[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[vegster]

Around 9 - 14 C for the next 10 days at least

Excellent, having to drive to Darkest Shrewsbury for Christmas, wouldn't want to have to carry snow chains.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The latest Sussex GFS ensemble shows the point at which the post Xmas weather diverges is Christmas Day. A group of ensemble members take the 850hpa temps downward, representing a mid Atlantic ridge develops, with a northerly flow, whilst others fail to develop the ridge and we return to milder weather.



We'll know soon enough which way the models (not just GFS, but also the big hitters at ECMWF and UKMO) are going to go, but as it goes to 2 weeks out, the GFS gets there first.

 

[chucky1973]

The latest Sussex GFS ensemble shows the point at which the post Xmas weather diverges is Christmas Day. A group of ensemble members take the 850hpa temps downward, representing a mid Atlantic ridge develops, with a northerly flow, whilst others fail to develop the ridge and we return to milder weather.

View attachment 61015

We'll know soon enough which way the models (not just GFS, but also the big hitters at ECMWF and UKMO) are going to go, but as it goes to 2 weeks out, the GFS gets there first.

Its all rather exciting if you ask me. Far more exicting that supporting this club these days. I cant wait for your next update Papa. Dont be long now. My F5 button with break.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Its all rather exciting if you ask me. Far more exicting that supporting this club these days. I cant wait for your next update Papa. Dont be long now. My F5 button with break.

I won't be providing hourly updates, as even the most frequent model (GFS) only comes out every 6 hours.

 

[cirC]

Having looked at some of the sites the indication is we could from Boxinf DAy on be getting a lot colder and the New Year period is hinting at some substantial snow.Long way off yet but there is agreement from different sites that this will happen.The met office on the other hand.........................

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Having looked at some of the sites the indication is we could from Boxinf DAy on be getting a lot colder and the New Year period is hinting at some substantial snow.Long way off yet but there is agreement from different sites that this will happen.The met office on the other hand.........................

Only hints for now, as there is by no means any cross model agreement, even prior to and over Xmas, let along post.

 

[casbom]

Yes don't expect the Met office to announce anything this week, if the signal for colder weather strengthens over the weekend then we'll start getting updates from them.

As it is the (just) favourite is still for a brief northerly/north westerly from Boxing day/27th before Atlantic starts coming back in.

However the colder offering is gaining...

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Yes don't expect the Met office to announce anything this week, if the signal for colder weather strengthens over the weekend then we'll start getting updates from them.

As it is the (just) favourite is still for a brief northerly/north westerly from Boxing day/27th before Atlantic starts coming back in.

However the colder offering is gaining...

The GFS 6Z is mixed to say the least. Even as early as 120 hours out (Dec 23rd) there's a lot of variations in the possible outcomes, so it's hardly a surprise that the Xmas period and beyond is some uncertain.

 

[casbom]

The GFS 6Z is mixed to say the least. Even as early as 120 hours out (Dec 23rd) there's a lot of variations in the possible outcomes, so it's hardly a surprise that the Xmas period and beyond is some uncertain.

Yeah but it is the 06z we're talking about!

The 12z suite will be interesting tonight especially the ECM, if we can get this one on board for the post xmas cold spell then I'll start to get a bit excited

 

[chucky1973]

Yeah but it is the 06z we're talking about!

The 12z suite will be interesting tonight especially the ECM, if we can get this one on board for the post xmas cold spell then I'll start to get a bit excited

The GFS 6Z is mixed to say the least. Even as early as 120 hours out (Dec 23rd) there's a lot of variations in the possible outcomes, so it's hardly a surprise that the Xmas period and beyond is some uncertain.

What sites do you guys look at?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

6am GFS ensemble for Sussex - about that same?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

What sites do you guys look at?

I use http://www.meteociel.fr/

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Yeah but it is the 06z we're talking about!

The 12z suite will be interesting tonight especially the ECM, if we can get this one on board for the post xmas cold spell then I'll start to get a bit excited

Yes, without support from ECM (and later UKMO when it comes into range) we're going nowhere.

 

[chucky1973]

Yeah but it is the 06z we're talking about!

The 12z suite will be interesting tonight especially the ECM, if we can get this one on board for the post xmas cold spell then I'll start to get a bit excited

The GFS 6Z is mixed to say the least. Even as early as 120 hours out (Dec 23rd) there's a lot of variations in the possible outcomes, so it's hardly a surprise that the Xmas period and beyond is some uncertain.

I use http://www.meteociel.fr/

What makes that site better than say and English equivalent?

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

15C 59F in Hereford

 

[Papa Lazarou]

What makes that site better than say and English equivalent?

www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten is the German version

The Weather Outlook are now doing good charts as well

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

 

[chucky1973]

Yeah but it is the 06z we're talking about!

The 12z suite will be interesting tonight especially the ECM, if we can get this one on board for the post xmas cold spell then I'll start to get a bit excited

The GFS 6Z is mixed to say the least. Even as early as 120 hours out (Dec 23rd) there's a lot of variations in the possible outcomes, so it's hardly a surprise that the Xmas period and beyond is some uncertain.

There isn't a good English version. www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten is the German version

thanks, I will keep an eye on both......I want to be the first person to say it is "Flumping"

 

[Papa Lazarou]

15C 59F in Hereford

Thank you for the weather report - are you there for the day?

 

[casbom]

thanks, I will keep an eye on both......I want to be the first person to say it is "Flumping"

Hi Mate,

Papa tends to reside on TWO (TheWeatherOutlook - http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=topics&f=2) have a read of the Model output discussion.

I go there but also netweather.tv (https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/8...-the-run-in-to-christmas/page-19#entry3091069)

On both you'll get to know who to trust in what they are saying etc, generally in the discussions you will quickly see what kind of weather is being discussed! If you see mentions of the "Murr sausage" then start to get very excited!

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Thank you for the weather report - are you there for the day?

It is the UK hotspot. I am sure somewhere will hit 16C 61F which is as warm as some July days. This trend is likely to continue for the rest of the winter. It could challenge to be even warmer than 2013