Is it PotG?
Thrifty non-licker
An appreciated comprehensive response.I think that question depends on a variety of factors - this will be a long answer.
First of all, how do you define hard left? The Socialist Campaign Group? Momentum? Or what?
It's a very fluid definition. I've seen Lloyd Russell Moyle, one of our local MPs, described as far left. He's a member of the Open Labour group, which certainly wouldn't be seen as far left by the likes of Momentum but would be seen as raging Marxists by many Tory members. In fact, if you read the Telegraph, Starmer himself is well on the far left.
Then there are changes over time. The Tribune group in Labour was always seen as the far left of the party but Starmer is a member, so the idea that it's any sort of far left group is for the birds.
And do you include groups like Socialist Appeal, which used to be in the Labour Party but have been expelled for anti-semitism. Do they still have an influence?
It's also idealistic to think that these groups work together. Once upon a time, I was an elected union official and the grief I got from different left wing factions acting against each other far exceeded anything I got from employers. The Monty Python Judean Popular Front sketch has it bang on.
What do you mean by "keeping their powder dry"? These groups are always agitating on various issues. Sometimes they'll have success but only if it's been picked up by a mainstream group. I don't see how they've disappeared: these groups have always been here but never really influential. There was a lot of talk about Momentum but even at their peak, they accounted for about 9 to 10% of the Labour Party. The two groups that have had some influence were the aforementioned Tribune and the Militant faction - now expelled.
As for unions. They're often (but not always) seen as on the right of the party. It's fanciful to think of unions as being in the vanguard of revolution - they're looking after the members and that's always at the forefront of union leaders' minds. If they can effect political change: great, but members' pay and conditions come first. Starmer knows that. And the Labour Party is certainly not going to get heavy with its paymasters.
And to go back to the idea that they can cause grief to a government with a low majority. I'm not convinced that they can - they wont' always have the same view and, even if they do, they may not consider it the same way. Some people may think it's worthwhile voting against policy x, some may think it's not worth getting heavy about it and abstain; some may agree with the policy and vote for it.
Consider this: the second Major government had a wafer thin majority but lost only six votes in five years (the last two, when it had lost its majority). The four votes it lost as a majority party were all on Europe. Starmer is keen to neutralise Europe as a bone of contention, if he does that, I can't see where a Labour government will lose a vote - what other issue is going to unite the Tories and the likes of Burgon and Abbott?
I think if anything the last 5 years have been unpredictable, and I would wager the next 5 will be similarly challenging to guage and evaluate.
I think Starmer will face issues from within and without, and eventually when he does start to play his cards then the action will start for real.