[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Cheshire Cat]

It snowed here this afternoon.

Then it rained alot.

 

[Giraffe]

The reports seem to be suggesting warming next week though, so why do you still think it will be cold and snowing?

 

[The Wizard]

The reports seem to be suggesting warming next week though, so why do you still think it will be cold and snowing?

Don't listen to the reports, they are still going on yesterdays theme with had been changing daily, I'm 75% sure now we could see some very cold weather, mainly due to the 00z & the 12z agreeing with each other as oppose to the consistent changing in the last few days and perhaps snowfall which is obviously not guaranteed but there has been significant changes which point to the cold weather coming in, the models are starting to agree on this, I expect over night the forecast will change, the next 24 hrs will be vital in my opinion.

Do you want a technical explanation or?

 

[CliveWalkerWingWizard]

Think i've had enough now but i still get excited by it

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Don't listen to the reports, they are still going on yesterdays theme with had been changing daily, I'm 75% sure now we could see some very cold weather, mainly due to the 00z & the 12z agreeing with each other as oppose to the consistent changing in the last few days and perhaps snowfall which is obviously not guaranteed but there has been significant changes which point to the cold weather coming in, the models are starting to agree on this, I expect over night the forecast will change, the next 24 hrs will be vital in my opinion.

Do you want a technical explanation or?

This morning it's still 'on'. We have decent cross model support for a cold spell of up to a week from Sunday / Monday. Snow is possible here. Hard to tell details.

 

[Giraffe]

This morning it's still 'on'. We have decent cross model support for a cold spell of up to a week from Sunday / Monday. Snow is possible here. Hard to tell details.

So why are all media reporting that the warm front has won the day and temperatures will rise into next week. Are they just idiots?

 

[The Wizard]

So why are all media reporting that the warm front has won the day and temperatures will rise into next week. Are they just idiots?

Well, it looked like the warm Atlantic air had won the battle but the cold seems to have taken control, but to answer your question yes, yes they are.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Well, it looked like the warm Atlantic air had won the battle but the cold seems to have taken control, but to answer your question yes, yes they are.

The Atlantic may have won the battle, but certainly not the war. The GFS ensembles show good agreement for a cool down from the East, as the mild air gets pushed back from whence it came, due to the seemingly ever present northern blocking. The colder air will arrive day by day, with the really cold weather by mid week onwards. At the moment it looks cold, dry and frosty, with snow in the usual East Coast locations, but that's detail, which is hard to forecast for snow.

I do have to add that the ECM and UKMO are broadly in line, but go for variations on the final outcome, so things can and will change.

 

[The Wizard]

 

[SirDouglasLoft]

what do the colours represent?

 

[The Wizard]

what do the colours represent?

Blue (Darker blue = colder) & Purple is cold, Yellow,orange,red is Warm.

 

[jakarta]

Many thanks for the pretty maps BUT seeing as I am venturing from Jakarta Towers to lovely Grantham in Lincolnshire on the 10th returning on the 11th what does this mean for my travel prospects - shovel, blanket & Kendal Mint Cake in the boot?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I was about to post the 144 hour equivalants...

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF?04-17 - UKMO

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-144.png?12 - GFS


Such close agreement is a great sign... all we need is ECM to come into line and I'll get excited.

 

[The Wizard]

Many thanks for the pretty maps BUT seeing as I am venturing from Jakarta Towers to lovely Grantham in Lincolnshire on the 10th returning on the 11th what does this mean for my travel prospects - shovel, blanket & Kendal Mint Cake in the boot?

I'd say wait until Sunday/Monday and look at the forecast, its still unclear at the moment as to how much snow there will be/how cold it may or may not be, right now, the east and south east are predicted to take a bit of a battering but a lot can still change. Prepare the shovel and blanket, but don't put it in the bag yet.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Wizard - here's the precipitation chart for the GFS one you posted:

The hatched stuff is snow... the darker the colour the heavier (for those that can't read keys).

Yet another Wed / Thursday snow event...

 

[jakarta]

I'd say wait until Sunday/Monday and look at the forecast, its still unclear at the moment as to how much snow there will be/how cold it may or may not be, right now, the east and south east are predicted to take a bit of a battering but a lot can still change. Prepare the shovel and blanket, but don't put it in the bag yet.

Thanks and Oh Bugger!

 

[The Wizard]

Wizard - here's the precipitation chart for the GFS one you posted:

The hatched stuff is snow... the darker the colour the heavier (for those that can't read keys).

Very interesting, considering the precipitation charts are normally very underwhelming during cold spells, they normally get better as you get closer to the date, if the same happened in this case..

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Very interesting, considering the precipitation charts are normally very underwhelming during cold spells, they normally get better as you get closer to the date, if the same happened in this case..

I wouldn't go that far... I would say that the GFS precipitation charts are unrealiable rather than baised in any direction. The NWP ones which the Met Office use are pretty good though (those are the admittedly shorter range ones, which show snow in pink).

 

[Juan Albion]

I must say that it is lovely and HOT here. But then I'm in the Florida Keys and it is GORGEOUS.

 

[Muhammad - I’m hard - Bruce Lee]

i am genuinely interested and love the maps ( even though i aint got a scooby what they mean)

so........


what does it all mean then