[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[Zeberdi]

Is Haley hanging in there on the possibility that they will bar Trump from running somehow and she will get on the ballot paper effectively by default?

Maybe. There will be a lot of pressure on the far right of the Party for her to drop out but I don’t think she’ll concede until it is mathematically impossible for her to win the delegates required for the nomination. I think it unlikely IMO ( but not impossible) that a heavily weighted right wing SCOTUS would bar Trump from running - at least in all States (they may find a way to throw it back to the State courts to decide how they apply the law like they have done with a lot of contentious decisions in recent years eg Roe v Wade, Obamacare etc). SCOTUS will likely give a decision on Feb 8.

Alternatively, failing Trump being barred from running, she can rack up support in the GOP to get on the ticket as his running mate (for the Vice-Presidency) - there would be some logic to that - MAGA can’t stand her but she is very strong with independent voters and could pull the moderate swing voters in making it much harder for Biden to win swing States.

I feel sorry for ordinary Americans,

These are ‘ordinary Americans’ though, that is what’s so unbelievable- Desantis was far more extreme than Trump - Trump doesn’t just have the support of extreme nutters, he has the majority support of conservative Republicans in the GOP, wide support amongst hispanics, white evangelicals, large swathes of rural America - at some point you have to realise that IS America.

America is beginning to look fcuked either way ( and the rest of the world with it if Trump gets back in)

I like Biden, but honestly, he should have done the decent thing months ago and conceded that his age was going to be a stumbling block imo. I’m not sure Biden was the only one that could beat Trump.

It’s too late now though to do anything about that.

 

[Hamilton]

Trump’s reaction to Haley not pulling out is interesting and could have some nice implications. The longer she annoys him the more his true self comes out. He’s furious that she won’t give in. Now none of this will affect Trump’s MAGA base who are just too far gone, but it can affect the swing voters.

It’s also interesting to see that there’s 100s of ex-Trump political employees keeping their powder dry until the primaries are over. They are then due to go after him.

I think our hopes have to be the judicial system. Let’s hope he gets convicted. Either way, American politics needs a reset. We can’t have these octogenarians running the USA. Mitch McConnell has a lot to answer for in allowing this political culture to emerge, but so too do the democrats. Where are the Nicki Haley’s on both sides of the political spectrum?

 

[bhafc99]

I like Biden, but honestly, he should have done the decent thing months ago and conceded that his age was going to be a stumbling block imo. I’m not sure Biden was the only one that could beat Trump.

Couldn’t agree more. The fact he hasn’t stood aside and let the Democrats find a younger, more dynamic candidate is beyond stupid. I fear significant numbers are either going to vote Trump or - most likely - just not bother to vote at all due to
Biden’s age being such an off-putting factor.

 

[beorhthelm]

...

It’s also interesting to see that there’s 100s of ex-Trump political employees keeping their powder dry until the primaries are over. They are then due to go after him.

what would be the point of that, once he's got the nomination?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Gosh. New Hampshire Republicans are more stupid than I thought .

Not all of them.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Don't make the mistake of thinking they are stupid. They have their reasons for choosing Trump, you just don't understand those reasons, or perhaps more importantly why they have them.

I'm not going to claim I understand those reasons either - though I suspect a decline in impartial journalism, and crappy search and recommendation algorithms on many prominent websites have a lot to do with it.

Caught a clip on MSNBC, which I don't believe is a Trump positive channel, who said much the same.

Democrats are making the same mistake of calling Trump voters stupid and dumb, which only leads to more votes for him, the same tactic failed in 2016.

People view Trump as being right on a couple of policies, the main one being the Southern Boarder and the mess it is currently in

 

[chickens]

Caught a clip on MSNBC, which I don't believe is a Trump positive channel, who said much the same.

Democrats are making the same mistake of calling Trump voters stupid and dumb, which only leads to more votes for him, the same tactic failed in 2016.

