[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[Zeberdi]

Pretty grim reading for sleepy Joe tonight on the investigation into him mishandling classified documents.

One question for the more enlightened than me on the US Presidential election. I'm a keen gambler and I've just looked at the prices for next President and both Trump and Biden are over evens to be next President. Surely it has to be one of them? Biden is a shoe in to be Democrat candidate so long as he doesn't pop his clogs in the next 9 months and it seems almost certain Trump will be the Republican candidate. Yet I can get 5/4 on Trump and 11/5 on Biden? So I can bet on them both and whichever wins guarantee a reasonable profit. Am I missing something? Is there a really genuine other contender

I’m not a gambler so can’t answer the odds question. However, they are pretty much neck and neck in the polls so at this stage equally likely to be the next president.

Yes, to your other point, short of either one being in prison or dead: There are no other candidates on the ballots close to either of them in the race to be their party’s nominee. It is already too late for any completely new candidates to easily enter the race as the deadline to enter the Primaries has past and candidates already have delegates committed to vote for them at the Conventions. Also for the Democrats, Biden is the only candidate on the ballot in some states which complicates it further. The Democrats would probably have to go to court therefore to get the Primary election filing dates changed to allow them to field a new candidate. Even if a new candidate was allowed a late filing to allow them to appear on the Primaries ballots, by mid-March, after over a third of the Primaries have nominated delegates, it will be mathematically impossible for a new candidate to win the number of delegates required to win the nomination just on the ballots so it could fall to the Conventions to throw out the ballot votes and vote from scratch to nominate the Presidential candidates:

Therefore it is not impossible for a new candidate to get on the General Election ballot as their Party’s Presidential nominee after the Primaries have already started but it becomes increasingly difficult the closer to the General Election it gets:

What if Biden or Trump suddenly leaves the 2024 race?

How Joe Biden or Donald Trump could be replaced if they drop out of the 2024 presidential race.

abcnews.go.com

 

[nwgull]

Pretty grim reading for sleepy Joe tonight on the investigation into him mishandling classified documents.

One question for the more enlightened than me on the US Presidential election. I'm a keen gambler and I've just looked at the prices for next President and both Trump and Biden are over evens to be next President. Surely it has to be one of them? Biden is a shoe in to be Democrat candidate so long as he doesn't pop his clogs in the next 9 months and it seems almost certain Trump will be the Republican candidate. Yet I can get 5/4 on Trump and 11/5 on Biden? So I can bet on them both and whichever wins guarantee a reasonable profit. Am I missing something? Is there a really genuine other contender

You’ve answered your own question more or less. With 11/10 Trump and 2/1 Biden, you’re basically being presented with odds of approx 4/16 on that one of the 2 will be president. This is effectively betting that 2 men in their late 70s will both not die or suffer a significant health condition over the next 9 months.

 

[lasvegan]

So after today’s debacle it’s obvious Biden is now done and dusted as a viable candidate. Who’s next?

 

[crodonilson]

You’ve answered your own question more or less. With 11/10 Trump and 2/1 Biden, you’re basically being presented with odds of approx 4/16 on that one of the 2 will be president. This is effectively betting that 2 men in their late 70s will both not die or suffer a significant health condition over the next 9 months.

Seems like the odds are in my favour then. Converting the odds into implied probabilities (5/4 and 11/5) gives an approx 75% (45% Trump, 30% Biden) chance one of them will be next president. I'd have thought that's closer to 95%, whilst they are both old and Bidens memory seems a little hazy for their respective ages they are both in decent physical condition and have access to the best healthcare possible. Seems like a fairly risk free way to bank some money.

 

[Stat Brother]

This seems incredibly unlikely but I wonder if the Dems are dangling sleepy in front of orange so he can 'scorched earth' the Republicans for them, only to switch out Joe once Trumpo has made all Republicans unelectable.

Going with Joe just makes no sense at all.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I’m no legal expert but surely it should be obvious that people in political office shouldn’t be above the law? That way madness lies.

Trump is a victim of abuse of the law by his looser opponents. So the law should be changed.

