Russian jet shot down ,WW3 about to begin ?

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

No...everybody overestimates the Russian ability to wage effective war against anyone other than rag tag fanatics.

This. Russian military capability is severely depleted. Out of date old crap. If their jets can't evade Turkish missiles I don't think that we should be that worried.

 

[TSB]

Get a grip.

 

[Trufflehound]

Wrong, they are part of NATO because they have a long and threatening border with Russia....no other reason.

Turkey has no border with Russia.

They once had a short border with the Soviet Union.

 

[heathgate]

A buffer then you could say, no other reason.

Yes, being in an isolated position, NATO membership gave them security from the iron curtain gang, right through the cold war era.......no nukes were ever positioned in Turkey.

 

[heathgate]

Turkey has no border with Russia.

They once had a short border with the Soviet Union.

Yes...that was the origin of the NATO membership.....sorry....semantics.

In fact it faced off across land borders and the Black Sea with the Soviet bloc....strategic.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

This. Russian military capability is severely depleted. Out of date old crap. If their jets can't evade Turkish missiles I don't think that we should be that worried.

Mostly, but they do have a small amount of good stuff.

Like the S300 anti aircraft missile system they have installed in Syria ( presumably to shoot down all the ISIS aircraft... ).
If things kicked off this would have to be destroyed early days by the B2 Spirits and F22s, or we could see a lot of NATO jets taken down.

 

[Stumpy Tim]

Putin has been clear from day 1 he's against anything he perceives as against Russian interests and his grip on power. Western policy in the middle east has been a mess but Putin's I told you so routine rings hollow when you see how he likes to interfere in other countries.

In addition the keep brutal dictator's in power to keep a lid on the region argument is not a zero cost policy as history shows.

We may have some common interest in Syria but his motives are not the same as ours. If/ when Assad regains full control and starts butchering the population again there will be a deafening silence from Moscow.

I would argue his motives are exactly the same as ours - he's trying to get the best deal for his nation. He's just been cleverer about how to go about it - he foresaw the mess of Iraq & Libya (and Afghanistan to an extent).

And if Putin likes to interfere in other countries, what would you say about how the US, UK, France, Germany etc interfere in other countries - I don't think the West have a spotless record in that department!

 

[drew]

In theory but they would appear to be a little too close to ISIS for my liking.

Appreciate that but with Nato, not sure we have a choice. Isn't the ethos that an attack on one member is an attack on all members.

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

Turkey has no border with Russia.

But quite an important relationship is terms of shipping.

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

Mostly, but they do have a small amount of good stuff.

Like the S300 anti aircraft missile system they have installed in Syria ( presumably to shoot down all the ISIS aircraft... ).
If things kicked off this would have to be destroyed early days by the B2 Spirits and F22s, or we could see a lot of NATO jets taken down.

It's like Manstein said in WW2 "on day one we take a million prisoners, and day 2 and day 3 another 2 million, after 1 week we surrender because we can't feed them all"

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

Appreciate that but with Nato, not sure we have a choice. Isn't the ethos that an attack on one member is an attack on all members.

I don't think we will honour that if Turkey and Russia kick off.

 

[Insel affe]

Appreciate that but with Nato, not sure we have a choice. Isn't the ethos that an attack on one member is an attack on all members.

I think they may find that we may not come rushing to their call for help on this occasion....

 

[The Antikythera Mechanism]

Putin's macho posturing is mainly about his popularity ratings with the Russian people. He's a bully and a gangster, as are most oligarchs, but he's not afraid to make his moves in a global poker game where the stakes are very high indeed. The situation, now, is very different to the pre 1989 cold war days, due to the capitlisation of the Russian economy and its dependency on trade with Europe and the rest of the world. What is happening now is mainly willy waving between Nato and Russia, with little thought for the unfortunate millions caught up in this senseless mess.

 

[alfredmizen]

Wrong, they are part of NATO because they have a long and threatening border with Russia....no other reason.

They don't actually share any border at all with Russia.Now you could argue that NATO wanted to have a naval presence in the Black Sea , and you could argue that they shared a border with 3 old soviet states of Armenia,Azerbaijan and Georgia , but that border isn't very long either, as for threatening, I think that's neither here nor there.

 

[alfredmizen]

This. Russian military capability is severely depleted. Out of date old crap. If their jets can't evade Turkish missiles I don't think that we should be that worried.

i take it you're an expert on air to air and surface to air missile technology then ?

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

i take it you're an expert on air to air and surface to air missile technology then ?

No. But I am a realist. Russia is a busted flush.

If they're waging war against civilian airliners they're fantastic. I don't reckon they are up to a shooting war with NATO.

 

[nicko31]

Why couldn't the Turks just got them on missile lock, it worked in Top Gun...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvFc0EPRSI4

 

[alfredmizen]

No. But I am a realist. Russia is a busted flush.

If they're waging war against civilian airliners they're fantastic. I don't reckon they are up to a shooting war with NATO.

Correct , from what I understand they're not, it was your comment on Turkish missiles I was laughing at, they have some very up to date kit.

 

[Tubby-McFat-Fuc]

REading this thread is starting make me think I should cancel my holiday in Syria next year. Sounds a little bit risky over there at the moment.

 

[scamander]

someone mentioned oil a while back - it's worth considering how a pipeline may have been a major factor in the whole situation developing. This article dates to 2013 and is quite prescient.
http://ftmdaily.com/what-jerry-thinks/whysyria/