[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[vegster]

It is the UK hotspot. I am sure somewhere will hit 16C 61F which is as warm as some July days. This trend is likely to continue for the rest of the winter. It could challenge to be even warmer than 2013

We have had some pretty cold nights though on occasions. Last saturday was particularly frosty over Worthing way, I had to scrape ice off my windscreen at 5.15 in the evening after work.

 

[nick65]

Martin Gibbs on the weatheroutlook site is my favourite. He gives a twice daily report that is easy to understand and doesn't get hysterical at the first sign of cold weather!

 

[chucky1973]

No update for 12 hours......the GFS 6Z and 12Z and 06Z must have been disappointing last night for Papa and Casbom not to have updated :-(

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

We have had some pretty cold nights though on occasions. Last saturday was particularly frosty over Worthing way, I had to scrape ice off my windscreen at 5.15 in the evening after work.

A couple of -1C so far yes, I remember nights when we got -10C to -15C on quite a few occasions. The BCC now report as they did today that 9C by day and 6C by night is " cold ". As far as the projections look it is 10C plus by day all the way through to January and as I have said and been proved right the trend is now set of constant sw/w winds for 3 months the same as last winter. There is no chance of snow this winter

 

[Scoffers]

I use this site for weather predictions - it's pretty crap - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

 

[Plake]

A couple of -1C so far yes, I remember nights when we got -10C to -15C on quite a few occasions. The BCC now report as they did today that 9C by day and 6C by night is " cold ". As far as the projections look it is 10C plus by day all the way through to January and as I have said and been proved right the trend is now set of constant sw/w winds for 3 months the same as last winter. There is no chance of snow this winter

Admirably incessant trolling US.

We get it.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

No update for 12 hours......the GFS 6Z and 12Z and 06Z must have been disappointing last night for Papa and Casbom not to have updated :-(

The model output is a mixture of uncertainty and disappointment. The spread in possible outcomes has got bigger after Christmas Eve, not less.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Admirably incessant trolling US.

We get it.

It is merely stating the obvious really

 

[vegster]

A couple of -1C so far yes, I remember nights when we got -10C to -15C on quite a few occasions. The BCC now report as they did today that 9C by day and 6C by night is " cold ". As far as the projections look it is 10C plus by day all the way through to January and as I have said and been proved right the trend is now set of constant sw/w winds for 3 months the same as last winter. There is no chance of snow this winter

I think there will be some snow sooner or later but I can't see a real dump or prolonged spell of it ( 3-7 days ) happening soon. Our best chance may be in early Spring when anything can, and often does, happen.

 

[chucky1973]

The model output is a mixture of uncertainty and disappointment. The spread in possible outcomes has got bigger after Christmas Eve, not less.

so does that mean more or less chance of some "flumpage"

 

[casbom]

so does that mean more or less chance of some "flumpage"

It's too close to call at the moment, the models are flip flopping all over the place due to the pattern change so we could be sweltering come Boxing day of temps in the mid teens, or we'll be shivering with the temps close the freezing!

We "should" know what's going to happen on Monday

 

[Papa Lazarou]

It's too close to call at the moment, the models are flip flopping all over the place due to the pattern change so we could be sweltering come Boxing day of temps in the mid teens, or we'll be shivering with the temps close the freezing!

We "should" know what's going to happen on Monday

the very latest Met Office outlook looks a lot more interesting - admittedly mainly N based, but a step in the right direction:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Dec 2014 to Friday 2 Jan 2015:

A band of cloud and rain is likely to be affecting many central parts of the UK at first on Christmas Eve, clearing the southeast later. Colder conditions then spreading to many areas, continuing into Christmas day, with some wintry showers across N areas. Probably becoming increasingly unsettled into the weekend, with the risk of persistent heavy rain, gales and also a risk of significant snow, this more likely across some northern parts. Conditions after Christmas likely to remain predominantly cold across the N, but with the chance of milder interludes across the far south. Otherwise the following week looks perhaps rather cold on the whole, with snow showers likely across many northern areas but milder, wetter interludes possible at times. Generally windy for many throughout.

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Jan 2015 to Saturday 17 Jan 2015:

The most likely scenario for the coming New Year is for a continuation of changeable, and at times windy weather coming from the Atlantic with the wettest weather probably across western parts of the UK, and eastern parts most likely to see the best of any dry weather. In between the wetter periods there should be drier, brighter, and colder spells. Temperatures are most likely to be around or slightly below average for the time of year with overnight frosts and some snow expected, particularly over the high ground.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The latest model output suggests the following:

The low pressure that will pass over the UK over the weekend may draw in colder air as it exits SE, and some of the projected paths would bring some wintry weather for Sussex. Still very borderline.

Following this the models are showing high pressure establishing near to the UK. Some models show this far enough to the North to allow cold air to be pulled from the East. Either way it will be colder, with hard night frost possible, and cold days. If the high is far enough North there's a chance of some snow showers off the sea, but nothing significant yet.

As with these situations, things can change.

See below for this morning's GFS ensemble. It shows a mainly dry but cold period next week, with some chance of snow down here.

 

[Napper]

The latest model output suggests the following:

The low pressure that will pass over the UK over the weekend may draw in colder air as it exits SE, and some of the projected paths would bring some wintry weather for Sussex. Still very borderline.

Following this the models are showing high pressure establishing near to the UK. Some models show this far enough to the North to allow cold air to be pulled from the East. Either way it will be colder, with hard night frost possible, and cold days. If the high is far enough North there's a chance of some snow showers off the sea, but nothing significant yet.

As with these situations, things can change.

See below for this morning's GFS ensemble. It shows a mainly dry but cold period next week, with some chance of snow down here.

View attachment 61170

Happy with that

Cold is good

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Happy with that

Cold is good

If we can't have snow, I'll settle for frosty weather.

 

[Zeff]

Any update from the experts on here, as the Met Office seem fairly unsure of where any potential snow may fall

 

[The Wizard]

Any update from the experts on here, as the Met Office seem fairly unsure of where any potential snow may fall

Highly unlikely down here, unless at elevation perhaps. MetO seem to think M4 ish - north at present.

 

[vegster]

Any update from the experts on here, as the Met Office seem fairly unsure of where any potential snow may fall

Mostly northern tbh, not much making it to us.

 

[Barrel of Fun]

They were gritting the roads in Seaford this morning as I made my way to Beachy Head.

 

[Plake]

It's not that bad mate, they'll find someone to replace Hyppia.