(That's how 80 million Americans think)

 

[nwgull]

Seems like the odds are in my favour then. Converting the odds into implied probabilities (5/4 and 11/5) gives an approx 75% (45% Trump, 30% Biden) chance one of them will be next president. I'd have thought that's closer to 95%, whilst they are both old and Bidens memory seems a little hazy for their respective ages they are both in decent physical condition and have access to the best healthcare possible. Seems like a fairly risk free way to bank some money.

I guess that's up to you to work out. Is there less than a 1 in 4 chance that the health of two late-70s men, both of whom are showing signs of aging and one of whom is overweight, will not deteriorate and prevent one or both from running in a presidential race in 9 months?

I can see the attractiveness of the bet, but it's not a risk-free money maker. A lot can happen between now and November, including Biden deciding to stand down.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

So after today’s debacle it’s obvious Biden is now done and dusted as a viable candidate. Who’s next?

The 'debacle' that was a Trump-appointed SC coming up with some spurious claims on the mental state of his 'boss's' main rival for the top job? I'm not completely dismissing what was in that report, but objective, it ain't.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

It made painful viewing - Biden coming under attack in a press conference for his memory losses and following Special Counsel not planning to prosecute him because he is ‘an elderly man with poor memory’

Rachel Maddow unpicks the press conference and derogatory attacks by Special Counsel Hur on Biden that go beyond the legal issues but Biden’s gaffes in the Press Conference did not help his case one bit



Note Special Prosecutor, Hur, was Republican (which is normal convention btw when investigating a Democrat).

It's a good job that Trump never gets confused, mis-reads the telepromter or just talks outright bullshit then! Funny how the other 'side' don't seem to mention that, but are seemingly all over this story

 

[Zeberdi]

It's a good job that Trump never gets confused, mis-reads the telepromter or just talks outright bullshit then! Funny how the other 'side' don't seem to mention that, but are seemingly all over this story

As I said:

It has become increasingly obvious only since the start of the campaign proper, that Biden‘s memory lapses are undermining his polling figures. A great deal of that is media perception/coverage though and Trump/Republicans slurring Biden - Trump has also made as many memory gaffes but in comparison to Biden, also behaved in a such a way as to question his psychological stability along with it.

The Republicans are exploiting what they see to be Biden’s achilles heal - they don’t have much other mud to throw at him.

If you watch the Rachel Maddow link (I posted above) who definitely aren’t the ‘other side’ - they dispel much of these accusations against Biden’s mental acuity as bullshit basically as well dismissing as inappropriate the claims by Hur (who is very unqualified to make any judgments about cognitive health, he’s not a doctor!).

 

[MJsGhost]

You’ve answered your own question more or less. With 11/10 Trump and 2/1 Biden, you’re basically being presented with odds of approx 4/16 on that one of the 2 will be president. This is effectively betting that 2 men in their late 70s will both not die or suffer a significant health condition over the next 9 months.

Joe Biden is 81. (EIGHTY ONE).

It's a demanding indictment of the US political system that the Dems are unable to find someone more appropriate to run and that it'll be a shootout between men with a combined age of 158!

As much as I respect his experience, his achievements in politics, and his opposition to Trump, I think it's frankly ridiculous that someone of Biden's age is running.

One doesn't need to be medically trained to know that his faculties won't be as sharp as they were and that he won't have the energy/stamina that he once had. This is arguably the most difficult and stressful job in the world (it is certainly one of, if not THE most important), so the person in it needs to be at the top of their game in ALL aspects. That isn't ageism, just fact. There's a reason that jobs like air traffic control have upper age limits.

Even if, against all odds, Biden is still at the top of his game mentally it doesn't really matter. The perception is that he isn't and it has left a very easy attack line for Trump.

If Trump is inflicted on the world for a second time, it will mostly be down to the fact that Biden is so old. He has failed to admit that a 2nd term is beyond him at his age and therefore he has failed to groom a successor.

How the f**k is a 77-year-old's best attack calling out the age of his opponent?! SHAMBLES!

