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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,454
Well yes. For exactly the same reason. I’m hoping when the F16s arrive they can have some impact but currently the Russian aircraft can launch their guide bombs way out of range of air defence. These bombs are massive, very accurate and they have loads of them.
How many have they got?
 


















hampshirebrightonboy

Well-known member
Sep 3, 2011
1,038
In the space of 3 posts, your assessment of the number of Russian glide bombs went from 'loads', to no idea, and then to 'limitless'.

All I asked was 'how many have they got?'.
Why do you think I would know?

They are basically dumb bombs that they have built up the stocks of for decades - since 1945. How the hell would I know how many other than must be a very large number.
They have to attach wings and need western/chinese tech for the GPS so that will limit the amount that can be provided but so far this year they have used 3,500.

According to the FT they are turning the tide of the war in Russia's favour and at the moment the Ukrainians have no answer to them and they are devastating.


I love Ben Hodges but he is generally over optimistic. In early 2023 he predicted Crimea would be taken by the end of the year.

You would like to think that with the combined ingenuity of the allies an answer can be found - but a big concern
 




SeagullinExile

Well-known member
Sep 10, 2010
6,207
London
Well yes. For exactly the same reason. I’m hoping when the F16s arrive they can have some impact but currently the Russian aircraft can launch their guide bombs way out of range of air defence. These bombs are massive, very accurate and they have loads of them.
Not strictly accurate when you say way out of range. Ukraine does have the Patriot missile defence system deployed, just not enough of them. The added wings enable the FAB 500’s to be deployed from 70km out, as opposed to 40km. The Patriot has a range of 160km. The sneaky Russians still have to be careful.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,454
Why do you think I would know?

They are basically dumb bombs that they have built up the stocks of for decades - since 1945. How the hell would I know how many other than must be a very large number.
They have to attach wings and need western/chinese tech for the GPS so that will limit the amount that can be provided but so far this year they have used 3,500.

According to the FT they are turning the tide of the war in Russia's favour and at the moment the Ukrainians have no answer to them and they are devastating.


I love Ben Hodges but he is generally over optimistic. In early 2023 he predicted Crimea would be taken by the end of the year.

You would like to think that with the combined ingenuity of the allies an answer can be found - but a big concern
I didn't think you would know. I thought you wouldn't know. I asked you how many has Russia got, because when arguing that Ben Hodges and Paul Niland are too optimistic, you claimed that Russia has loads of glide bombs, which you later upgraded to 'limitless'.

You now claim that Russia must have a very large number of them. Why do you claim Russia must have a very large number of glide bombs in the same sentence as 'How the hell would I know how many'?
 


Nobby

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2007
2,905
There are a few optimistic posts on here.
Maybe a bit over optimistic. Completely understandable as we all desire the same thing.
But as an example. That article talks about the population of towns retaken and about to be taken - Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar.
And how the original population of each town taken is less than the last one. It uses this as some sort of positive!
Those first two towns are on major supply routes. Nothing positive about losing them.
I have a friend whose home town is Chasiv Yar. It’s been pummeled into oblivion. His old home, his old school, the parks where he used to play. Bomb craters now.

I just don’t see how Russia gets kicked out currently. No amount of positive writing or arguing about the exact number of glide bombs wins back that territory

The US is a shambles and Europe divided about how much aid to stump up.
Sorry, but I just can’t see much positive out there at the moment. Not one politician in the West with any guts - always going to be worried about where their next votes are coming from.
Something Russia, Iran. China and North Korea don’t have to worry about.
😨
 




fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
1,792
in a house
There are a few optimistic posts on here.
Maybe a bit over optimistic. Completely understandable as we all desire the same thing.
But as an example. That article talks about the population of towns retaken and about to be taken - Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar.
And how the original population of each town taken is less than the last one. It uses this as some sort of positive!
Those first two towns are on major supply routes. Nothing positive about losing them.
I have a friend whose home town is Chasiv Yar. It’s been pummeled into oblivion. His old home, his old school, the parks where he used to play. Bomb craters now.

