So who's going to stop us now???

[theroyal]

To be honest after last year and also the heavy weight on our shoulders of the way The Albion have been to hell and back in the last 30years, I'm not counting any chickens until we are over the line. You have come from a long way back the last time you went up. I don't think we can discount anyone in the top half of the table of mounting a challenge on the auto places. I think if The Albion get over Christmas and are still 8 or so points ahead at the end of January, then I might start to believe. The cash in the PL is so large that if the Chinese do take over your club, they would be daft not to heavily invest so you have a chance of going up this year or next year. We've all learnt from the FFP breaking clubs of QPR and Bournemouth, that you need to spend heavy to get to the PL, especially if you have no parachute payments.

Hmm. The last time we went up to the PL (11/12) we were 10th with 30 points at this stage and ended up winning the title, 13 points adrift. That would be equivalent to someone like Barnsley or Preston winning the title this year. However, the teams in the top two (Southampton/West Ham) also went up themselves.

I guess that doesn't make you feel any less nervous! But honestly, from the outside it seems like you're very consistent so I wouldn't lose much sleep, we all seem to be taking points off each other.

 

[Triggaaar]

Derby stalled dramatically under Schteve not so long ago; falling from the top of the table to finish outside the playoffs.

So you're saying that Derby aren't a threat and we can get the party started?

 

[Rugrat]

So you're saying that Derby aren't a threat and we can get the party started?

Gatecrashing your chat but I don't see Derby as the biggest threat atm. They have a really tough 2nd half, and have to play 8 of what I imagine will be the top 10 away from home. Assuming 89 is the magic number for auto's (it could be higher) then they can only drop a maximum 21 points from their next 26 games and I'd suggest they will drop a load in those 8 games. It would give them very little to play with in their other 18 games

Looking at fixtures I'd say Reading are still the most likely to catch us. That said it's dynamic and so I reserve the right to change my view this time next week

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Now is the time to continue a win after win sequence and crush any hope the pack have of catching us.

Beat Birmingham, beat QPR, beat Cardiff then look at the table.


Destroy the belief of those below.

 

[Triggaaar]

Looking at fixtures I'd say Reading are still the most likely to catch us.

Everything made sense until that.

 

[Triggaaar]

Destroy the belief of those below.

To be honest, I think most below us (oops, below Newcastle) are thinking of the playoffs anyway. Of course each team will be looking at their next game, but the table can affect whether they're happy with an away point or want to fight for a win.

 

[Rugrat]

Everything made sense until that.

I only said 'most likely' not that I expected them too

I've run the numbers, you saw it here first!

3. Reading
4. Narch
5. Derby
6 Massive

 

[Bob'n'weave]

To be honest, I think most below us (oops, below Newcastle) are thinking of the playoffs anyway. Of course each team will be looking at their next game, but the table can affect whether they're happy with an away point or want to fight for a win.

Agreed. If we were in 4th or 5th place I would be banking on a playoff place rather than hoping for a BHA implosion. Despite there being some strong outfits in this division, the table below us looks like they just haven't got their shit together, and we have!

 

[Triggaaar]

I only said 'most likely' not that I expected them too

Yeah I know. I just don't see Reading as strong as Derby, Lol, or Fulham.

 

[Peter Grummit]

Appreciate people don't want to count chickens yet. The team will rightly continue to take each game as it comes and not get ahead of themselves.

Bookies make a living being dispassionate. The best odds you can get currently on BHA being promoted are 2/5. Not a shoe-in, but a very, very strong position. So, rather than thinking, what do we need to do...? it's perhaps more appropriate to assess the risks:
1. Injuries
In general, we have such a strong squad that the injuries we've had have barely been a bump in the road. Those who didn't start the season as first choice have been solid and made important contributions (Sidwell, Pocognoli, Murphy). The key risk here is striker injuries. Our current crop of 3 decent strikers is the bare minimum we need. We have been fortunate to date, but if 1, or heaven help us 2 strikers were crocked we would be exposed.
Risk Factor: 6/10
Mitigation: Sign at least 1 more striker in January

2. Suspensions
We've already suffered from suspensions to Bong, Baldock, Stephens (twice), Dunk and Lualua. In general, it hasn't really affected us (see above), although Baldock was missing for the Brentford defeat. Dunk now on 9 bookings and in danger of missing FIVE matches before the end of the season.
Risk Factor: 2/10
Mitigation: Dunk needs to cut out the dissent and stupid bookings. Get Goldson game time in the FA Cup.

3. Loss of Form
The strong squad should allow CH to cover loss of individual form. The risks are the strikers (see above) and Knocky, who has not regained his early season form. Without him, we may struggle to break down the better teams.
Risk Factor: 3/10
Mitigation: Bolster the attacking squad; continue to manage AK's workload and provide support to the guy.

4. Rivals
If we broadly keep our form and results record, it will take a remarkable run from someone to catch Newcastle or us, along the lines of Reading's incredible run in 2011/12. I suspect only Derby have the squad and the momentum to attempt this.
Risk Factor 2/10
Mitigation: Don't lose at home to Derby(!)

In practice, I think we would need at least 2 of these risk factors to go pear-shaped for us not to make promotion. The exception would be if we fail to add to our strikers in January AND we then get striker injuries. That alone could scupper us

PG

 

[jimhigham]

With seven straight wins it would be daft to rule out Derby. We need to maintain form throughout December to demoralise the chasing pack.

 

[Prince Monolulu]

With seven straight wins it would be daft to rule out Derby. We need to maintain form throughout December to demoralise the chasing pack.

Derby. Right on our tails.

 

[BensGrandad]

It is still firmly in our own hands to take or f..k up.

 

[Sheebo]

Derby winning late is annoying for sure...

 

[Peter Grummit]

Derby. Right on our tails.

Well, 10 points behind.

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

 

[GT49er]

Decent call that. Once the FL wake up from their slumber and suddenly notice we're top two, they'll send Mr.Dean down on a fortnightly basis to restore the natural order.

........or just send him to play his favourite role as a homer in our 13 remaining away games.

 

[Prince Monolulu]

Well, 10 points behind.

As they say only too often in the plethora of NordicNoir I watch....'Precise'

 

[BensGrandad]

Derby. Right on our tails.

Still 4 wins behind us as 3 wins and a draw on points is ok but our GD is far better. To catch us we have to drop 10 pointsthat they gain so at the moment they are not a threat.

 

[Prince Monolulu]

Still 4 wins behind us as 3 wins and a draw on points is ok but our GD is far better. To catch us we have to drop 10 pointsthat they gain so at the moment they are not a threat.

Exactly BG, exactly.

 

[GT49er]

Still 4 wins behind us as 3 wins and a draw on points is ok but our GD is far better. To catch us we have to drop 10 pointsthat they gain so at the moment they are not a threat.

Would be great if there were four games to go. Unfortunately there are 25!

Still rather be where we are rather than where they are though. Points in the bag and all that.