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

Unlikely, for the reasons I mentioned above - once the Primaries start it is would be very difficult for the Dems to get a court ruling to put back the dates of the Primaries filing deadlines. It would also be suicide to pitch a relatively known outsider against Trump. Even Harris would not come near beating him at this stage. Trump was always by far the strongest Republican contender and has been since the GOP has been taken over by ‘Trumpism’ in the past several years - it would have made no difference who the Democrats put forward. Joe Biden as the sitting President was, until his mental acuity started coming under attack during the campaign, believed by the Dems to be the only Democrat candidate who could beat Trump. He is also the sitting President campaigning for his second term, traditionally an electoral advantage, although not so much in recent elections - it still gives Biden’s campaign a gravitas that any Republican candidate or indeed, any Democrat challenging Biden for the Democratic candidacy doesn’t have.

It has become increasingly obvious only since the start of the campaign proper, that Biden‘s memory lapses are undermining his polling figures. A great deal of that is media perception/coverage though and Trump/Republicans slurring Biden - Trump has also made as many memory gaffes but in comparison to Biden, also behaved in a such a way as to question his psychological stability along with it.

Primaries won’t matter, Biden could just say he’s not accepting the nomination.

Don’t think that will happen, but don’t need legal arguments around it.

You could then have a contested convention or appointment etc.

 

[US Seagull]

Primaries won’t matter, Biden could just say he’s not accepting the nomination.

Don’t think that will happen, but don’t need legal arguments around it.

You could then have a contested convention or appointment etc.

This. While Zeb isn't wrong, the nomination is run by the party and they could change the rules if they wanted. Not that there wouldn't be potential political consequences. Biden's delegates could be unbound by the time of the party conference and free to throw their support behind somebody else.

I'm not saying that would happen. I think it highly unlikely and it would upset a lot of people.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Joe Biden is 81. (EIGHTY ONE).

It's a demanding indictment of the US political system that the Dems are unable to find someone more appropriate to run and that it'll be a shootout between men with a combined age of 158!

As much as I respect his experience, his achievements in politics, and his opposition to Trump, I think it's frankly ridiculous that someone of Biden's age is running.

One doesn't need to be medically trained to know that his faculties won't be as sharp as they were and that he won't have the energy/stamina that he once had. This is arguably the most difficult and stressful job in the world (it is certainly one of, if not THE most important), so the person in it needs to be at the top of their game in ALL aspects. That isn't ageism, just fact. There's a reason that jobs like air traffic control have upper age limits.

Even if, against all odds, Biden is still at the top of his game mentally it doesn't really matter. The perception is that he isn't and it has left a very easy attack line for Trump.

If Trump is inflicted on the world for a second time, it will mostly be down to the fact that Biden is so old. He has failed to admit that a 2nd term is beyond him at his age and therefore he has failed to groom a successor.

How the f**k is a 77-year-old's best attack calling out the age of his opponent?! SHAMBLES!

And if Trump wins, HE will be 81 too, during the time he's in office! The whole thing is pretty bizarre, given the amount of people in the US who could potentially do the job. Although, Biden doesn't even make it into the top 10 of current oldest world leaders, so...

 

[MJsGhost]

And if Trump wins, HE will be 81 too, during the time he's in office! The whole thing is pretty bizarre, given the amount of people in the US who could potentially do the job. Although, Biden doesn't even make it into the top 10 of current oldest world leaders, so...

How many of that top 10 are running for reelection...?

 

[Eeyore]

I find it bewildering that the U.S cannot come up with candidates as more preferred options than either of these two.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

How many of that top 10 are running for reelection...?

Well, they were appointed in (from rank #1):
1982
2005
2015
2013
1991
1989
2023
2011
2015
2024.

So probably not many.

 

[MJsGhost]

Well, they were appointed in (from rank #1):
1982
2005
2015
2013
1991
1989
2023
2011
2015
2024.

So probably not many.

My point was that I'm not sure (m)any are/were ever elected at all, in the true democratic sense.

 

[pb21]

And if Trump wins, HE will be 81 too, during the time he's in office!

Technically maybe, but he will have the body and mind of the fittest and brightest 18 year old, as he has his whole life.

 

[Eeyore]

Technically maybe, but he will have the body and mind of the fittest and brightest 18 year old, as he has his whole life.

I've actually spotted a 'woosh' for the first time. I'm quite pleased with myself.