People view Trump as being right on a couple of policies, the main one being the Southern Boarder and the mess it is currently in

Yup, they have (at least in their own heads) legitimate grievances. Their kids can’t get jobs that aren’t McJobs and they see immigration as a reason for that. They haven’t seen any significant rise in their standard of living for at least two decades, and they don’t believe the status quo have any answer to that.

Regrettably, in voting for Donald Trump, his rhetoric is the only anti-establishment part of him. He’ll enrich those who’ve enriched him, pass laws that keep him and his family out of jail and go after those he perceives as his enemies without mercy.

It won’t be about America once he’s in power, it will be about him. It’s not too dissimilar from the arguments over here regarding free movement of people. However, at least here we could have moved to beautiful parts of the world in France, Germany, Italy and Portugal etc.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

As someone who doesn't follow or understand US politics at all, it is kind of baffling to see that it will be the reanimated corpses of Trump and Biden slogging it out again.

I mean wtf

 

[raymondo]

Yup, they have (at least in their own heads) legitimate grievances. Their kids can’t get jobs that aren’t McJobs and they see immigration as a reason for that. They haven’t seen any significant rise in their standard of living for at least two decades, and they don’t believe the status quo have any answer to that.

Regrettably, in voting for Donald Trump, his rhetoric is the only anti-establishment part of him. He’ll enrich those who’ve enriched him, pass laws that keep him and his family out of jail and go after those he perceives as his enemies without mercy.

It won’t be about America once he’s in power, it will be about him. It’s not too dissimilar from the arguments over here regarding free movement of people. However, at least here we could have moved to beautiful parts of the world in France, Germany, Italy and Portugal etc

Yes, exactly

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Yup, they have (at least in their own heads) legitimate grievances. Their kids can’t get jobs that aren’t McJobs and they see immigration as a reason for that. They haven’t seen any significant rise in their standard of living for at least two decades, and they don’t believe the status quo have any answer to that.

Regrettably, in voting for Donald Trump, his rhetoric is the only anti-establishment part of him. He’ll enrich those who’ve enriched him, pass laws that keep him and his family out of jail and go after those he perceives as his enemies without mercy.

It won’t be about America once he’s in power, it will be about him. It’s not too dissimilar from the arguments over here regarding free movement of people. However, at least here we could have moved to beautiful parts of the world in France, Germany, Italy and Portugal etc.

Add to that they watch the Government send Billions to Ukraine for a war they have no interest in.

I think they should have just let him be after he lost the election, all they have done is gain votes for him.

He was miles behind in the polls before they started taking him to court, his approval rating keeps going up with every charge.

 

[raymondo]

Don't make the mistake of thinking they are stupid. They have their reasons for choosing Trump, you just don't understand those reasons, or perhaps more importantly why they have them.

I'm not going to claim I understand those reasons either - though I suspect a decline in impartial journalism, and crappy search and recommendation algorithms on many prominent websites have a lot to do with it.

I know you are right, 100%, I was just expressing frustration really. And as you say, I think I understand their reasons just not fully understanding why they have them.
Another reason to add to your list is I think 'parochial' views.

 

[Hamilton]

what would be the point of that, once he's got the nomination?

I think Republicans (sane ones) know that the party is in a state of crisis. It's been hijacked by the far right. They know that Trump is the only horse in the race, but they're looking further down the road to a post-Trump world. He and Biden won't be here in 5 year's time.

Despite our reactionary views on here, there are a lot of very sane Americans. There's just a dearth of political leadership. I work with a whole load of US companies and the people I talk to don't want Trump, but they don't want Biden either. They want some kind of leadership. They want politicians that will promise to make things better.

It's the same over here really. It might be amplified by Trump's persona, but the same concerns are playing out. It's why I'm now trying my hardest not to judge people who are voting Right or Left. I'm just trying to understand what's driving their fears and hopes. The vast majority of people are not racist, sexist, anti-woke, narcissistic etc. I think most people in this country care about one another, I think they don't hate immigrants, they respect people that just want to work and live in peace, BUT they're fed a media agenda by a few powerful men that distorts society. Sadly, I don't think any of us are truly aware of the power of media and how it does change and reinforce our reactionary thinking.

