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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]



Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
43,085
Lancing
All turned to nothing and not even any cold here, just back to average 8 C. Game up for Winter
 








Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
27,148
In other news, every day for some time it has been drizzly in the mornings in Findon but this has not once been forecast. What is going on there. Are we just stuck in the clouds?
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,314
Worthing
In other news, every day for some time it has been drizzly in the mornings in Findon but this has not once been forecast. What is going on there. Are we just stuck in the clouds?
The local TV forecasts have mentioned patchy drizzle in places, esp over hills and near coasts. Findon fits both categories. I'm sure you've lived round here long enough to expect light drizzle quite frequently in warm winter SW winds.
 




Berty23

Well-known member
Jun 26, 2012
3,622
Here in Warwick it looked like we were due snow but it seems to be drifting further north. As normal.
 


Taybha

Whalewhine
Oct 8, 2008
27,631
Uwantsumorwat
Well here in deepest West Wales the council have upped their game for overnight flumpage and have reminded the village residents to be careful out there on Friday morning,now there's only 9 houses in the village spread over a distance of 2.2 miles end to end we have a community salt bin and I had a quick look in there to make sure it was full,I doff my cap to the council as this winter they've really spoilt us with one 24kg bag of salt and a 15kg bag of nutrient rich horse manure, apparently if you mix the two the snow melts faster :ROFLMAO: no doubt it won't snow at all but I will be collecting my 3 ladle fulls of melting material just in case.
 


Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
3,249
Uckfield
All turned to nothing and not even any cold here, just back to average 8 C. Game up for Winter
I wouldn't be betting on anything either way at this point. GFS is flip-flopping. There's a lot still to play out in terms of how the low pressure coming through Thursday goes - exactly what track it takes *after* hitting the UK is really important and the models just can't seem to agree / make their minds up.

Yesterday there was a suggestion we could get record high temps for winter due to weather patterns sucking warm air up from Africa - they were suggesting proper mid-summer type patterns. Today's model runs have backed away from that completely.

Anyway: the models still don't seem to be decided on what's going to happen in 48 hours time, let alone this weekend / next week and the rest of the month. Weather forecasting is a mugs game at the moment, I suspect the only way to "forecast" accurately is walk out your door and take a look to see what might happen in the next few hours.
 




chickens

Have you considered masterly inactivity?
NSC Patron
Oct 12, 2022
2,654
13 degree centigrade in South Wales, and it’s been double figure temperatures through most of January and all of February. Plenty of wind and rain though.

There’s usually at least one more cold spell before spring kicks in, but if this is the new winter then it’s windproof/waterproof raincoats, not heavy winter jackets that we’ll need going forward.
 


Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
3,249
Uckfield
13 degree centigrade in South Wales, and it’s been double figure temperatures through most of January and all of February. Plenty of wind and rain though.

There’s usually at least one more cold spell before spring kicks in, but if this is the new winter then it’s windproof/waterproof raincoats, not heavy winter jackets that we’ll need going forward.
Probably for a while, but there's a risk (a growing risk with every year that passes) that the Gulf Stream ocean current could break down as a result of climate change. If that happens, the UK potentially gets plunged much, much colder. It's the Gulf Stream that moderates our winter temps by bringing warm water from the tropics north. That warm water then has a big impact on our climate, in particular during winter. If it stops, sea surface temps around the UK will get a lot colder and our local UK climate will go colder with it.
 


Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
27,148
The local TV forecasts have mentioned patchy drizzle in places, esp over hills and near coasts. Findon fits both categories. I'm sure you've lived round here long enough to expect light drizzle quite frequently in warm winter SW winds.
It does rather seem to linger over the hills you're right.
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,314
Worthing
I wouldn't be betting on anything either way at this point. GFS is flip-flopping. There's a lot still to play out in terms of how the low pressure coming through Thursday goes - exactly what track it takes *after* hitting the UK is really important and the models just can't seem to agree / make their minds up.

Yesterday there was a suggestion we could get record high temps for winter due to weather patterns sucking warm air up from Africa - they were suggesting proper mid-summer type patterns. Today's model runs have backed away from that completely.

Anyway: the models still don't seem to be decided on what's going to happen in 48 hours time, let alone this weekend / next week and the rest of the month. Weather forecasting is a mugs game at the moment, I suspect the only way to "forecast" accurately is walk out your door and take a look to see what might happen in the next few hours.
The chances of snow down here at very very low, and zero for the majority of the low's passage across the UK. We might get a cold waft as it departs, but even that is not the most likely scenario. Most GFS ensemble members have it remaining relatively mild with only 2 or 3 developing cold air here.

meh.PNG
 


WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 10, 2003
27,611
Forecast showing us getting a reasonable amount of snow Saturday ....




... in Andorra. And could use it too :down:
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,314
Worthing




Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
3,249
Uckfield
The chances of snow down here at very very low, and zero for the majority of the low's passage across the UK. We might get a cold waft as it departs, but even that is not the most likely scenario. Most GFS ensemble members have it remaining relatively mild with only 2 or 3 developing cold air here.
Yeah, I know there's nothing doing for us this week. More talking about hinted at possibilities for longer term, some of which really depend on what direction this week's low takes after it passes through the UK. Which up until now doesn't look like the models have a good handle on.

Suspect the most likely outcome is that the normal winter pattern asserts itself again and we miss out on anything definitively cold, but I wouldn't go so far as to say "winter is over" just yet.
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,314
Worthing
Yeah, I know there's nothing doing for us this week. More talking about hinted at possibilities for longer term, some of which really depend on what direction this week's low takes after it passes through the UK. Which up until now doesn't look like the models have a good handle on.

Suspect the most likely outcome is that the normal winter pattern asserts itself again and we miss out on anything definitively cold, but I wouldn't go so far as to say "winter is over" just yet.
Yes, I agree. Snow in March, at least down here on the Sussex coast always feels like a wasted opportunity though, with a rapidly strengthening sun and longer days.
 


WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 10, 2003
27,611
Looking pretty bare away from the pistes on some of these webcams.

There are a few pistes shut as well, which doesn't worry us as we'll ski anything, but my kid's partners are a little more limited in their abilities and trying to find good snow without too much steep or rough stuff is proving a little more challenging. Still, we're on holiday so it's all good :drink:
 


Driver8

On the road...
NSC Patron
Jul 31, 2005
16,181
North Wales
They are forecasting 10-15cm here tomorrow. I’d be surprised if that happens as it’s currently sunny and fairly mild but I will post some pics if it arrives.
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,314
Worthing
There are a few pistes shut as well, which doesn't worry us as we'll ski anything, but my kid's partners are a little more limited in their abilities and trying to find good snow without too much steep or rough stuff is proving a little more challenging. Still, we're on holiday so it's all good :drink:
Which resort are you staying in? I've skied Arinsal / Pal, Soldeu and Pas over the years.
 


WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 10, 2003
27,611
Which resort are you staying in? I've skied Arinsal / Pal, Soldeu and Pas over the years.

We're in El Tarter, but have skied El Tarter, Soldeu and Pas today now they are all linked. The snow isn't great here, but talking to various people on the slopes today, Austria is worse and France is struggling.

I'm going to Italy next month and although the conditions are reasonable at the moment, there's plenty of time for that to change ???
 


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