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[Politics] Sir Keir Starmer’s route to Number 10







Chicken Run

Member Since Jul 2003
NSC Patron
Jul 17, 2003
19,811
Valley of Hangleton
As you say, the Tories are done.

Some will argue however that the grey, nothingness of the incoming blandness is nothing other than the shrewdest of master plans, and all in the garden will be rosy, red rosy.
You’re wrong, even those with shiny detached houses in Hove Park & indeed Westdene/Withdean with Porsche and BMW cars parked on the Bloc Pave have had enough….
 




Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,262
Cumbria
Tories are done, but anyone kidding themselves that Blair II is the answer will discover they are very much mistaken.
Blair II ?? Blair was full of charm and charisma, and swept to power on a flood of ideas, positivity, and hopes for new beginnings.

Starmer is hardly that. Indeed, none of that really - the opposite of Blair I would say.
 


WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 10, 2003
27,772
Blair II ?? Blair was full of charm and charisma, and swept to power on a flood of ideas, positivity, and hopes for new beginnings.

Starmer is hardly that. Indeed, none of that really - the opposite of Blair I would say.

He also got elected in a time of an economic boom that allowed him to fund a whole series of positive changes across the country, whilst Starmer will be elected at the lowest economic point in recent history after the last 5 years of economically incompetent buffoonery.

But they both have a red rosette and I suspect that's why our friend believes they're the same :wink:
 




DJ NOBO

Well-known member
Jul 18, 2004
6,818
Wiltshire
I'll believe the Conservatives are toast when I see them voted out.
You will do. They’ve made far too many mistakes. They’ve made populist changes too but these have been lost in their own chaos.
The Tories have also failed to make hay on the non-committal approach of Labour.
Their only hope is economic improvement this year and traditional Tory voters bottling an alternative vote once they’re in that ballot box.
It almost certainly won’t be enough though.
 
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Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
He also got elected in a time of an economic boom that allowed him to fund a whole series of positive changes across the country, whilst Starmer will be elected at the lowest economic point in recent history after the last 5 years of economically incompetent buffoonery.

But they both have a red rosette and I suspect that's why our friend believes they're the same :wink:
The Tories know they’re toast which is why 57 of them have said they won’t stand again. The earth is being salted already to make life as difficult as possible for Labour to correct bad policies and corruption.
Sir Keir Starmer would do well to be completely honest with the state of affairs when they take over, and the difficulties in store. Anyone expecting instant change will be disappointed. It will be more of stop the rot.
There will be plenty for people to snipe at, but then sniping never built anything.
 




Lenny Rider

Well-known member
Sep 15, 2010
6,015
Should we read anything into these poor turnouts in these by election landslides, both under 38%?


I doubt he will, but if Sunak were to entice the stayaway Tory voters back to the polling stations at the GE, will the predicted landslide be as big as they would have us believe?

In Worthing they are predicting both Sir Peter Bottomley and Tim Loughton will lose their seats, even in these crazy times that’s still a big ask.

We do have a Labour controlled Council in Worthing now, after a number of elections with perceived stay at home Tory voters, but they have quickly discovered it’s far easier being in opposition, from the Lib Dems leaving WBC ‘debt free’ when they were ousted in 2004, Worthing’s financial position isn’t exactly ‘robust’, but I‘d imagine that’s mirrored around the country?
 


Bob!

Coffee Buyer
Jul 5, 2003
11,632
Why are so many people buying the Conservative party narrative that the by-election defeats are down to the low turnout which is down to just ex Tory voters staying at home.
 


Lenny Rider

Well-known member
Sep 15, 2010
6,015
Why are so many people buying the Conservative party narrative that the by-election defeats are down to the low turnout which is down to just ex Tory voters staying at home.
Because there‘s a good chance that there is? 🤷‍♂️


Didn't the pollsters get caught out with the Trump result in 2016 with all the ‘blue collar’ Americans who hadn’t voted in the Obama years?

Fwiw I think the Tories are f***** but possibly not as much as the media are telling us.
 




Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
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Jul 16, 2003
58,792
hassocks
Why are so many people buying the Conservative party narrative that the by-election defeats are down to the low turnout which is down to just ex Tory voters staying at home.
It is part of the reason, Labours vote plummeted in one of the seats, so they stayed at home as well.

