The difference being that the Dems have been doing pretty well under the current manager..... (just no-one wishes to accept this)It’s 10 months away from the election so I don’t put too much weight on polls yet (that can have as much as 6% margin of error) and influencing factors on how people respond can change.
Neither Trump nor Biden are popular among the American electorate (for different reasons) so turnout could be a big issue. Biden is clearly losing the battle on frailty and mental fitness as well as for his support for Israel.
How Popular Is Joe Biden?
Latest polls on President Joe Biden’s approval ratingsprojects.fivethirtyeight.com
Donald Trump : Favorability Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
Yep, Biden not stepping aside for a younger candidate could be electoral suicide for the Dems and although generally very rare that a sitting President is challenged by his own party in running for a second term, I’m astounded that he has not been advised against running again given he now has the second lowest approval rating of any President in US History:
The Dems find themselves in the unenviable position similar to a football club whose manager needs to go but keep him on for lack of an alternative.
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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*
- Thread starter Zeberdi
- Start date
I think he looks quite a lot like Elvis does now
Let me first go on the record to confirm I hate Trump and everything he stands for and I still can’t quite believe there’s a possibility he could be back in the White House, that said, with regards to your above comment I’m afraid that’s Trumps gift as he is in opposition
Lenny Rider
Well-known member
- Sep 15, 2010
- 6,020
Nero fiddling whilst Rome burns?
- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,942
- Thread starter
- #1,906
On the contrary, being in opposition has typically been regarded by political scientists as a disadvantage in American politics and the advantage has historically belonged to the incumbent. If being the incumbent is not the advantage it used to be, this is down to an electorate becoming more radical and reactionary to whomever is in power - as @Bodian pointed out above, ‘Dems have been doing well under the current leadership but no one wants to accept this’. Trump had the same problem in 2020.
The current dissatisfaction in American society goes deeper than either the Dems or Republicans can currently satisfy or reconcile and the electorate are simply fed up with the bipartisan polarisation that they are being forced to choose from and when either does get elected, governance is characterised by shutdowns and legislative failure. It is the significant proportion of swing voters whose only ideological commitment is to ‘change’ who are the largest influence on the outcome of elections now. Biden’s popularity in his third year among the American public is lower than even Trump’s was and the Dems ignore disaffected voters at their peril. Another Trump presidency would be disastrous but when you have a significant proportion of electorate wanting change for the sake of change and both parties relying on the demonisation of the other (negative campaigning ) it makes the risk of Trump getting in as the pendulum alternative very high.
Trump’s constant reliance on social media to spread fake news, politicise his criminal indictments and demonise his enemies is not a feature of being in opposition it is a feature of his personality and belief he is above the law - he did as much in the four years he was President too - it was that I was alluding to.
You may find this article interesting
Incumbency Is No Longer an Advantage in Presidential Elections
What if, in an era of profound distrust and ingrained political disaffection, incumbency has turned into disadvantage?
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That may be but whilst the other party is being a “grown up and running the country “ as I said it’s normal for the opposition to be busy slinging mud and I’m not sure why you’re surprised?
- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,942
- Thread starter
- #1,908
Ok I will try and explain the point I was making about Trump once more:
It is no more ‘normal ‘ for one Party or another in an electoral campaign to engage in negative campaigning whether in opposition or not. What I said about Trump‘s behaviour is not the normal behaviour of opposition or incumbent candidates.
My comments were therefore to do with Trump personally (rather than the fact he is not the incumbent) - everything he is doing now in terms of slamming the media, the DoJ, the Dems, demonising anyone who opposes him, politicising his law suits etc - he was doing all of that while he was President also - he is not enabled to do that by virtue of not being the incumbent candidate - the man is a goon whether he is in opposition or not!
It is because Trump is such a goon, it is making it difficult for the Dems to focus on positive campaigning - so for them it has been a negative campaign about ‘saving democracy’ from those that would destroy it - rather than campaigning positively on their policies. Election rules allow both sides in an electoral campaign to campaign- Trump has no ‘gifts’ in the sense that Biden doesn’t have… they have the same access to media, primary elections, venues and subject to the same funding limits.
As I said, it is ‘normal’ for the incumbent to have the advantage over opposition candidates at the end of their first term - in recent years though BOTH Dems and Reps have become embroiled in negative campaigning and a significant proportion of the electorate is swinging from one side to the other for the sake of change rather than for substantive policy differences - partly because those policies are not been promoted effectively to the electorate. That possibly is making it harder to win a second term for Presidents regardless of the Party - so what used to be very much an advantage for the incumbent is not so much now.
Please read the article to the link I posted - it is self- explanatory on the points I made in the original post to which you responded - perhaps clearer than I made.
