[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[beorhthelm]

OK take as is, but could be significant!

Mrs, follows a few Urkrainian and Russian sources that have been reliable and one of those is a Russian in Moscow Called Valery Solovey.

Valery Solovei - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

She says he doesn't speak that often but everytime he has, he's been totally accurate previously (about stuff in Kremlin) he definitely has contacts at the very top of Kremlin administration, and according to the other half, when he's been pressed of why he himself has not been killed (lives in Moscow) for spilling stuff previously, his answer is, "of course its not impossible for me to be killed, but let's say I have protections at the very very top, so I don't think I will, while not impossible".

My wife thinks (more hunch) it may be Putins right hand man Nikolai Patruschev that protect him, that is speculation.

Anyway he's just published a video in Russian (not sure how well may translate into English but there is subtitles in english with auto translate?)



And in it he says that for 100% the real Putin did die a few days ago, he names the date as Thursday 26th October at time around 8-9pm and his corpse is in a refrigerated morgue at his residence in Valdai.

That one of his doppelgangers is doing photo ops for TV etc and there's a big power struggle going on behind the scenes of who will assume control. Patruschev is pushing his son and has backing of FSB, but other parties also positioning and already a few associated deaths.

That it will take around 2 months until resolved and once transition resolved and public messaging finalised, their population will then be made aware. In meantime denials.

That his mistress Kabeyeva and his 3 kids with her will get safe passage to UAE and others will use transition period to escape.

That most want to end war in Ukraine but they won't without getting something back, like formalised keeping of Crimea (which probably wouldn't be accepted by Ukraine public).

Patruschev is even more an anti West, nato under every bed and around every corner, still living in cold war, than Putin..He wants to expand war, most others want out.

So take it all as the expressed opinion of Valery Solovey, definitely connected, previously right but this time?

so this chap who claims protection of some senior figure, makes a claim that said senior figure is in a secret power struggle to sieze power in Russia because Putin has died. seems a bit counter intuitive story, why let it out?

 

[Triggaaar]

I just cant believe that you can find a body double 100% like the original Putin. If you study him for any length of time, you would surely see some differences. Presumably he doesn't have a twin.

1) No you can't get a body double that accurate
2) You can get a reasonably close one, who becomes very close with plastic surgery
3) You don't get the chance to study them for any length of time because they show you poor images from camera angles of their choosing

 

[portslade seagull]

Putin getting out of dodge b4 he is strung up. Don't believe for 1 second he has gone. Probably some poor body double sacrificed

 

[Eric the meek]

OK take as is, but could be significant!

Mrs, follows a few Urkrainian and Russian sources that have been reliable and one of those is a Russian in Moscow Called Valery Solovey.

Valery Solovei - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

She says he doesn't speak that often but everytime he has, he's been totally accurate previously (about stuff in Kremlin) he definitely has contacts at the very top of Kremlin administration, and according to the other half, when he's been pressed of why he himself has not been killed (lives in Moscow) for spilling stuff previously, his answer is, "of course its not impossible for me to be killed, but let's say I have protections at the very very top, so I don't think I will, while not impossible".

My wife thinks (more hunch) it may be Putins right hand man Nikolai Patruschev that protect him, that is speculation.

Anyway he's just published a video in Russian (not sure how well may translate into English but there is subtitles in english with auto translate?)



And in it he says that for 100% the real Putin did die a few days ago, he names the date as Thursday 26th October at time around 8-9pm and his corpse is in a refrigerated morgue at his residence in Valdai.

That one of his doppelgangers is doing photo ops for TV etc and there's a big power struggle going on behind the scenes of who will assume control. Patruschev is pushing his son and has backing of FSB, but other parties also positioning and already a few associated deaths.

That it will take around 2 months until resolved and once transition resolved and public messaging finalised, their population will then be made aware. In meantime denials.

That his mistress Kabeyeva and his 3 kids with her will get safe passage to UAE and others will use transition period to escape.

That most want to end war in Ukraine but they won't without getting something back, like formalised keeping of Crimea (which probably wouldn't be accepted by Ukraine public).

Patruschev is even more an anti West, nato under every bed and around every corner, still living in cold war, than Putin..He wants to expand war, most others want out.

So take it all as the expressed opinion of Valery Solovey, definitely connected, previously right but this time?

A few observations if I may.

1. There's a lot of detail in that interview. A lot. (Suggesting it is true).
2. The interviewee seems very forthcoming, for a Russian, although he still talks in riddles, allegories. Perhaps that is just his way, but at several points, he does seem to be enjoying being in the limelight.
3. The detail around Putin's last conversation with Netanyahu, a heightened call before the alleged heart attack, is the kind of detail which rings true. Doesn't mean to say it is of course. These are Russians we are dealing with.
4. The predicted timeline is interesting. Two months until it is announced officially. Use of a double in the meantime. Then a crisis of 3-4, maybe 6 months, with some unrest in the Caucasus. All the while, Russia is far too busy to be interested in Ukraine....
5. @peterward, this is seriously good pre-match entertainment.

 

[raymondo]

There is, I've seen it and even posted on here before. It's in the ear lobes, very different between real and dummy.

I expect he's having his lobes sculpted by Moscow's finest plastic surgeon as we speak. I also seem to remember he was handy drawing a cartoon on a whiteboard during during some visit.

 

[sparkie]

300,000 Russian invaders now dead.

 

[raymondo]

300,000 Russian invaders now dead.

It's a good milestone, plus their extraordinary hardware losses.
Here's to the next 300,000

 

[raymondo]

Aahh yes...such a caring man...

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Aahh yes...such a caring man...

When that fella feels he can take some moral high ground you know you have problems

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

But seriously where are we here?

