[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[LamieRobertson]

The award-winning official "More snow tomorrow?" thread [2012-13 season]

I'm going to Bath weekend before Xmas ..can I hav a forecast ..plus I need a couple of weeks clear of snow so I can get my work done!

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

Which do you get? I'm normally on the 06:30

Normally the6.51 from the heath, so probably the same one as you. Though today I was on the 7.03.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Just started snowing in Crap Town

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Anyone think the latest Operational run is an outlier, at least temperature wise?

 

[supaseagull]

The award-winning official "More snow tomorrow?" thread [2012-13 season]

Anyone think the latest Operational run is an outlier, at least temperature wise?

View attachment 37316

Can you translate into "thick twat" for me please?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Ok, I'll try. Been out for an Xmas work do, so lacking technology and sobriety.

The plot above is an ensemble view of the latest GFS model forecast, which is a US based forecast, which runs every 6 hours, and goes out to 384 hours (roughly 2 weeks).

It comprises an Operational run (thick black line), which is the one published online, which is the one run at the highest resolution, plus a control run (thick blue line), at the same resolution, but slightly different parameters, and then 20 lower resolution variations on the forecast algorithm. This then creates an ensemble view.

The chart I've shown is the 2m temperature and precipitation total chart for the latest run, worthing.

The thick black line is showing much higher temps than all others from about half way through, until the end.

So, it's either found a new solution, or it's wrong.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

We now have cross model support, and some of the output is incredible for Cold and Snow. I'm sure there will be twists and turns in terms of details, but expect to start to see some mention if much colder weather next week in the broadcast forecasts soon.

The Beast is waking.

 

[Flex Your Head]

We now have cross model support, and some of the output is incredible for Cold and Snow. I'm sure there will be twists and turns in terms of details, but expect to start to see some mention if much colder weather next week in the broadcast forecasts soon.

The Beast is waking.

This all sounds very encouraging. With regards to your comment in the post prior to that:
"The thick black line is showing much higher temps than all others from about half way through, until the end. So, it's either found a new solution, or it's wrong."
Was it simply wrong?

I noticed that the BBC are forecasting milder temperatures for the weekend; they're going to plummet again at the start of next week... aren't they?

 

[Deleted member 18477]

This all sounds very encouraging. With regards to your comment in the post prior to that:
"The thick black line is showing much higher temps than all others from about half way through, until the end. So, it's either found a new solution, or it's wrong."
Was it simply wrong?

I noticed that the BBC are forecasting milder temperatures for the weekend; they're going to plummet again at the start of next week... aren't they?

i like snow but i hope it all holds off until at least the weekend before christmas! nightmare to drive to work and get presents etc.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

This all sounds very encouraging. With regards to your comment in the post prior to that:
"The thick black line is showing much higher temps than all others from about half way through, until the end. So, it's either found a new solution, or it's wrong."
Was it simply wrong?

I noticed that the BBC are forecasting milder temperatures for the weekend; they're going to plummet again at the start of next week... aren't they?

Looks that from Monday we're into a colder period, yes.

There is still a chance we'll snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, as long fetch easterlies are hard to come by.

If you look at this morning's GFS ensemble, there are 2 or 3 members that go for a milder route, from about the 9th.



There was an instance in 2009, when we were 'guaranteed' an Easterly, all models agreed, and they remained in agreement right up until 3 days out... there were a couple of ensemble members who saw it different, but they were only 3 or 4.

What happened was they turned out to be correct, the models back-tracked and we ended up with the High pressure over us, and not to the north.

The challenge with this evolution, is we need to 'deal with' 2 low pressures passing the UK before it happens... a lot could still go wrong.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Something big coming in from the east next week, and when we have a flow from the east we are always favoured down here as troughs(features that bring snow in a setup that is forecast) always undercut the block over Scandinavia and head over us. Still not set in stone but I have a reasonable confidence, 75% that we will see a flow from the east with potential for snow and day time temperatures struggling to get above 1c. I'm not Papa I know, but thats my view on it all.

@Papa - Are you by any chance registered on here?

http://forum.netweather.tv

No, I'm not registered in NetWeather, although I know some of the people who post on there.

I'm a member of The Weather Outlook...

Forum is here: TheWeatherOutlook - TheWeatherOutlook discussion forum


Many of the same people post on both.

 

[casbom]

Well it appears ALL models are in agreement for next week, and that is a type of easterly is about to occur (could be a North Easterly, straight easterly or South easterly...or all three during the week) What we don't know is how cold it's going to get, and how much snow.

These should be firmed up over the weekend, but at the moment I would say temps around or just above freezing frm Tues onwards till at least Sat, with snow showers starting to fall from Tues onwards as well from the east.