Anyway, that was the point I was making about Trump’s infantile, chaotic and destructive behaviour- it makes him a difficult opponent to deal with. That was the same in 2016, 2020 when he was the incumbent President and as it is now he is likely to be the opposition candidate.
DC court has ruled Orange is not immune from prosecution regarding his part in capital riots.
- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,942
- Thread starter
- #1,910
And the Republican nominated Judge concurring!
This is a very significant ruling since Trump has no recourse to the Supreme Court of DC here - they bounced it back to the Appeals Court to make a decision. Tbh this was more than likely the outcome since the prosecution against Trump by the District of Columbia is already well under way.
However - This could give an indication of how the SCOTUS will swing in the Colorado case (Art 14 section 3 ) of whether Trump should be allowed to run for office again if found guilty of insurrection - Colorado and Michigan are awaiting a pending decision from SCOTUS before getting him removed from the ballot papers.. They will be hearing oral arguments from Trump’s layers on Thursday.
As I mused up thread, to avoid getting embroiled in political controversy, SCOTUS may bounce that decision back to the Colorado Supreme Ct to rule on the question of whether trump is guilty of insurrection but with a clarification on the interpretation of section 3 and whether it applies to barring Presidents from public office as well as other public officials. Either way, Trumps lawyers will have a hard time winning the immunity issue also before SCOTUS in the Colorado appeal after today’s ruling by the DC Appeals Court in another case.
Interesting days - I wonder if the Justice system is suffering from Trump-fatigue yet? The nightmare of scheduling the workload that Trump’s plethora of indictments and numerous appeals are creating would be enough to drive any judge insane.
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I’m no legal expert but surely it should be obvious that people in political office shouldn’t be above the law? That way madness lies.
"Underused" is brilliantly underused also.
- Oct 20, 2022
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The Supreme Court refused to accept the initial Appeal from DC so he will not be able to appeal on the same grounds but will need to raise further points of law - The Court today ruled on the issue as to whether Trump could be tried as a former president since there is no immunity - The Supreme Court may simply refuse to hear his appeal at all of course. Alternatively Trump could just try for a full Appeals Court panel instead.
But it is ridiculously complicated and there are plenty more legal questions Trump could find as grounds to appeal on - heading up to the Supreme Court - and more cases to do it from.
Trump has until Monday to get a ruling that will stay all the underlying issues and he only has 3 more working days to get that done or the pre-trial investigations will proceed. They are wising up to his delaying tactics.
(The other issue of Trump’s Presidential immunity claims will be heard by SCOTUS on Thursday - but that is an Appeal on different legal issues and relates to whether he can be disqualified from the ballot.)
Trump will also be cognisant of the fact he is haemorrhaging money and still has a campaign to run which might influence his decision over the next few days.
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This is all very important.
It seems that if he crossed the POTUS line, he can essentially get the justice department to drop cases against him. If convicted prior to the election, polls apparently show there being millions of Americans who won’t vote for a felon on principle.
There are so many ways he can delay things, that I can't see him being convicted of anything before November.
crodonilson
He/Him
Pretty grim reading for sleepy Joe tonight on the investigation into him mishandling classified documents.
One question for the more enlightened than me on the US Presidential election. I'm a keen gambler and I've just looked at the prices for next President and both Trump and Biden are over evens to be next President. Surely it has to be one of them? Biden is a shoe in to be Democrat candidate so long as he doesn't pop his clogs in the next 9 months and it seems almost certain Trump will be the Republican candidate. Yet I can get 5/4 on Trump and 11/5 on Biden? So I can bet on them both and whichever wins guarantee a reasonable profit. Am I missing something? Is there a really genuine other contender
One question for the more enlightened than me on the US Presidential election. I'm a keen gambler and I've just looked at the prices for next President and both Trump and Biden are over evens to be next President. Surely it has to be one of them? Biden is a shoe in to be Democrat candidate so long as he doesn't pop his clogs in the next 9 months and it seems almost certain Trump will be the Republican candidate. Yet I can get 5/4 on Trump and 11/5 on Biden? So I can bet on them both and whichever wins guarantee a reasonable profit. Am I missing something? Is there a really genuine other contender
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Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 31,274
A one party state - sounds more like the Russian election than the US election.
I would say there is still a reasonable doubt that either or both aren’t in the election, Biden through age and Trump through jailPretty grim reading for sleepy Joe tonight on the investigation into him mishandling classified documents.
One question for the more enlightened than me on the US Presidential election. I'm a keen gambler and I've just looked at the prices for next President and both Trump and Biden are over evens to be next President. Surely it has to be one of them? Biden is a shoe in to be Democrat candidate so long as he doesn't pop his clogs in the next 9 months and it seems almost certain Trump will be the Republican candidate. Yet I can get 5/4 on Trump and 11/5 on Biden? So I can bet on them both and whichever wins guarantee a reasonable profit. Am I missing something? Is there a really genuine other contender