Its a mixture of staying at home/reform taking votes/people want change.
 


A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,548
Deepest, darkest Sussex
 


mwrpoole

Well-known member
Sep 10, 2010
1,519
Sevenoaks
Should we read anything into these poor turnouts in these by election landslides, both under 38%?


I doubt he will, but if Sunak were to entice the stayaway Tory voters back to the polling stations at the GE, will the predicted landslide be as big as they would have us believe?

In Worthing they are predicting both Sir Peter Bottomley and Tim Loughton will lose their seats, even in these crazy times that’s still a big ask.

We do have a Labour controlled Council in Worthing now, after a number of elections with perceived stay at home Tory voters, but they have quickly discovered it’s far easier being in opposition, from the Lib Dems leaving WBC ‘debt free’ when they were ousted in 2004, Worthing’s financial position isn’t exactly ‘robust’, but I‘d imagine that’s mirrored around the country?
Well I do believe in both by-elections this week Labour hardly increased their vote numbers. But a mass stay at home Tory vote enabled the big swing numbers reported. In GE’s turnout is normally 65-70% so who knows how that will pan out if the turnout is upped. Many were suggesting a hung parliament a while back and that could still play out. I think Scotland holds the key for Labour, they need to make big inroads into the 50 odd SNP seats.
 




Lenny Rider

Well-known member
Sep 15, 2010
6,015

I would hope he and his new government will be able to do something about the ‘Mental Health Epidemic’ we now have in this country?

With Mr Windsor being a relatively well known figure via Strictly Come Dancing his tragic death was third up on the 6 O’Clock News, but it’s sadly the tip of the iceberg.

Suicide is now the biggest killer in the UK of males* between the ages of 18-45, more than Cancer, road accidents or anything else.

Yet Mental Health services in the NHS are constantly being cut 🤷‍♂️


*sadly the number of women taking their own lives isn’t far behind.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,123
Faversham
Blair II ?? Blair was full of charm and charisma, and swept to power on a flood of ideas, positivity, and hopes for new beginnings.

Starmer is hardly that. Indeed, none of that really - the opposite of Blair I would say.
Interesting. I liked Blair, but he was rather keen on his focus groups, PPF and consensual politics. The glitz and glad handing with Britpop and the like was fun at first. I was expecting that he would gently shift us to the left without frightening the horses, but once Prescott announced that reversing the rail privatization was impossible owing to the way Major had set it up, the prospect of 'socialism' began to seem unlikely. Still, the emoting and the niceness were pleasing. Meanwhile the red tape clogging up the NHS started to increase. Slowly at first, but incrementally nevertheless. The internal market remained. In my HE sector, the drive to measure us using spurious targets continued unabated. Later, the decision to back the US over Iraq was foursquare supported by the Tories, and completely unavoidable. The liberals and greens opposed it, but they would, wouldn't they. However there was no need to make up the existence of WMD. That was crass. And, hindsight is a wonderful thing, but not having an exit strategy . . . an invasion with the sole purpose of having Saddam murdered looks very stupid when afterwards America sat back and let ISIS emerge. Any comment on that Blair? Nope. Still defending the 'dodgy dossier'. He seemed to let the labour left live happily in their echo chamber, and tolerated some rum coves, albeit the likes of Corbyn, egregiously disloyal as he was, was an irrelevance for decades. And he couldn't deal with Brown. In the end he caved it to him when it was clear to all that Brown (just like me) is temperamentally unfit to be a leader. That was not in the best interests of the country (or indeed the labour party).

So if Starmer is the exact opposite, not good at emoting, not glitzy, not charismatic, not in thrall to Rupert Murdoch, not running a mile at anything with a whiff of socialism about it, not waving flashy Big Ideas about like some 1980s breakfast TV executive, not weak in the face of capricious colleagues, capable of acting swiftly and without fuss when one of the more stupid gobshite element of his party decides to have an anti-Semitic spasm and, who knows, even possibly a vision to nudge politics gently to the left, then I'm more than happy.

Not all politicians are the same, and there are different ways to be effective.
 
