[Cricket] The Ashes- England v Australia- 3rd Test, Headingley, July 06-10, 2023

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Your forecast for the 3rd Test


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Eeyore

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Apr 5, 2014
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Of course, feel free to continue the wailing and gnashing of teeth on the 2nd Test thread, but they are coming thick and fast.

July 6th is a significant day in Ashes history. Especially for me. In 1981, whilst off school with sinusitis, I settled in the front room that warm sunny day. I had never really paid much attention up to that point but having a cricket mad teacher at St Luke’s, and playing ‘continuous cricket’ (a rounders type game but based on cricket) even in deep winter, I had little choice. One of my best friends was also a cricket devotee. I was gently, or forcibly, being pushed towards the alter of the great game.

That afternoon England were batting. I wasn’t really sure of the match situation, but Ian Botham came to the crease. Shortly after he left, having attempted to sweep Ray Bright first ball and being bowled behind his legs. The television fell silent and as Botham walked up the pavilion steps the members were hushed. He later said that the walk was like taking two steps forward and one step back. His captaincy was over. My love of cricket had started.

In fairness to Botham, his spell in charge had spanned two series against the West Indies. But it was probably more the Ashes he was judged on. His form had waned. This, of course, was the start of the fairy tale. Mike Brearley came back and with some Botham and Willis heroics, some help from a few others, and a good old fashioned dose of luck and fortune, the rest went into history.

The third Test of this series is also at Leeds. If you don’t know the result of the 1981 match you are probably here by accident. But in a similar way England need some action. In the first Test, as in 1981, England’s fielding let them down. And, as in 1981, England could well have won. In fact, it would not be a freak of sport for them to be 2-0 up here. But, as many of us have suggested on the previous thread, they often have only themselves to blame.

Enough of the comparisons though. The first debate is whether they stick with the same team. And much would depend on the surface. Headingley is not the green top of yesteryear. But should Wood return ? Will Anderson take a break ? Is Pope fit to play and should he anyway ? NSC will take on the debate and the summer Ashes threads will run like those games of continuous cricket.

I forecast a tight Australia win in the first Test, and another win in the second, marking out England’s approach as a problem. I hoped to be wrong. Whilst I think the toss (and possibly the weather) will play a role in Leeds, I’m hoping to be right on this occasion. I think England are scorned and angry at their own failings.

Forecast: England victory.
 
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Hoping England use their irritation as inspiration and win this one. However, there is a naivety (possibly ego driven) in this England side and their lack of ability so far to read the conditions and adapt their approach has cost them both tests. I fear similar here. They clearly have the ability and I think they will win one of the tests when luck goes all their way. Will it be this one? I hope so but I've gone for Austrailia victory, albeit another close one.
 




A1X

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Sep 1, 2017
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Deepest, darkest Sussex
I expect England to throw away a good position like they have done the last two tests TBH, I just don't think they have the killer instinct necessary to beat this Australian team anymore. Could be 2-0 up, are 2-0 down.
 






Neville's Breakfast

Well-known member
May 1, 2016
13,450
Oxton, Birkenhead
Of course, feel free to continue the wailing and gnashing of teeth on the 2nd Test thread, but they are coming thick and fast.

July 6th is a significant day in Ashes history. Especially for me. In 1981, whilst off school with sinusitis, I settled in the front room that warm sunny day. I had never really paid much attention up to that point but having a cricket mad teacher at St Luke’s, and playing ‘continuous cricket’ (a rounders type game but based on cricket) even in deep winter, I had little choice. One of my best friends was also a cricket devotee. I was gently, or forcibly, being pushed towards to alter of the great game.

That afternoon England were batting. I wasn’t really sure of the match situation, but Ian Botham came to the crease. Shortly after he left, having attempted to sweep Ray Bright first ball and being bowled behind his legs. The television fell silent, as Botham walked up the pavilion steps the members were hushed. He later said that the walk was like taking two steps forward and one step back. His captaincy was over.

In fairness to Botham, his spell in charge had spanned two series against the West Indies. But it was probably more the Ashes he was judged on. His form had waned. This, of course, was the start of the fairytale. Mike Brearley came back and, with some Botham and Willis heroics, some help from a few others, and a good old fashioned dose of luck and fortune, the rest went into history.

The third Test of this series is also at Leeds. If you don’t know the result of the 1981 match you are probably here by accident. But in a similar way, England need some action. In the first Test, as in 1981, England’s fielding let them down. And, as in 1981, England could well have won. In fact, it would not be a freak of sport for them to be 2-0 up here. But, as many of us have suggested on the previous thread, they often have only themselves to blame.

Enough of the comparisons though. The first debate is whether they stick with the same team. And much would depend on the surface. Headingley is not the green top of yesteryear but should Wood return ? Will Anderson take a break ? Is Pope fit to play and should he anyway ? NSC will take on the debate and the summer Ashes threads will run like those games of continuous cricket.

I forecast a tight Australia win in the first Test, and another win in the second, marking out England’s approach as a problem. I hoped to be wrong. Whilst I think the toss (and possibly the weather) will play a role in Leeds I’m hoping to be right on this occasion. I think England are scorned and angry at their own failings.

Forecast: England victory.
Nice post. The biggest comparison of course is the early prototype Bazball played by Botham in that series.
 


big nuts

Well-known member
Jan 15, 2011
4,877
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I’ve predicted two Aussie wins so far, but I have a feeling we will turn this one around and get back to 2-1.

Wood being fit and on top form, would be a massive boost.
 








