[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[thejackal]

Don't be fooled by the bot narrative that Russia is winning. This Youtube video by Jake Broe, details:

1. From 0:00 - 9:00 Double takedown of 2 Russian command and control surveillance planes. Russian explanation is......friendly fire. Russia thinks this is more preferable than admitting Ukraine shot them down.
2. From 9:00 onwards, footage of the utilities industry collapsing across Russia, due to the engineers having been mobilised. Watch the videos. 'It is horrifyingly cold'.
3. Take care - there is another (linked) video detailing extreme abuse of Russian troops at gunpoint, by Russian troops.

With respect, the title of that video is Russia Lost Their Most Important Airplane (ha ha ha) and you consider it to be a serious source?!

 

[Eeyore]

Don't be fooled by the bot narrative that Russia is winning. This Youtube video by Jake Broe, details:

1. From 0:00 - 9:00 Double takedown of 2 Russian command and control surveillance planes. Russian explanation is......friendly fire. Russia thinks this is more preferable than admitting Ukraine shot them down.
2. From 9:00 onwards, footage of the utilities industry collapsing across Russia, due to the engineers having been mobilised. Watch the videos. 'It is horrifyingly cold'.
3. Take care - there is another (linked) video detailing extreme abuse of Russian troops at gunpoint, by Russian troops.

It's just a podcast by a random bloke on the internet.

I don't follow any of it. All I've seen is the lines not moving in the last year and Ukraine constantly asking for Western cash.

It's not about 'winners' because there are no winners. But what is clearly happening is Ukrainian forces are struggling to regain any further territory and have been doing so for a long time. They keep asking for money.

I cannot see Russia being expelled. It will roll on and on. Until there is an agreement.

That will disappoint those sitting at home watching it like it's a video game they bought on Amazon.

 

[Zeberdi]

The problem is the appetite for sending more money and arms to Ukraine is waning, and Zelensky and his generals know it.

This is the beginning of the end, not the end of the beginning.

I agree with your first sentence - that’s been the case for months.

But if you are going to paraphrase Churchill at least don’t use it in reference to a supposed imminent victory by a Russian dictator, he’d would roll about in his grave!

 

[thejackal]

I agree with your first sentence - that’s been the case for months.

But if you are going to paraphrase Churchill at least don’t use it in reference to a supposed imminent victory by a Russian dictator, he’d would roll about in his grave!

My bad - I didn't know that was Churchill!

 

[Eric the meek]

With respect, the title of that video is Russia Lost Their Most Important Airplane (ha ha ha) and you consider it to be a serious source?!

And that is the sum total of your response, three minutes after I posted it. Shoot the messenger, and don't watch the video.

Ukraine is absolutely cock-a-hoop about bringing down the A-50. It's Russia's early warning radar.

'The friendly fire version is thrown as the least evil.
'The Kremlin cannot allow the Russians to think about Ukraine's ability to shoot down scarce airplanes deep behind the front lines'.

 

[Zeberdi]

My bad - I didn't know that was Churchill!

 

[sparkie]

What I find most depressing is reading silly comments like this one.

You must have a very pretty tenuous grip on reality if you can look upon this conflict as if it were some sort of game.

Or maybe you're just a WUM on a fishing expedition?

The sad truth, according to most impartial commentators, is that Ukraine has essentially lost the war (they have literally run out of men of fighting age) and now it's just a question of how to make peace.

Zelensky went to Davos just a few days ago but instead of his usual appeal for weaponry, has all but conceded the defeat, putting forward what's described as the Ukranian peace plan.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/world/europe/ukraine-zelensky-davos-switzerland-peace.html

The good old New York Times at it again. They absolutely love their pro-kremlin narrative.

 

[thejackal]

And that is the sum total of your response, three minutes after I posted it. Shoot the messenger, and don't watch the video.

Ukraine is absolutely cock-a-hoop about bringing down the A-50. It's Russia's early warning radar.

'The friendly fire version is thrown as the least evil.
'The Kremlin cannot allow the Russians to think about Ukraine's ability to shoot down scarce airplanes deep behind the front lines'.

I'm sorry, I gave it a quick look and I may watch a bit more but it has a bunch of red flags tbh, e.g.:

• from the title of the video, he has a clear bias;
• the title also suggests that he is not a serious commentator;
• his first source is the Ukrainian Military's twatter feed;
• his second source is the Kyiv Post, a pro-western English language Ukrainian paper.

