Sweden’s Coronovirus strategy will soon be the worlds

[Albion Dan]

Utter nonsense.

They understand that an Island can defend herself by not letting the virus in.

14-day quarantine or proof of vaccination or even a proven anti-body test is what you’ll need to get into these countries long term.

Both antipodean Governments have saved countless lives by shutting the cursed virus out whilst in this Country, we bent over undefended and took thousands and thousands of lethal shots of Covid-19, enough to record the second worse death rate in the world.

We will see in the longer term. Personally I think they are heading for a world of pain and their economies are going to either be devastated or they are going to take a big hit later on from the virus. You can’t hide forever.

 

[Albion Dan]

We know it wont work here we tried it but lasted a half a week. It is the much scoffed at "herd immunity" approach. Thousands went out clubbing and to the beach and we had to be put into lockdown. Each country will have to handle this differently and carefully.

If you took London away from us we wouldnt have been far off of doing it the same though. London screwed it for everyone because such a dense population and we couldnt really only lockdown London.

Is that London that now has an R rate of just 0.4 despite much higher people density and people working whilst the rest of the country still has high transmission and is now going to hold us back?

 

[Springal]

Saw this somewhere else

The "Swedish" model isn't a good comparison for any other country that i'm aware of. Sweden didn't lock down, but they didn't just let the virus run rampant either. They issued social distancing guidelines that some of the population adhered to and some didn't. Their measured response was wholly based on their population's acceptance of risk and their gamble that herd immunity could be obtained with minimal casualties. Basically Sweden traded lives for their economy.

Also, be careful in comparing numbers from one country to another. It's possible that the testing methods/resources are very different, reporting, etc. It's not always apples to apples (ie the Swiss healthcare system might have been more prepared to handle the pandemic and that's why their #s are lower).

I'm of the opinion that what we see now in Sweden is what we're going to get from most countries after they open up. There are going to be infections and outbreaks, but as long as it's below the economic pain threshold (the point at which a country is willing to re-shutdown their economy completely) we;re going to see life return slowly. The largest factors in all of this are going to be population density and political appetite for death.

 

[dazzer6666]

I sense a VERY long reply incoming from [MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION]

 

[jackanada]

Belgium, Spain and Italy have worse death rates, and that’s excluding countless non-hospital deaths in Italian and Spanish stats according to many of their officials and journalists.

Whether Spain or Italy's figures need a sharp upward correction is up for debate (as is whether ours do). In the case of Belgium they have been taking a diametrically opposed view of counting ALL deaths as Covid19 related unless proven otherwise.
Their death rate will be way lower than ours, and by not desperately trying to minimise the number of casualties they rapidly realised the impact in care homes and acted. As Belgium was early into this game and is 50% country 50% transit corridor I grant them far more leniency in assessing their response than I do ours.

 

[Justice]

They had a head start no Johnson & his Etonian chums

 

[Albion Dan]

I find it astounding how desperate people are to dismiss the Sweden model sighting density of population, which is rubbish as most people live in urban areas.

It's almost as if anything that may actually prove that the narrative weve been fed that its essential to cower behind our front doors isn't the best way would shatter the illusion they've been fed by the media.

 

[Weststander]

Whether Spain or Italy's figures need a sharp upward correction is up for debate (as is whether ours do). In the case of Belgium they have been taking a diametrically opposed view of counting ALL deaths as Covid19 related unless proven otherwise.
Their death rate will be way lower than ours, and by not desperately trying to minimise the number of casualties they rapidly realised the impact in care homes and acted. As Belgium was early into this game and is 50% country 50% transit corridor I grant them far more leniency in assessing their response than I do ours.

It’s not up for debate, ours needs a big upward correction, as already shown by total excess deaths.

We count all deaths with covid, not proven due to covid. Hospitals have done that as a matter of course from day one. Doctors sign off deaths elsewhere, and if they mention suspected covid, it counts in ONS covid stats.

Where’s your sauce that states “the Belgium death rate will be way lower than the UK’s”? Their government had been criticised too for its initial slow response to care homes, lack of PPE.

Mayors, journalists and scientists in Italy and Spain have throughout discussed and analysed huge under counting of deaths. Simply overwhelmed, hence the distressing pictures of mass coffins in Italy, Spain, (as well as NYC).

 

[BN41Albion]

It’s not up for debate, ours needs a big upward correction, as already shown by total excess deaths.

We count all deaths with covid, not proven due to covid. Hospitals have done that as a matter of course from day one. Doctors sign off deaths elsewhere, and if they mention suspected covid, it counts in ONS covid stats.

Where’s your sauce that states “the Belgium death rate will be way lower than the UK’s”? Their government had been criticised too for its initial slow response to care homes, lack of PPE.

Mayors, journalists and scientists in Italy and Spain have throughout discussed and analysed huge under counting of deaths. Simply overwhelmed, hence the distressing pictures of mass coffins in Italy, Spain, (as well as NYC).

Great post.

 

[Stockholm Syndrome]

Football clubs are rather upset here in Sweden at the moment. The authorities have not given the football league permission to begin playing, unlike other parts of Europe. It's not the because playing itself is considered dangerous, but the possibility of more than 50 people gathering in bars to watch games. Apparently open bars and football in empty stadiums is a difficult combination.

In other news, results of a major antibody testing study is supposed to be published next week. Some experts reckon that 25% of the population in Stockholm could be more or less immune.

