[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Uncle Spielberg]

Which signs are those?

SW's and 60 degrees F by the end of the week and as far as they can forecast

 

[Badger]

Is there another forum anywhere in the world (bar weather forums obviously) with so many weather experts. Its a fun read.

Im still rooting for the flumping to come over the Christmas Period..............the reason why is that i work at Gatwick and they are gearing up for a cold spell, all staff who operate the snow ploughs have been put on 24 hour notice to respond starting from next week.

I'm landing at Gatwick on Christmas Eve. It had better be fully operational!

 

[chucky1973]

I'm landing at Gatwick on Christmas Eve. It had better be fully operational!

Ill pass on your concerns and that they prioritise your flight

 

[Badger]

Ill pass on your concerns and that they prioritise your flight

Much appreciated

If you could also prioritise me at passport control and baggage reclaim, that would be tremendous.

 

[larus]

Much appreciated

If you could also prioritise me at passport control and baggage reclaim, that would be tremendous.

And entry/re-entry to the mile-high club too?

 

[Badger]

Montreal has a had a good FLUMPING, leading to some comedy slow motion pile ups.

 

[Ernest]

What is the long range forecast for Christmas ?

 

[Plake]

Montreal has a had a good FLUMPING, leading to some comedy slow motion pile ups.

Must have had a melt and refreeze there. Or freezing rain for a bit. Imagine what Hanover would be like in the same conditions on worn out summer tyres. Anyway, all very enjoyable, assuming nobody got hurt.

 

[Giraffe]

Montreal has a had a good FLUMPING, leading to some comedy slow motion pile ups.

That's bloody hilarious. But at what point did the guy stop filming and start stopping cars come down that hill!

 

[supaseagull]

SW's and 60 degrees F by the end of the week and as far as they can forecast

I've not seen anything at all to suggest that. Gets a little warmer this next week but nothing above average for the time of the year and then back to the colder conditions from around 17th


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[Uncle Spielberg]

What is the long range forecast for Christmas ?

Very Mild, windy, wet, SW winds, 14C 57F

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

I've not seen anything at all to suggest that. Gets a little warmer this next week but nothing above average for the time of the year and then back to the colder conditions from around 17th


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Temperatures this week are forecast about 5 or 6 degrees above average for December. Even at the weekend it's forecast to cool down a bit but still be, in the daytime, 3 degrees above average.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

What is the long range forecast for Christmas ?

Only 1 model goes as far as Xmas day at the moment, and today's run has a low pressure to our West and strong SW winds. This is a class Spielberg Low, with "mild SW winds and temps near 60F, which will be hard to shift",

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The next nearest (GFS) goes out as far as Dec 22nd, and for snow lovers is much more interesting. Over the 2nd half of the run it tries to establish a block to our North or NW, and at the end is full of wintry potential.

 

[Yoda]

The next nearest (GFS) goes out as far as Dec 22nd, and for snow lovers is much more interesting. Over the 2nd half of the run it tries to establish a block to our North or NW, and at the end is full of wintry potential.

View attachment 79934

But I thought the South Westerlies were here to stay forever once they move in this week?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

But I thought the South Westerlies were here to stay forever once they move in this week?

[MENTION=1933]Yoda[/MENTION], I know. I think we all did.

On the general subject, that Operational GFS (the thick black line below) is in the middle of a very diverse 'pack' in the ensemble, which reflects the uncertainty in the models in the run up to Xmas. There are colder ones in there, which represent earlier victories in establishing a block, and others that sink the block into Europe and allow a more mobile flow. In between there will be some outcomes where we sit under a High Pressure for the period.

One thing to note is the lack of any appreciable rain in the 14 day forecast window, which suggests that at least down here, we'll have high pressure never too far from us.

 

[jevs]

But Uncle Spielberg said it's going to be wet.

You know U.S and the Daily Express are the only forecasts worth listening to!!!

 

[smeg]

To be fair [MENTION=3887]Uncle Spielberg[/MENTION] is rarely far from the truth in these matters, I've been following this thread for years because I love snow and his forecasting is usually spot on.

 

[Plake]

Yeah, it's like forecasting that Albion aren't going to get promoted in any given year on the basis of no actual analysis. Most likely you'll be right but nobody's going to thank you for it round here, and you'll be wrong every so often.

 

[Bozza]

To be fair [MENTION=3887]Uncle Spielberg[/MENTION] is rarely far from the truth in these matters, I've been following this thread for years because I love snow and his forecasting is usually spot on.

With respect to the good Uncle, it doesn't strike me that he actually forecasts anything, other than saying "this is what it's usually like, so it will be again". And that approach is likely to have a high success rate of course.

There's absolutely no fun in that though, is there? This thread would be very short if that's all everyone said each and every Winter.

On the other hand our esteemed colleague [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] and others take time to look at weather models and interpret them for us. I couldn't interpret a weather model any more than I can speak Cantonese, so it's interesting and fun.