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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)











fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
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in a house


Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,184
Recently finished reading an interesting book - the Russian Conundrum- by Mikhail Khodorkorvsky. Difficult to know how much of it to believe or accept given he’s a former oligarch, albeit someone who fell out with Putin and was jailed for 10 years. As you’d expect from someone who had his business taken away from him, he says a lot about Russia being a mafia state.
Interesting views on the state brainwashing of Russian citizens: the self-image of the majority is that they are peaceful and well-intentioned people, but scared of NATO creeping towards them. Nostalgic for past glory and strength of the Soviet Union. They are the “TV population” who pretty much believe everything they are fed on TV (except statistics - but that’s of little concern because they feel all governments publish misleading stats). But there’s a growing (younger) minority, the “Internet population” who, despite government controls, receive information from outside Russia ( including from many friends and family who left the country).
His view on sanctions: need to be better targeted - those that affect ordinary citizens simply make them resentful of the west and plays into the hands of the propaganda machine.
His view on how it will end: don’t enter peace talks with Putin ( he’d see it as a victory and will do it again); he willl eventually be overthrown due to a groundswell of public opinion - that will take time but it will be difficult to silence the growing number of distraught mothers who’ve lost their sons.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,391
Wiltshire
Excerpt from Guardian feed this morning:

"On Friday, the US said arms shipments from North Korea to Russia were under way, with 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions arriving in recent weeks. Pyongyang was seeking a range of military assistance from Russia in return, including advanced technologies, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters."
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
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Aug 24, 2020
7,153
Excerpt from Guardian feed this morning:

"On Friday, the US said arms shipments from North Korea to Russia were under way, with 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions arriving in recent weeks. Pyongyang was seeking a range of military assistance from Russia in return, including advanced technologies, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters."
That would appear to be very good intelligence from the US, presumably from remote sensing. But why would they broadcast it?

Is it a power-play*? It might be that the US just wants Russia to know they are being watched. And they might have added a bit of detail, to make sure the Russians get the message.

How do they know the weapons and munitions are in 1000 containers? Because they will have counted them. And they've let the Russians know that they know. The implication is that the US knows about them and knows the scale of the operation. The problem for Russia is 'does the US know where the containers are and even what is in them'?

*I recall Vladimir Solovyov, reading from screen prompts on Russian state TV early on in the invasion, asking why couldn't Russia build its own satellites to compete with western ones. The irony that sanctions have prevented global standard satellite technology from reaching Russia, evidently did not appear even as a blip on his radar.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,153
Full marks to Olaf Scholz. You don't say that very often do you?

But what he has done is rebuke Putin as 'cynical' over the Russian president's comments on civilian casualties. Quite right too.

'German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has sharply rebuked Russian president, Vladimir Putin, over his “cynical” comments about civilian casualties.

In the German parliament on Thursday, Scholz said: “It makes me more than furious to hear the Russian president repeatedly warning that there could be civilian casualties from an armed conflict,” referring to Putin’s comments about the Israel-Hamas war that erupted after Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October.

“It doesn’t get more cynical than that,” Scholz said, highlighting that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine launched in February 2022 has caused a significant number of civilian casualties.

Although Russia has repeatedly claimed that what it calls its “special military operation” does not target civilians, the UN has recorded 22,468 casualties, including 7,649 people killed in territory controlled by the Kyiv government since the invasion began.

Scholz also said in parliament earlier that Europe must still provide aid and financial stability for Ukraine, but that it was not a long-term solution.
 




Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,184
That would appear to be very good intelligence from the US, presumably from remote sensing. But why would they broadcast it?

Is it a power-play*? It might be that the US just wants Russia to know they are being watched. And they might have added a bit of detail, to make sure the Russians get the message.

How do they know the weapons and munitions are in 1000 containers? Because they will have counted them. And they've let the Russians know that they know. The implication is that the US knows about them and knows the scale of the operation. The problem for Russia is 'does the US know where the containers are and even what is in them'?

*I recall Vladimir Solovyov, reading from screen prompts on Russian state TV early on in the invasion, asking why couldn't Russia build its own satellites to compete with western ones. The irony that sanctions have prevented global standard satellite technology from reaching Russia, evidently did not appear even as a blip on his radar.
Yes a power play. The US is telling Russia (and the world) that it knows what Russia and N Korea are doing. It gives another example too ( if any is needed) that N Korea continues to be a pariah state. I suppose Russia’s PR machine will say that in getting arms from other countries they’re doing no more than what Ukraine is doing.
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,215
Goldstone
Full marks to Olaf Scholz. You don't say that very often do you?