 

[Fitzcarraldo]

Is what has happened in Sweden not linked to other countries locking down and therefore them not having a major outbreak in the way there has been in Italy, France and the UK? People weren't moving around and the virus spread slowed and remained in Sweden at a manageable level.

I also think it seems ridiculous now people trying to claim that we could have not had a lockdown and people would have been happily going about their business, not worrying about 1000+ daily deaths. This number presumably would have got much higher as it stayed to below 1000 (reported) with the lockdown and most of the health service being turned over to treat COVID-19 patients. Not much point if everything is open whilst nothing is used.

 

[Solid at the back]

Anyone comparing the UK with Sweden's strategy and suggesting that we should of done the same, are just a bit thick, really. One can only assume they can work from home or are unemployed anyway. Putting them at reduced risk, whilst it's okay for the rest of us to risk infecting our loved ones. Not for me, thanks

 

[RossyG]

 

[Swansman]

I sense a VERY long reply incoming from [MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION]

I dont have that much to say on this tbh. Time will tell. As I see it there is to sensible ways of dealing with the pandemic: our way (herd immunity) or the way of the other Nordic countries (heavy lockdown before the spread really started). The way of the big countries - make too little and too much at the same time while also doing it too late - are putting you in a pretty weird situation both right now and looking forward.

If there is a fat second wave and the virus remains as deadly as it is, our way will turn out to be the sensible one. If the second wave is smaller or randomly dont happen at all, the Danish/Norwegian way are likely to turn out more sensible.

If it goes on even longer than that and any cure/vaccine is delayed for a long time, our way will be the only way.

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Quite interesting. Wonder what happened in March 93 since there was no big accident. Was the peak of our 90s financial crisis though, possibly a lot of suicides + peak AIDS + bad flu season.

 

[Saunders]

Is that London that now has an R rate of just 0.4 despite much higher people density and people working whilst the rest of the country still has high transmission and is now going to hold us back?

Yes it went into lockdown. Your point?

 

[Saunders]

Whether Spain or Italy's figures need a sharp upward correction is up for debate (as is whether ours do). In the case of Belgium they have been taking a diametrically opposed view of counting ALL deaths as Covid19 related unless proven otherwise.
Their death rate will be way lower than ours, and by not desperately trying to minimise the number of casualties they rapidly realised the impact in care homes and acted. As Belgium was early into this game and is 50% country 50% transit corridor I grant them far more leniency in assessing their response than I do ours.

The spanish people will disagree with you on their rapid care home response. Belgium is the only country other than us recording all outside deaths and care homes and anyone with covid-19 be it the cause of death or not. That is why Belgiums death rate is the highest in Europe because they are reporting it. The other countries wont be able to hide their excess deaths forever. We started adjusting our figures higher once the ONS stats for that month became available (are there similar websites for Italy France and Spain?) , there are still a large number of deaths to add even to ours for people who werent tested. There is no debate to it, there are a large number of deaths in Europe not included in their stats right now.

On the plus side a lot more people have had this virus than has been reported too so the rate will also go down because of that.

 

[Machiavelli]

Their strategy would never have worked here for three key reasons:

- We have a large, dense population and they don't.
- Their young people frequently live alone and ours don't
- Their population can be better trusted to adhere to government advice and ours can't

Yup, add in that they're one of the most equal and educated societies in the world, and you'll see why what they've done can't be replicated over here.
Sweden has become a bit of a poster boy for certain strands of opinion, even though they've got much higher death rates than their surrounding countries. I've requested on a number of occasions why those that go on about Sweden, don't also address the contrast between Argentina (early and full lockdown) and Brazil, with its patchwork response and idiotically dangerous behaviour and guidance from its President.

 

[Bakero]

Sweden has become a bit of a poster boy for certain strands of opinion, even though they've got much higher death rates than their surrounding countries. I've requested on a number of occasions why those that go on about Sweden, don't also address the contrast between Argentina (early and full lockdown) and Brazil, with its patchwork response and idiotically dangerous behaviour and guidance from its President.

Confirmation bias.

 

[Weststander]

The spanish people will disagree with you on their rapid care home response. Belgium is the only country other than us recording all outside deaths and care homes and anyone with covid-19 be it the cause of death or not. That is why Belgiums death rate is the highest in Europe because they are reporting it. The other countries wont be able to hide their excess deaths forever. We started adjusting our figures higher once the ONS stats for that month became available (are there similar websites for Italy France and Spain?) , there are still a large number of deaths to add even to ours for people who werent tested. There is no debate to it, there are a large number of deaths in Europe not included in their stats right now.

On the plus side a lot more people have had this virus than has been reported too so the rate will also go down because of that.

Very good post.

Belgium have uniquely it appears recorded far closer to the reality, than other high death toll nations.

Looking at initial total excess deaths figures/graphics for nations (these are actually very difficult to compare, because this particular data for several countries appears far later than for others), predictably, the totals per million are extremely large in the Netherlands, UK, Spain, Belgium and Italy, with France also high but a bit lower. In addition north-east US states will also shirley be high.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

We will see in the longer term. Personally I think they are heading for a world of pain and their economies are going to either be devastated or they are going to take a big hit later on from the virus. You can’t hide forever.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-asia-52540733


As you said.

They can’t open borders for a long time, whilst Europe is looking to open.