I'm not saying everything in the video will be bollocks but as a source he doesn't look very reliable or impartial.

 

[thejackal]

The good old New York Times at it again. They absolutely love their pro-kremlin narrative.

Haha yeah the same NYT that won a Pulitzer for its coverage of Russia-gate, now totally discredited.

 

[Curious Orange]

The mutterings I've heard on the news are more about a concern over wider conflict. Letting Putin win is only going to make that more likely in my opinion.

BBC News - Ukraine war: Russian oil depot hit in Ukrainian drone attack

Ukraine war: Russian oil depot hit in Ukrainian drone attack

Fire breaks out over a large area in the Bryansk region, a day after another oil facility is targeted.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[raymondo]

You just don't want to accept that Russia may win this. That looks to me like an emotional response, not a logical one.

Yeah I will dig out some articles to back up my assertions when I've finished work.

Do you have any to back up yours?

Talking purely for myself, I do sometimes make emotional responses on this thread, but I also make many logical ones.
When one has a Ukrainian wife, in-laws living under occupation, cousins, nephews and good friends whose lives have been turned upside down... it's inevitable that I'll sometimes respond emotionally, unapologetically.

Yes, Ukraine may lose much of the occupied territory (in this current conflict) and, personally, I always thought it possible that they may not recover Crimea and Donbas. But if and until that's settled in this conflict (remember, it's never the end of history) I shall continue to seek out positive articles and give some emotional responses to what I read.
And I shall cheer every success they have in destroying Russian military and infrastructure.

 

[thejackal]

2 good articles on Zelensky and the conflict with his generals:

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-talks-russians/

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91182

 

[Curious Orange]

All this Russia-gate hoax nonsense is quite interesting, as the Mueller and Durham reports were both quite clear in their findings... and both have been misrepresented.

Worth a read if you're bored:

https://www.cato.org/commentary/no-russiagate-wasnt-hoax-team-trump-claims-it-was#

 

[Triggaaar]

That's the point I'm making. It's a stalemate. And it's all becoming very Western Front.

Yes it is a stalemate, neither side are winning and neither are losing.

But Russia is in Ukrainian territory and has no intention of budging. So ultimately, there will end up being an agreement

Is that what happened on the Western Front? No. Stalemate now does not mean it'll never change.

or this will just roll on and on with Ukraine constantly having to come cap in hand to keep the status quo.

Ukraine will continue to need help, like we did in WW2. If we don't help them and Russia succeed, it'll cost us more.

 

[Sirnormangall]

The mutterings I've heard on the news are more about a concern over wider conflict. Letting Putin win is only going to make that more likely in my opinion.

BBC News - Ukraine war: Russian oil depot hit in Ukrainian drone attack

Ukraine war: Russian oil depot hit in Ukrainian drone attack

Fire breaks out over a large area in the Bryansk region, a day after another oil facility is targeted.

www.bbc.co.uk

CNN reporting Ukrainian drone attacks near St Petersburg- unsuccessful apparently but interesting again that Ukraine is able to take the war a long way into Russia.

 

[Eric the meek]

I'm sorry, I gave it a quick look and I may watch a bit more but it has a bunch of red flags tbh, e.g.:

• from the title of the video, he has a clear bias;
• the title also suggests that he is not a serious commentator;
• his first source is the Ukrainian Military's twatter feed;
• his second source is the Kyiv Post, a pro-western English language Ukrainian paper.

I'm not saying everything in the video will be bollocks but as a source he doesn't look very reliable or impartial.

Too late to pick holes in it now. The damage is done. Besides the plane has joined the Russian Black Sea fleet. Why do you find it so difficult to accept this?

Anyway, here's the BBC report on the oil loading terminal at St. Petersburg, and the gunpowder factory at Tambov, two events you told us you found depressing.

Ukraine war: Russian oil depot hit in Ukrainian drone attack

Fire breaks out over a large area in the Bryansk region, a day after another oil facility is targeted.

www.bbc.co.uk

Do you think these events are linked to the spy plane going down?

