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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]



Muhammad - I’m hard - Bruce Lee

You can't change fighters
NSC Patron
Jul 25, 2005
10,911
on a pig farm




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
The most recent GFS Ensemble goes slightly colder in the latter stages. A step in the right direction

graphe_ens3_tid3.gif
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
43,094
Lancing
Only 9 c max today bloody perishing only 2 c above normal
 








Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
43,094
Lancing








Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
43,094
Lancing
There is no chance of snow just average temps next week 6 to 7 c daytime and a bit of frost at night
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
43,094
Lancing
December max daytime average 12.7 c, 5.2 c above average
 






Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
Any updates Papa on the possibility of a flumping?

Still a chance - but loads of uncertainty still.

The chart below shows a cluster of runs which go for colder air to arrive, but it's still a split forecast between average and cold.

graphe_ens3_yzp0.gif


The air temps are shown below:

graphe_ens4_nrk2.gif
 


Cheshire Cat

The most curious thing..
Forecast on Radio 4 this morning did mention possible snow next week, but not where.
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
The very recent 18z run looks a slight improvement in terms of 850hpa temps and snow percentage down here

graphe_ens3_rsl0.gif
 




ryans father

New member
Jul 19, 2005
290
East Sheen SW14
The very recent 18z run looks a slight improvement in terms of 850hpa temps and snow percentage down here

View attachment 71191

Background synoptics have been highlighting a possible change for a while. The models are now picking up on these signals and cold is being increasingly modelled. Overnight runs are the coldest of the winter and point to a more significant cold spell. As Papa says however things are still fluid so any snow is far from guaranteed.
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
Background synoptics have been highlighting a possible change for a while. The models are now picking up on these signals and cold is being increasingly modelled. Overnight runs are the coldest of the winter and point to a more significant cold spell. As Papa says however things are still fluid so any snow is far from guaranteed.

This morning's GFS and UKMO both look very encouraging. ECMWF operational is less exciting, but I'll be interested to see the ECM Ensemble to see where it sits.
 










Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
My BBC weather app is showing max temps of 4 and mins of -1 for Mon - Fri next week in SE London. It certainly looks like it's going to get a lot colder than of late.

Finally it looks like the models and forecasting agencies are agreed that we will at least get a change to colder weather next week. The tricky part will be the depth of the cold, where any snow will fall and how long the cold spell will last.
 


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