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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%

  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,905
According to FiveThirtyEight polls, Trump’s popularity since 31 May (the day he was convicted in the Stormy Daniels hush money trial) has soared.

The conviction has reinvigorated Republican support - prior to May 31, Biden was making more percentage gains in the polling:


I’m not a pollster but I think this comes with a very strong proviso that most of the polls done since then that are reported on 5:38.com have been carried out by rightwing publications and organisations - the sample of poll subjects and the questions asked could be skewed toward an inherent Republican bias in the result. However, it does underlie the fact that most Republican voters see Trump’s conviction as politically motivated- or just don’t care.

For Democrats hoping his conviction will impact on Trump’s election chances, they may need to beat Trump the old fashioned way - with hard work, getting out the vote, focussing on policy differences ( and some might argue, keeping Biden away from the cameras as much as possible) -


On a positive note for Democrats, post-conviction feelings among a small minority of moderate or apathetic swing voters suggests a swing to Biden according to Times polls - that minority of swing voters is the area of voting behaviour to watch in this very tight election - they have largely disproportionate significance on who America choses to be their next President.

In 2020, just 44,000 votes across three battleground states prevented a tie in the electoral college.

In 2024, that margin could be even smaller.
 








Crawley Dingo

Political thread tourist.
Mar 31, 2022
1,080
According to FiveThirtyEight polls, Trump’s popularity since 31 May (the day he was convicted in the Stormy Daniels hush money trial) has soared.

The conviction has reinvigorated Republican support - prior to May 31, Biden was making more percentage gains in the polling:
Reflects that most Americans recognise a stitch up. A growing vote is different from a re-invigorated base, these are not the same thing. Growth is from neutrals.
 


Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,209
Cumbria
So the judge in the Stormy Danial's case may be ordering a mistrial, if so it will have to be held in an area that isn't 95% Democrat.
Sounds unlikely - an internet troll. And reported by Trump's lawyers - maybe it was a Trump supporter trying to scupper the trial?


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1717871240964.png
 








Deportivo Seagull

I should coco
Jul 22, 2003
5,466
Mid Sussex
Reflects that most Americans recognise a stitch up. A growing vote is different from a re-invigorated base, these are not the same thing. Growth is from neutrals.
sounds Very much like the ‘Susan Hall ahead in Lodon Mayoral election’ which unsurprisingly turned out to be bollocks.
 




Crawley Dingo

Political thread tourist.
Mar 31, 2022
1,080
Sounds unlikely - an internet troll. And reported by Trump's lawyers - maybe it was a Trump supporter trying to scupper the trial?


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Sounds unlikely - an internet troll. And reported by Trump's lawyers - maybe it was a Trump supporter trying to scupper the trial?


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Maybe, or maybe this is a cover for his cousin who had predetermined views. Untill I see more i think you may be correct but it does leave another doubt on top of all the others. Bragg campained like Fani in Georgia on a get trump ticket, not naming any offences. Most people get this and pre-judge the system as being pretty rotten.
 


Dick Swiveller

Well-known member
Sep 9, 2011
9,524
Sounds unlikely - an internet troll. And reported by Trump's lawyers - maybe it was a Trump supporter trying to scupper the trial?


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Wasting people lives since 2004? Sounds like Looney.
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,089
Goldstone
Brilliant! ..."...less so" 😂
The full answer is even more damning. "You don't want to affect people's lives if it's phony stuff in their, because there's a lot of phony stuff with that whole world"

Ok Donald 'Grab 'em by the pussy' Trump.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,336
Wiltshire
The full answer is even more damning. "You don't want to affect people's lives if it's phony stuff in their, because there's a lot of phony stuff with that whole world"

Ok Donald 'Grab 'em by the pussy' Trump.
Absolutely, completely damning.
"...less so" was just a teasing trailer to get people to watch it.

It's scary how Trump is so fluent in lying and manipulating - not always high quality though.
 


Curious Orange

Punxsatawney Phil
Jul 5, 2003
10,224
On NSC for over two decades...
Bragg campained like Fani in Georgia on a get trump ticket, not naming any offences.
It is true he referenced his previous prosecutions of Trump in his campaign, and it is also true that he said he'd continue the investigation initiated by the outgoing DA Cyrus Vance.
 






Albion my Albion

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 6, 2016
19,609
Indiana, USA
For Democrats hoping his conviction will impact on Trump’s election chances, they may need to beat Trump the old fashioned way - with hard work, getting out the vote, focussing on policy differences ( and some might argue, keeping Biden away from the cameras as much as possible) -

The amount of emails I'm getting from the Biden campaign organization and other Democrats has increased dramatically in the last few months.
 






A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,521
Deepest, darkest Sussex
 




Curious Orange

Punxsatawney Phil
Jul 5, 2003
10,224
On NSC for over two decades...
Oh, sorry, I was just expanding your comment for people who didn't know what Alvin Braggs 'get Trump' ticket was:
* Had previously prosecuted Trump
* Wouldn't stop the ongoing investigation set up by Cyrus Vance
 


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,905

Hunter’s conviction is pretty devastating for Biden on a personal level but it is hardly likely to impact on his polling.

What is significant is the difference between the way Trump has raged and rallied against judges, witnesses, the Democrats for months and months from the pulpit and on social media, calling his conviction for his criminal behaviour and indictments a witch-hunt and yet not one disparaging comment from President Biden about the justice system that could now send his son to prison - just quiet, sad dignity.

The contrast between these too men couldn’t be starker.
 


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