But what he has done is rebuke Putin as 'cynical' over the Russian president's comments on civilian casualties. Quite right too.

'German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has sharply rebuked Russian president, Vladimir Putin, over his “cynical” comments about civilian casualties.

In the German parliament on Thursday, Scholz said: “It makes me more than furious to hear the Russian president repeatedly warning that there could be civilian casualties from an armed conflict,” referring to Putin’s comments about the Israel-Hamas war that erupted after Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October.

“It doesn’t get more cynical than that,” Scholz said, highlighting that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine launched in February 2022 has caused a significant number of civilian casualties.

Although Russia has repeatedly claimed that what it calls its “special military operation” does not target civilians, the UN has recorded 22,468 casualties, including 7,649 people killed in territory controlled by the Kyiv government since the invasion began.

Scholz also said in parliament earlier that Europe must still provide aid and financial stability for Ukraine, but that it was not a long-term solution.

'Cynical' is a polite way of putting it. I am of course concerned about what's happening in Israel and Palestine, but the invasion of Ukraine is causing so many more innocent casualties and is a bigger concern to world peace. Russia helping N.Korea with weapons is just one bad consequence of an awful and unnecessary war. Slava Ukraine!
 


A1X

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Sep 1, 2017
20,562
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Excerpt from Guardian feed this morning:

"On Friday, the US said arms shipments from North Korea to Russia were under way, with 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions arriving in recent weeks. Pyongyang was seeking a range of military assistance from Russia in return, including advanced technologies, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters."
To be fair, if it’s North Korean, it’s probably only useful for chucking in some sort of trebuchet and lobbing at the Ukrainians, it’s not much more dangerous than that. Except maybe to the Russians…
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
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Aug 24, 2020
7,153
To be fair, if it’s North Korean, it’s probably only useful for chucking in some sort of trebuchet and lobbing at the Ukrainians, it’s not much more dangerous than that. Except maybe to the Russians…
You may well be correct, but in the absence of any real evidence on the content of the N Korean containers, we will never quite know for sure, will we?

So you have to plan for the best, but prepare for the worst. Or something like that. As a general principle, I would counsel against downgrading your enemy's abilities. There is a danger that you are no longer being objective.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,391
Wiltshire
To be fair, if it’s North Korean, it’s probably only useful for chucking in some sort of trebuchet and lobbing at the Ukrainians, it’s not much more dangerous than that. Except maybe to the Russians…
Some of it (whatever 'it' is) may well be poor quality, or defective,as you suggest. Then again, if there's enough of it, it could prove very useful to Russia.
 


Albion 4ever

Active member
Feb 26, 2009
593
Is it too easy to say that if the USA knows there are arms shipments then why not attack it and take it out before it gets there? A bit of sabotage perhaps?
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,153
Is it too easy to say that if the USA knows there are arms shipments then why not attack it and take it out before it gets there? A bit of sabotage perhaps?
I'm no military strategist or tactician, but I would have thought the exact opposite is indicated. Wait as long as possible. That way, the Russians will reveal their favoured supply routes, and reveal exactly what weapons are going where, thereby inadvertently betraying their equipment shortages. This would be valuable near real-time intelligence to the Ukrainian front line.
 






Carlos BC

Well-known member
May 10, 2019
549
MP of Likud, Netanyahu party, goes on Russia Today and let's rip!

Of course nobody in Russia would be allowed to see this, but interesting


That is interesting. I guess the help goes via Iran and the Israelis will have been aware of this for a long time. I imagine Israel may be more willing to use some underhand tactics than other Western Governments. It's going to take some years to unwind but I hope Russia gets what it deserves, or certainly the current regime. Such a shame though, perhaps I was naive but there seemed such hope when the Berlin wall came down. But most of the old Soviet Union has moved on considerably so that is a positive!
 




A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,562
Deepest, darkest Sussex
MP of Likud, Netanyahu party, goes on Russia Today and let's rip!

Of course nobody in Russia would be allowed to see this, but interesting


It’s interesting that at no point does the RT presenter attempt to claim they’re not just Russian propaganda, which they’ve previously done
 




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