[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[raymondo]

Our bigger worry over the next week is the possible storm heading our way. It'll start to warm up over the weekend, storm next week ... and now the netweather geeks are starting to talk about the possibility that cold / snow could be back on the cards for end of Jan/early Feb because the models are starting to suggest there might be a high pressure system form over Scandinavia.

It's all click bait... resist resist resist

 

[Cotton Socks]

My friends van has had frozen brakes in the morning twice this week. My condensate pipe froze today but luckily I was in to notice the water dripping inside. It's not acceptable to be paying a fortune to heat a poorly insulated house & not even be able to have a snowball fight or build a snowman.

 

[Audax]

-7 at 0830 this morning, according to the car. -6 by the time I finished school run a little before 0900. Absolutely beautiful crisp, clear morning. Just wish we could have had just one snow-bearing system pass through to take advantage of how cold it's been.

The duck pond down the hill from us is about 95% frozen over. It's amusing looking at the ducks all sitting on the ice with the odd one preferring to swim in the little bit that isn't frozen.

 

[Audax]

It's all click bait... resist resist resist

If you read the thread on Netweather, it's not click bait. A lot of caution in what they're saying. It's all in the day 10 and beyond model charts, which is a timeframe they refer to as "fantasy island" because you can't trust it. What they're looking at is trends and other longer term indicators, which are now suggesting the *possibility* of a return to colder temps early Feb. Lots of model runs to go before anything firms up, and a lot of detail yet to be revealed if a High does build to our NE - where exactly it forms, and what shape it takes, and whether it stays put or drifts south once formed. The storm next week could be nasty, or it could just be a regular winter storm. Almost certain it'll be a named storm once it forms, though, and it'll bring rain (probably a lot of it) Tuesday.

Excitement over there will build if they start seeing the details firm up and come into a more reliable time frame on the models.

 

[raymondo]

If you read the thread on Netweather, it's not click bait. A lot of caution in what they're saying. It's all in the day 10 and beyond model charts, which is a timeframe they refer to as "fantasy island" because you can't trust it. What they're looking at is trends and other longer term indicators, which are now suggesting the *possibility* of a return to colder temps early Feb. Lots of model runs to go before anything firms up, and a lot of detail yet to be revealed if a High does build to our NE - where exactly it forms, and what shape it takes, and whether it stays put or drifts south once formed. The storm next week could be nasty, or it could just be a regular winter storm. Almost certain it'll be a named storm once it forms, though, and it'll bring rain (probably a lot of it) Tuesday.

Excitement over there will build if they start seeing the details firm up and come into a more reliable time frame on the models.

Yeah sorry, it was just a bit of banter from me because of the constant snow -bomb -armaggedon warnings from the Express and GB 'news'.
I'm actually fascinated by all things weather (always have been) and will give Netweather a read. Thanks .

 

[Giraffe]

It's happening early Feb, total white out.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

@Audax You're not going to like this

 

[Audax]

Yeah sorry, it was just a bit of banter from me because of the constant snow -bomb -armaggedon warnings from the Express and GB 'news'.
I'm actually fascinated by all things weather (always have been) and will give Netweather a read. Thanks .

Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

A fresh model thread as we enter into a new phase, with the cold spell drawing to a close, and a milder, wetter and potentially quite wild spell incoming in the nearer term. You may have noticed that the model discussions now have their own area (a bit of a throwback to how things used to be laid...

community.netweather.tv

I don't read all of it (impossible to read all of it), but it's always worth a skim read of the most recent 2 pages morning and evening.

Also: right on cue, Met Office have now officially named next week's storm "Storm Isha", and I've received Yellow and Amber alerts for wind next week (Monday).

 

[Giraffe]

-7 at 0830 this morning, according to the car. -6 by the time I finished school run a little before 0900. Absolutely beautiful crisp, clear morning. Just wish we could have had just one snow-bearing system pass through to take advantage of how cold it's been.

The duck pond down the hill from us is about 95% frozen over. It's amusing looking at the ducks all sitting on the ice with the odd one preferring to swim in the little bit that isn't frozen.