PeterT

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Apr 21, 2017
2,308
Hove
I will be driving up on Thursday listening, and there on Friday - Sunday. I was there in 2019 to see Stokes score that amazing 100 too, but equally saw us skittled in the first innings and on a previous visit there too. Didn’t get there in ‘81 but saw Botham smash it around in ‘85, so have had a mixed few trips up there.

My fear is that this has galvanised the convicts as much as it has us, and therefore given that they are probably a better team than us even without Lyon, I fear they will edge it again and we go 3 down, before roaring back in the ‘dead’ games at the end. Looking forward to it anyway.
 






A1X

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Sep 1, 2017
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Deepest, darkest Sussex
Not called up Foakes (wrongly), so looks like Dan Lawrence at 3
 




Sid and the Sharknados

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Jeremiah

John 14 : 6
Mar 15, 2020
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Hopefully the crowd will unsettle the Aussies - if the Lords Long Room upset them then a revved up Headingley might cause an implosion.

I have a feeling for an England win and another apology from the MCC.
 


Sid and the Sharknados

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In fairness to Botham, his spell in charge had spanned two series against the West Indies. But it was probably more the Ashes he was judged on. His form had waned. This, of course, was the start of the fairy tale. Mike Brearley came back and with some Botham and Willis heroics, some help from a few others, and a good old fashioned dose of luck and fortune, the rest went into history.
With hindsight, given we didn't avoid defeat in a match against the West Indies after those series until we drew a single match in 1988, those series defeats against the West Indies in 1980/81 look quite positive.
Albeit that probably had much more to do with Boycott and Gooch at the top of the order than any captaincy genius on Botham's part.
 


Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
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Jul 16, 2003
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Think we will win this one, hope so anyway other wise it's going to be a dull dull couple of weeks if they are dead rubbers
 


Eeyore

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Apr 5, 2014
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With hindsight, given we didn't avoid defeat in a match against the West Indies after those series until we drew a single match in 1988, those series defeats against the West Indies in 1980/81 look quite positive.
Albeit that probably had much more to do with Boycott and Gooch at the top of the order than any captaincy genius on Botham's part.
Ironically, it was Boycott and Gooch whose batting got us the losing draws in the last two Tests on that tour (and Boycott in the Centenary Test against the Aussies)

The biggest problem for Botham was his form during that time- and the opposition. Although the two poor performances against the Aussies must have made up Bedser's mind. I'm not sure if he resigned or was pushed.

Botham is a bit of a myth to me really. He excelled for four years. After 1982 he did little of note, barely even warranting a place in the side. I think I once did a calculation on the stats of his years post 1982. 44 Tests, average around 25, bowling average in the late 30s. The personality was bigger than the performance. When his name comes up among the greatest all-rounders I do wonder sometimes. Chris Woakes has better stats than Botham in the second half of his career. There was always a New Zealand or Indian Test series coming up to help forget though..

(Subjective disclaimer- I find Ian Botham an extremely irritating character and doubtless he would feel the same about me. Although kudos for his outstanding charity work. And I'm not sure why a bulky Australian envoy should be making threatening remarks to a man of nearly 80 however obnoxious he may consider him to be)
 
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Sid and the Sharknados

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Ironically, it was Boycott and Gooch whose batting got us the losing draws in the last two Tests on that tour (and Boycott in the Centenary Test against the Aussies)

The biggest problem for Botham was his form during that time- and the opposition. Although the two poor performances against the Aussies must have made up Bedser's mind. I'm not sure if he resigned or was pushed.

Botham is a bit of a myth to me really. He excelled for four years. After 1982 he did little of note, barely even warranting a place in the side. I think I once did a calculation on the stats of his years post 1982. 44 Tests, average around 25, bowling average in the late 30s. The personality was bigger than the performance. When his name comes up among the greatest all-rounders I do wonder sometimes. Chris Woakes has better stats than Botham in the second half of his career. There was always a New Zealand or Indian Test series coming up to help forget though..

(Subjective disclaimer- I find Ian Botham an extremely irritating character and doubtless he would feel the same about me. Although kudos for his outstanding charity work. And I'm not sure why a bulky Australian envoy should be making threatening remarks to a man of nearly 80 however obnoxious he may consider him to be)
On the other hand, Botham's first few years would put him in the top 5 or so all rounders of all time. And his performances against Australia after they had their Packer players back suggests the quality of opposition wasn't the main issue. I think his back went in about 1982, 83 ish.
My understanding is he resigned, but Bedser said he would have been sacked anyway. I can't remember if that's based on his own autobiography or if I've also read it somewhere else.
I would love to know how he'd have gone in those West Indies series if Brearley had been captain. But that's life at the end of the day.
I don't have any regard for Botham's political views (he has them, I don't often agree but I don't really care). My only very passing contact with him came a few years ago when I was at a test at Headingly. If you've not been, the main concourse runs under the big modern pavilion, and the pundits have to walk across it to get from the field to the media entrance. I happened to walk through when Botham and Atherton came through from the field after doing a bit to camera during the Tea break. Athers (who I have a vast amount of respect for) walked straight through the crowd like he had blinkers on. While Botham seemed happy to stop and chat or sign things for a couple of people on the way.
I don't doubt you can find many people who have alternative experiences of him being a complete knob.
 


Eeyore

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Apr 5, 2014
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Nice post. The biggest comparison of course is the early prototype Bazball played by Botham in that series.
His innings at Old Trafford, for sure. Even more of a blast than Leeds. His last 113 coming off 90 odd balls- in contrast to his partner Tavare

If you've got 25 minutes it's worth a watch.

 


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