Whisper it, but it could stay cold right up to and including Xmas....

 

[RowleyBirkinQ.C(deceased)]

The award-winning official "More snow tomorrow?" thread [2012-13 season]

I love this thread and others like it. just goes to show what an intelligent and remarkable set of supporters Brighton and Hove Albion have. I can't imagine topics like this being discussed on palace and other club chat sites, bloody knuckle draggers

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Well it appears ALL models are in agreement for next week, and that is a type of easterly is about to occur (could be a North Easterly, straight easterly or South easterly...or all three during the week) What we don't know is how cold it's going to get, and how much snow.

These should be firmed up over the weekend, but at the moment I would say temps around or just above freezing frm Tues onwards till at least Sat, with snow showers starting to fall from Tues onwards as well from the east.

Whisper it, but it could stay cold right up to and including Xmas....

Agreed... I'm a little concerned about how marginal the 850hpa and 2m temps will be for much of that time, at least based upon the current output. However, that's the sort of details that change from run to run and from day to day once the setup is established.

Another thing to note is that in a cold easterly flow the specific forecasting of snowfall sometimes can only be performed at quite short notice, as troughs and other small scale features can pop up almost out of nowhere.

All to play for - I would just like to see lower temps forecast for here.

This is the 6Z GFS ensemble for Worthing area, and shows temps above freezing much of the time. I'd like to see these a couple of degrees lower to make it safe. Also worth noting is the snow percentages have dropped, more due to lower precipitation levels than simply temperature.

 

[Napper]

Good work forecasters , keep them coming. Appreciated

 

[RupertsFlan]

In a nutshell then it's going to snow - or might snow, or showers, nor maybe nothing?

I'm so sorry - I am not very bright. I cant see the little pictures on these threads, I don't know what half the terminology means and I can't be bothered to get up from my chair and find out what they mean.

Could someone tell me is it going to snow heavily, when where and for how long?

If not possible then how would differ from the weather forecasts I watch every evening on the television?

 

[vegster]

I have learned to rely on the front page of Saturday's Daily Express as a good guide. It will usually suggest something like " Arctic Freeze coming from Arctic" or " 2 months rain set to fall this week "

Normally they are 85% wrong so I tend to take an opposite view to whatever they publish.

 

[Hillian1]

In a nutshell then it's going to snow - or might snow, or showers, nor maybe nothing?

I'm so sorry - I am not very bright. I cant see the little pictures on these threads, I don't know what half the terminology means and I can't be bothered to get up from my chair and find out what they mean.

Could someone tell me is it going to snow heavily, when where and for how long?

If not possible then how would differ from the weather forecasts I watch every evening on the television?

Because when Papa say's it's going to snow, it does.

Which is a screaming bastard if like me you hate the cold and especially the snow and inside I die a little more when this thread comes to the top of the board.

 

[Flex Your Head]

Just received at a local (SE London / NW Kent) council's transport department:

"Good morning. The following has just been issued by the Operations Centre here in Exeter, and I thought you might like to know that it looks like the cold weather will continue into next week (and beyond) with an increasing risk of some snow in certain areas.

Although the weather has been very much on the cold side over the past few weeks with a good deal of night frost, ice and in places some snow, it has been interspersed with short periods of less cold but very wet weather. However, there are now good signs of a period of more prolonged cold weather starting early next week and continuing for some time. Night frost will become widespread and severe in places, with some areas failing to rise above freezing during the day. There will also be an increased risk of snow, particularly in eastern areas of England and Scotland, and later in the week East Anglia and Southeast England could be at risk from a more prolonged spell of snow, although detail on this aspect is much more uncertain.

Detail is lacking at the moment, so the areas at risk of snow could change. As and when there are any updates I will let you know."

So, the gritters will be out!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Just received at a local (SE London / NW Kent) council's transport department:

"Good morning. The following has just been issued by the Operations Centre here in Exeter, and I thought you might like to know that it looks like the cold weather will continue into next week (and beyond) with an increasing risk of some snow in certain areas.

Although the weather has been very much on the cold side over the past few weeks with a good deal of night frost, ice and in places some snow, it has been interspersed with short periods of less cold but very wet weather. However, there are now good signs of a period of more prolonged cold weather starting early next week and continuing for some time. Night frost will become widespread and severe in places, with some areas failing to rise above freezing during the day. There will also be an increased risk of snow, particularly in eastern areas of England and Scotland, and later in the week East Anglia and Southeast England could be at risk from a more prolonged spell of snow, although detail on this aspect is much more uncertain.

Detail is lacking at the moment, so the areas at risk of snow could change. As and when there are any updates I will let you know."

So, the gritters will be out!

That's as good as you can get in terms of details, at this 'range'. Thanks