Interesting that in Findon last night we only dropped to -1.9c, felt much warmer on the dog walk this morning. Still frosty and totally still. Lovely.

 

[Weststander]

Interesting that in Findon last night we only dropped to -1.9c, felt much warmer on the dog walk this morning. Still frosty and totally still. Lovely.

-4.5c here, sunshine and no wind making it pleasant.

 

[raymondo]

Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

A fresh model thread as we enter into a new phase, with the cold spell drawing to a close, and a milder, wetter and potentially quite wild spell incoming in the nearer term. You may have noticed that the model discussions now have their own area (a bit of a throwback to how things used to be laid...

community.netweather.tv

I don't read all of it (impossible to read all of it), but it's always worth a skim read of the most recent 2 pages morning and evening.

Also: right on cue, Met Office have now officially named next week's storm "Storm Isha", and I've received Yellow and Amber alerts for wind next week (Monday).

Thanks for the link - that'll be my lunchtime reading today

 

[LamieRobertson]

Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

A fresh model thread as we enter into a new phase, with the cold spell drawing to a close, and a milder, wetter and potentially quite wild spell incoming in the nearer term. You may have noticed that the model discussions now have their own area (a bit of a throwback to how things used to be laid...

community.netweather.tv

I don't read all of it (impossible to read all of it), but it's always worth a skim read of the most recent 2 pages morning and evening.

Also: right on cue, Met Office have now officially named next week's storm "Storm Isha", and I've received Yellow and Amber alerts for wind next week (Monday).

Two alerts sent to my phone..both at the same time ….one covering midday Sunday to the same on Monday ….the other midnight Monday until 9am Monday morning

 

[raymondo]

Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

A fresh model thread as we enter into a new phase, with the cold spell drawing to a close, and a milder, wetter and potentially quite wild spell incoming in the nearer term. You may have noticed that the model discussions now have their own area (a bit of a throwback to how things used to be laid...

community.netweather.tv

I don't read all of it (impossible to read all of it), but it's always worth a skim read of the most recent 2 pages morning and evening.

Also: right on cue, Met Office have now officially named next week's storm "Storm Isha", and I've received Yellow and Amber alerts for wind next week (Monday).

Wow, lots of detail and interesting thread comments. Some folk follow this in minute modelling detail. I'll have to brush up on the acronyms before I can skim read it .
Certainly seems the warm surface sea temperatures are going to continue having a big effect.
Really good, thanks .

 

[Algernon]

Our bigger worry over the next week is the possible storm heading our way. It'll start to warm up over the weekend, storm next week ... and now the netweather geeks are starting to talk about the possibility that cold / snow could be back on the cards for end of Jan/early Feb because the models are starting to suggest there might be a high pressure system form over Scandinavia.

Well they must've had the meteorological equivalent of Sherlock Holmes working on that prediction.
Mid January and there's the chance the weather might get colder with a possibility of snow.

 

[Audax]

Wow, lots of detail and interesting thread comments. Some folk follow this in minute modelling detail. I'll have to brush up on the acronyms before I can skim read it .
Certainly seems the warm surface sea temperatures are going to continue having a big effect.
Really good, thanks .

A lot of the acronyms / concepts discussed will have a little dotted line underneath them. On a laptop, hover your mouse and it'll provide either the de-acronymed full name. You can then take that away to Google and search it up.

 

[Giraffe]

Question - is there an amateur weather forecasting evening course or similar you can attend? I feel like in my retirement I'd like to get interested. Got a weather station for Christmas and it is fascinating.

EDIT - I have now googled. There are loads of online courses. Adding to my "things I will do when I retire" list.

 

[Drpepper]

Possible highs of 16C in places next week is that winter done now?

 

[bluenitsuj]

Possible highs of 16C in places next week is that winter done now?

It's only January

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

It's only January

It's a reasonable question given that some years have barely registered a freezing day on the south coast in recent times.

 

[Algernon]

It's a reasonable question given that some years have barely registered a freezing day on the south coast in recent times.

No way.
Asking on the 24th Jan whether winter is done is a ridonculous question.
Look here