Ukraine is up to something. An oil loading terminal to keep the pressure on the collapsing utility industries? You will only know about these things if you read the evidence of course. The gunpowder factory at Tambov is an interesting one. Tambov is on the way to the southern military hub of Rostov-on-Don, which supplies the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

There is a stalemate on the ground. But Ukraine is bypassing the stalemate and taking the war deep inside Russia. At the moment, it is going for infrastructure and military targets. Last winter, Ukraine was freezing. This winter, it's Russia.

 

[Triggaaar]

You just don't want to accept that Russia may win this.

Not at all, I know that Russia could win - that is one of the possibilities - just as Ukraine could. But Russia don't look like winning any time soon and you're posting that Ukraine are accepting defeat, which is simply not true.

Yeah I will dig out some articles to back up my assertions when I've finished work.

Please make sure they're from somewhere like the NYT (which you quoted) or BBC etc. If Ukraine are accepting defeat, I imagine it'll be their lead story.

Do you have any to back up yours?

I haven't really made any assertions - this war has been going on for 2 years and not much is happening at the moment. You're saying that Ukraine are accepting defeat - that needs backing up with evidence. I'm not making any such claims - I'm not claiming that Russia are on the brink of defeat.

 

[thejackal]

Here's the BBC article on the

Too late to pick holes in it now. The damage is done. Besides the plane has joined the Russian Black Sea fleet. Why do you find it so difficult to accept this?

Anyway, here's the BBC report on the oil loading terminal at St. Petersburg, and the gunpowder factory at Tambov, two events you told us you found depressing.

Ukraine war: Russian oil depot hit in Ukrainian drone attack

Fire breaks out over a large area in the Bryansk region, a day after another oil facility is targeted.

www.bbc.co.uk

Do you think these events are linked to the spy plane going down?

Ukraine is up to something. An oil loading terminal to keep the pressure on the collapsing utility industries? You will only know about these things if you read the evidence of course. The gunpowder factory at Tambov is an interesting one. Tambov is on the way to the southern military hub of Rostov-on-Don, which supplies the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

There is a stalemate on the ground. But Ukraine is bypassing the stalemate and taking the war deep inside Russia. At the moment, it is going for infrastructure and military targets. Last winter, Ukraine was freezing. This winter, it's Russia.

Eh? What damage are you referring to? I'm not contesting that the plane was brought down, just stating that your source is poor quality.

 

[thejackal]

Not at all, I know that Russia could win - that is one of the possibilities - just as Ukraine could. But Russia don't look like winning any time soon and you're posting that Ukraine are accepting defeat, which is simply not true.




Please make sure they're from somewhere like the NYT (which you quoted) or BBC etc. If Ukraine are accepting defeat, I imagine it'll be their lead story.


I haven't really made any assertions - this war has been going on for 2 years and not much is happening at the moment. You're saying that Ukraine are accepting defeat - that needs backing up with evidence. I'm not making any such claims - I'm not claiming that Russia are on the brink of defeat.

I never said that anyone had explicitly accepted defeat. In fact, I said that they hadn't. What I said was that most impartial commentators are now saying it openly. I'm not sure the NYT falls into the category of impartial, that's a matter for debate.

As far as the assertion goes, I think you only have to look at objectives v outcomes, and the situation on the ground now.

Russia's objective was to protect the Russian-speaking population of Eastern Ukraine whilst cementing control over its black sea ports, all of which it has done. Ukraine's objective was to repel the Russian forces and take back all of the territory it had lost since 2014, none of which has happened.

Clearly, by anyone's measure, the Russians have met their objectives and the Ukrainians have not met theirs.

You may not be happy about this, and things may indeed change, but it is the reality on the ground, so to speak.

 

[Eric the meek]

Eh? What damage are you referring to? I'm not contesting that the plane was brought down, just stating that your source is poor quality.

Do I detect backpedalling? I posted a video by a Youtuber, and your kneejerk reaction was to trash it. You shot the messenger. You didn't watch it.

Meanwhile, Ukraine had already claimed responsibility for shooting the plane down. Russia has admitted it got shot down, but blamed 'friendly fire'.
It thinks incompetence is preferable to letting it be known that Ukraine has the ability to bring down a command and control plane. Russia is peddling disinformation to Russians again. And those Russians are freezing in their apartment blocks, because all the blokes who can fix the water leaks and the boiler failures, have been mobilised to the front lines.