Anyhow, going off at a tangent. Short answer is, I think they are playing a longer game.

 

[chickens]

I think they should have just let him be after he lost the election, all they have done is gain votes for him.

He was miles behind in the polls before they started taking him to court, his approval rating keeps going up with every charge.

What I find difficult to determine from here is how many (if any) of the charges against him are politically motivated. If he’s doing what thousands of other people are doing and those others aren’t being investigated or charged then I’d have to say there’s a political motivation behind them.

However, if he’s actively trying to overturn the fair running of a democracy, as the Capitol riots and his phone call to request that votes be “found” for him suggest, then I don’t believe any democracy could or should allow such actions to go uninvestigated or unpunished if proven.

All he had to do for this to be a clean run for him, was not try to fix the previous election in his favour or intimidate lawmakers on Jan 6th. It’s quite a low bar to set, yet he still fails to get over it.

 

[Insel affe]

I think Republicans (sane ones) know that the party is in a state of crisis. It's been hijacked by the far right. They know that Trump is the only horse in the race, but they're looking further down the road to a post-Trump world. He and Biden won't be here in 5 year's time.

Despite our reactionary views on here, there are a lot of very sane Americans. There's just a dearth of political leadership. I work with a whole load of US companies and the people I talk to don't want Trump, but they don't want Biden either. They want some kind of leadership. They want politicians that will promise to make things better.

It's the same over here really. It might be amplified by Trump's persona, but the same concerns are playing out. It's why I'm now trying my hardest not to judge people who are voting Right or Left. I'm just trying to understand what's driving their fears and hopes. The vast majority of people are not racist, sexist, anti-woke, narcissistic etc. I think most people in this country care about one another, I think they don't hate immigrants, they respect people that just want to work and live in peace, BUT they're fed a media agenda by a few powerful men that distorts society. Sadly, I don't think any of us are truly aware of the power of media and how it does change and reinforce our reactionary thinking.

Anyhow, going off at a tangent. Short answer is, I think they are playing a longer game.

1000% this...

My only concern is that the Americans are allowed to play the longer game, and Trump does not alter the constitution or length of time he is allowed to stay in office, however that might be.

 

[Hamilton]

1000% this...

My only concern is that the Americans are allowed to play the longer game, and Trump does not alter the constitution or length of time he is allowed to stay in office, however that might be.

Yep. If he gets in he'll try to change the constitution. If that happens then we can stop worrying about North Korea, China, Russia, Iran etc. because there'll be a meltdown like we've never seen before.

 

[vegster]

His comments post victory in New Hampshire are truly scary.No grace in his victory speech just hate and threats and demeaning comments about his losing rivals.

 

[Hotchilidog]

Trump does not look well at all. The court cases seem to be getting to him, if he hangs on until the election I really fear for what he might try and do. Already he has rigged the Supreme Court to a damaging level, what could he do with a second term Swansong.

With Biden continuing to back the Israeli assault on Gaza as well as questions about his own health he could well gift Trump the next election.

How the US has ended up with these two doddering old men as the only candidates to choose from is a damning indictment of its political systems. A politics that is already hamstrung by an undemocratic electoral college and second chamber which overly favours a small number of voters. Throw in the power of money that stymies any independent thought at the highest levels in both parties it really is a broken system and barely be called democratic at this time.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

As this is the Primary, it is worth noting that New Hampshire voted Democrat in 2016 and 2020 election.

Seemingly, the Republican turn out was low, which didn’t help Haley.

 

[pb21]

I'm just trying to understand what's driving their fears and hopes.

I read Escape from Freedom by Erich Fromm a few years ago, I think this goes some way to understanding people as a cohort, what's driving their fears and hopes and why things can play out the way they do.

Despite being written in 1941 I think this offers some very insightful ideas.

 

[MJsGhost]

Yep. If he gets in he'll try to change the constitution. If that happens then we can stop worrying about North Korea, China, Russia, Iran etc. because there'll be a meltdown like we've never seen before.

I can see why you have skin in that game