lead to very extreme conditions.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Er, what you posted is crap. The reason we’re so mild is the direction of the prevailing winds; i.e. SW. This makes our climate more temperate then equivalent places at the same latitude.

So, if we get a SSW and this does (big if) change the prevailing wind direction to an easterly and we get cold winds blowing from Siberia, even in Feb/Mar this can lead to very extreme conditions.

The last time we had these conditions in late feb was 30 years ago. We will not see day temps max of lower than 5 c late feb / early mar, no chance

 

[Postman Pat]

It is, we are talking late feb / early mar, that is too late as the sun is much warmer, average temps are 9-10 c, so a cold day with be considered 5 c, the window of opportunity for cold days around freezing or just above and lying snow is mid dec - mid feb

I had to sleep on the A23 because of the snow on 11th March 2013. That was pretty cold.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

We all know this will come to nothing. We have had 8 years of this thread and it has been 99% of charts and fantasy's which always, always turn out to be nonsense

 

[Tricky Dicky]

I had to sleep on the A23 because of the snow on 11th March 2013. That was pretty cold.

Must have been cold lying on that tarmac, and pretty dangerous too. Which lane were you lying in ?
.

 

[Plake]

We all know this will come to nothing. We have had 8 years of this thread and it has been 99% of charts and fantasy's which always, always turn out to be nonsense

You must wonder why you keep coming back to it.

I know everyone else does.

 

[Giraffe]

We all know this will come to nothing. We have had 8 years of this thread and it has been 99% of charts and fantasy's which always, always turn out to be nonsense

I think your role as pantomime villain adds a lot to this thread. Keep it up.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

In this specific instance I tend to agree with [MENTION=3887]Uncle Spielberg[/MENTION]

Despite some good looking upper air temps in the forecast:



With -10c being hit at times (at 850hpa) for Worthing, the actual temperatures forecast on the ground down here (at this time of year) will give us a diurnal range of something like 5C to 0C .. perhaps a degree colder if we're lucky. This will be mainly due to the increased strength of the sun in late Feb. See below for the temp forecast:




With the increased sun strength we will see better convection, so we may see an April showers type situation (very much like today), and undoubtedly there will be snow in some showers, perhaps hail or graupel too, but unless we get more organised precipitation at the perfect time we're unlikely to see anything settling.

Actually take today as a good example. We have 850hpa temps dropping from about -6 to about -9C by midnight. From this, it's currently 7C here in Worthing, but later on I expect to see a wintry mix in any showers as the local temp will drop as they arrive, but I don't expect anything to settle (for long).. and surely, for most of us, days of falling snow that doesn't settle is pointless, right?

This all said, we may see something colder... I'd say we need upper temps of -12c at least to get cold enough air at the surface, which we COULD get, but it isn't appearing in the model output currently.

 

[Dr Bandler]

Hi Papa,

Surely it is possible to have freezing temperatures by day in late Feb / early March in Sussex to allow snow to settle? I seem to remember such conditions 45 years ago from my childhood. Many people are making the point about the strength of the sun, but aren't there two scenarios that would trump that:

1. a continuous feed of cloud cover from the east, thereby negating any solar impact
2. air coming from deep in the Russian landmass and through Europe.

Either of these scenarios appear unlikely, but I am interested in your opinion as to the feasibility of my thinking.

 

[banjo]

Forget the bloody cold, when’s summer coming.

 

[CorgiRegisteredFriend]

If you think it’s bloody cold check out the Winter Olympics

 

[Giraffe]

A nice strong hail shower in Chichester earlier. (Clutching at straws)