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Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,262
Cumbria
Interesting. I liked Blair, but he was rather keen on his focus groups, PPF and consensual politics. The glitz and glad handing with Britpop and the like was fun at first. I was expecting that he would gently shift us to the left without frightening the horses, but once Prescott announced that reversing the rail privatization was impossible owing to the way Major had set it up, the prospect of 'socialism' began to seem unlikely. Still, the emoting and the niceness were pleasing. Meanwhile the red tap clogging up the NHS started to increase. Slowly at first, but incrementally nevertheless. The internal market remained. In my HE sector, the drive to measure us using spurious targets continued unabated. Later, the decision to back the US over Iraq was foursquare supported by the Tories, and completely unavoidable. The liberals and greens opposed it, but they would, wouldn't they. However there was no need to make up the existence of WMD. That was crass. And, hindsight is a wonderful thing, but not having an exit strategy . . . an invasion with the sole purpose of having Saddam murdered looks very stupid when afterwards America sat back and let ISIS emerge. Any comment on that Blair? Nope. Still defending the 'dodgy dossier'. He seemed to let the labour left live happily in their echo chamber, and tolerated som rum coves, albeit the likes of Corbyn, egregiously disloyal as he was, was an irrelevance for decades. And he couldn't deal with Brown. In the end he caved it to him when it was clear to all that Brown (just like me) is temperamentally unfit to be a leader. That was not in the best interests of the country (or indeed the labour party).

So if Starmer is the exact opposite, not good at emoting, not glitzy, not charismatic, not in thrall to Rupert Murdoch, not running a mile at anything with a whiff of socialism about it, not waving flashy Big Ideas about like some 1980s breakfast TV executive, not weak in the face of capricious colleagues, capable of acting swiftly and without fuss when one of the more stupid gobshite element of his party decides to have an anti-Semitic spasm and, who knows, even possibly a vision to nudge politics gently to the left, then I'm more than happy.

Not all politicians are the same, and there are different ways to be effective.
I agree - but it's hard to get this across to the public in this day of celebs and soundbites isn't it.
 


Bob!

Coffee Buyer
Jul 5, 2003
11,632

I would hope he and his new government will be able to do something about the ‘Mental Health Epidemic’ we now have in this country?

With Mr Windsor being a relatively well known figure via Strictly Come Dancing his tragic death was third up on the 6 O’Clock News, but it’s sadly the tip of the iceberg.

Suicide is now the biggest killer in the UK of males* between the ages of 18-45, more than Cancer, road accidents or anything else.

Yet Mental Health services in the NHS are constantly being cut 🤷‍♂️


*sadly the number of women taking their own lives isn’t far behind.

You just need to look at Labours Missions

Mental health.
Labour will recruit 8,500 additional mental health staff to drive down waiting lists, funded through closing tax loopholes. Labour will make sure every young person will have access to a specialist mental health professional at school. With Labour’s Young Futures plan, every community will have an open access mental health hub for young people (11-24), providing early intervention through drop-in services. The schools’ element is paid for by ending tax breaks for private schools. The staffing is paid for by abolishing tax loopholes for private equity managers.
 




Lenny Rider

Well-known member
Sep 15, 2010
6,015
You just need to look at Labours Missions

Mental health.
Labour will recruit 8,500 additional mental health staff to drive down waiting lists, funded through closing tax loopholes. Labour will make sure every young person will have access to a specialist mental health professional at school. With Labour’s Young Futures plan, every community will have an open access mental health hub for young people (11-24), providing early intervention through drop-in services. The schools’ element is paid for by ending tax breaks for private schools. The staffing is paid for by abolishing tax loopholes for private equity managers.
Thank you Bob ❤️


My friends daughter has suicidal tendencies, she was assigned an NHS key worker shortly before lockdown, she’s had 5 appointments in 3 years 🙈
 


stewart12

Well-known member
Jan 16, 2019
1,920
In Worthing they are predicting both Sir Peter Bottomley and Tim Loughton will lose their seats, even in these crazy times that’s still a big ask.
I think Loughton losing is more likely than Bottomley, It would be a big shock for the Tories to lose both of those seats. My prediction is that they'll cling on to West but lose East. I think the demographic shift in that neck of the woods has affected East more than West, with the West seat including areas like Ferring and East Preston which remain staunchly conservative. Tbh, despite never having any desire to vote Tory, I don't mind Peter Bottomley. Have dealt with Tim Loughton for work things in the past and found him utterly repulsive.
 


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