I just don’t see how Russia gets kicked out currently. No amount of positive writing or arguing about the exact number of glide bombs wins back that territory

The US is a shambles and Europe divided about how much aid to stump up.
Sorry, but I just can’t see much positive out there at the moment. Not one politician in the West with any guts - always going to be worried about where their next votes are coming from.
Something Russia, Iran. China and North Korea don’t have to worry about.
😨

NATO stepping up to the plate and agreeing to supply more air defence systems. Don't say how many but still a positive.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,454


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,652
Wiltshire
Dropping a bomb, perhaps a glide bomb, on innocent Ukrainian civilians now comes with increased risk:

Budanov said that knocking out that bomber was done after very detailed planning and waiting for the right moment 👍.
Given the resources, Ukraine are patient and clinical.
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,454
Budanov said that knocking out that bomber was done after very detailed planning and waiting for the right moment 👍.
Given the resources, Ukraine are patient and clinical.
Did you see that Russia claims the plane crashed, and was not shot down by Ukrainian forces?

Are we safe to assume that the new danger to the Russian bomber crews is not being communicated to them?

(I was going to say, they don't even have the chance to talk to a Russian Orthodox priest before they meet their maker. A rabbit hole took me to Russian Orthodox bishop
Kirill, Patriarch of Moscow. In 2006, Forbes put his wealth at $4 billion, while a Novaya Gazeta article in 2019, estimated his wealth between $4 billion and $8 billion.)
 
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peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,378
Too optimistic I’m afraid. Russia has started to gain ground due to the glide bombs that are deviating Ukrainian defences. There is no mention of how to mitigate this threat.
Of course there is and the article goes in part to addressing the now and the near future.

Yes, glidebombs are a present problem to Ukraine trench positions and have been for the past weeks, why? Russia has always had them

Because they're air launched and Ukraine, starved of air defence and anti aircraft systems hasn't had any ability of late to stop Russian aircraft moving freely over front line, where they have had almost total superiority due to delays in US aid agreement.

Not only is that going to change but with the intro of far technologically superior F16 with long range strike capability, I feel confident that balance will dramatically turn soon in Ukraine favour, the glide bombs will fall today, they won't soon when Russian aircraft will be effectively grounded again.
 




fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
1,792
in a house
Dropping a bomb, perhaps a glide bomb, on innocent Ukrainian civilians now comes with increased risk:

Saw a video of it being shot down a few days ago but no other verification or posting elsewhere so didn't post it. Glad to see it now confirmed.
Bit of a concern the UK MOD are handling the Ukrainian arms fund and only spent half of it. Appreciate the need to check out suppliers but their record on procurement is crap.
 




peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,378
Did you see that Russia claims the plane crashed, and was not shot down by Ukrainian forces?

Are we safe to assume that the new danger to the Russian bomber crews is not being communicated to them?

(I was going to say, they don't even have the chance to talk to a Russian Orthodox priest before they meet their maker. A rabbit hole took me to Russian Orthodox bishop
Kirill, Patriarch of Moscow. In 2006, Forbes put his wealth at $4 billion, while a Novaya Gazeta article in 2019, estimated his wealth between $4 billion and $8 billion.)
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,454
Saw a video of it being shot down a few days ago but no other verification or posting elsewhere so didn't post it. Glad to see it now confirmed.
Bit of a concern the UK MOD are handling the Ukrainian arms fund and only spent half of it. Appreciate the need to check out suppliers but their record on procurement is crap.
'An intelligence source told Reuters the plane was hit with a modified S-200 Soviet-era long-range surface-to-air missile system.'

It is fitting that the bomber, carrying an air-to-surface Soviet-era reworked glide bomb (if true), was shot down with a reworked Soviet-era surface-to-air missile system.

There's a pleasing symmetry to it.
 


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