Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Where is the normal path of the El Nino?
[MENTION=3887]Uncle Spielberg[/MENTION] bases his position (if I'm not defaming him) on 'it's always mild in the winter down here', which 90% of the time is a correct guess.
The long range forecasts being generated all seem to suggest that El Nino will produce an unsettled December, with a strong Polar Vortex, which tends to lock cold air up in the Arctic, and generate a strong and flat jet stream. It's not until January when many forecasts are going for a cold spell of perhaps a couple of weeks, with High Pressure to the North of the UK, and cold Easterly winds.
My personal view is that we will see high pressure near or over the UK to the south within the next 10 days, so we'll see some benign weather, with frost possible, with more unsettled weather the further north, with other periods of more unsettled weather as the high relents and allows storms to zip across the UK.
There is a chance of snow further north Friday into the weekend as we get some cold Polar Maritime air behind a cold front.
There's little sign of anything notably cold down here on the horizon, although even with a fully flowing Atlantic train of storms, you can still get cold periods arising, but that is less likely.
The models will change though and we're still a month away from Xmas, so lots can and will change.
If anything 'juicy' appears I'm sure our resident weather watchers will mention it.
Until then [MENTION=3887]Uncle Spielberg[/MENTION] is on the money.
.