Start of November, if it's pissing down here, I'll guess it's been pissing down in Ukraine. Still only small sections of land have been recovered. Russians attacking heavily in the East. Whether we like it or not, the world is talking about a war somewhere else.

Yes, more Russian men and firepower have been lost, yes, Crimea looks increasingly hard to defend, yes, Russians have had awful naval losses.

But will Putin be quietly please with the way this year has gone? Prighozin dealt with, Western arms unable to make much progress, he'll now look to present himself as a stateman on the Israel situation.

Frozen lines absolutely suit Russia. They will spend the winter laying new lines of defences and digging new lines of trenches.

How can Ukraine get their lands back now?

 

[sparkie]

But seriously where are we here?

Start of November, if it's pissing down here, I'll guess it's been pissing down in Ukraine. Still only small sections of land have been recovered. Russians attacking heavily in the East. Whether we like it or not, the world is talking about a war somewhere else.

Yes, more Russian men and firepower have been lost, yes, Crimea looks increasingly hard to defend, yes, Russians have had awful naval losses.

But will Putin be quietly please with the way this year has gone? Prighozin dealt with, Western arms unable to make much progress, he'll now look to present himself as a stateman on the Israel situation.

Frozen lines absolutely suit Russia. They will spend the winter laying new lines of defences and digging new lines of trenches.

How can Ukraine get their lands back now?

F16's getting closer by the day.

Expanding bridgeheads on the east bank of the dnipro river in Kherson.

Not all gloom and doom.

 

[sparkie]

Aahh yes...such a caring man...

That's a sick joke by the Butcher of Moscow.

 

[chickens]

But seriously where are we here?

Start of November, if it's pissing down here, I'll guess it's been pissing down in Ukraine. Still only small sections of land have been recovered. Russians attacking heavily in the East. Whether we like it or not, the world is talking about a war somewhere else.

Yes, more Russian men and firepower have been lost, yes, Crimea looks increasingly hard to defend, yes, Russians have had awful naval losses.

But will Putin be quietly please with the way this year has gone? Prighozin dealt with, Western arms unable to make much progress, he'll now look to present himself as a stateman on the Israel situation.

Frozen lines absolutely suit Russia. They will spend the winter laying new lines of defences and digging new lines of trenches.

How can Ukraine get their lands back now?

I think we all wish that Russia would turn tail and run, but that’s not a realistic proposition, especially if reports of them shooting their own retreating troops are accurate.

Progress is slow, the Russians are mining liberally as they go, and frankly the length of time it’s taken Ukraine’s allies to start providing the level of weaponry and munitions required, this year has largely been written off.

Despite that, Ukraine is making progress. Unless the West starts ramping up production and supply of arms to Ukraine, expect next year to be like this year. Slow progress through difficult heavily mined territory.

Russia have nothing in the tank, they’re not ceding ground deliberately. We’re learning the lesson we should have learnt from every war before this, they’re long, bloody and brutal, inflicting horrors and misery on innocent people.

Ukraine didn’t start this, but I firmly believe that bar the orange moron getting back into the White House, they are going to finish it.

 

[raymondo]

That's a sick joke by the Butcher of Moscow.

It is... and his supporters inside and outside Russia will lap it up sadly

 

[raymondo]

I think we all wish that Russia would turn tail and run, but that’s not a realistic proposition, especially if reports of them shooting their own retreating troops are accurate.

Progress is slow, the Russians are mining liberally as they go, and frankly the length of time it’s taken Ukraine’s allies to start providing the level of weaponry and munitions required, this year has largely been written off.

Despite that, Ukraine is making progress. Unless the West starts ramping up production and supply of arms to Ukraine, expect next year to be like this year. Slow progress through difficult heavily mined territory.

Russia have nothing in the tank, they’re not ceding ground deliberately. We’re learning the lesson we should have learnt from every war before this, they’re long, bloody and brutal, inflicting horrors and misery on innocent people.

Ukraine didn’t start this, but I firmly believe that bar the orange moron getting back into the White House, they are going to finish it.

Good summary... Russia indeed doesn't have much in the tank (including tanks). Well, they have hundreds 000s of conscripts for the meat grinder, and let's realise that is a problem for Ukraine.

I read a piece earlier this a.m. that Russia keep throwing waves of 'troops' at the Ukrainian defenders in Adviika (spelling? sorry). Ukraine are holding on and killing more than they lose....but there's a limit... they need more Western artillery.

If US support reduces (and if the orange head monster gets in then anything could happen) then Europe MUST take up the slack...or one day they'll have Russia on their borders...unbuffered by Ukraine.

And as @sparkie also said, it's not all doom and gloom by a long chalk. F16s are coming sometime.
My in-laws live 30kms west of Tokmak and, when the wind is from the east, hear shelling (probably in and out) there. That key town is under pressure, admittedly from a distance at the moment, but Ukraine is getting closer.

 

[Eric the meek]

'Russian warplanes 'dropping explosives' in civilian shipping lane'

Ukraine war latest: Russia 'concerned' control is slipping in parts of country, analysts suggest; Putin moving forces in east - 'new wave' predicted

Ukrainian officials expect to face a new wave of attacks on the eastern front, as Russia moves troops and equipment into the area. Meanwhile, a barrage of overnight strikes set fire to an oil refinery in Ukraine, while a railway junction was hit in Russian-occupied Donetsk.

news.sky.com

As an aside, I would have thought that Turkey is able to intercept these Russian warplanes. I would be interested to see if they do this to protect civilian shipping.

 

[Rugrat]

Ukraine didn’t start this, but I firmly believe that bar the orange moron getting back into the White House, they are going to finish it.

Of all the certainties in life, I'd have 'the orange moron' back in The White House as one of them

 

[chickens]

Of all the certainties in life, I'd have 'the orange moron' back in The White House as one of them

I’m cautiously optimistic that he’s had his day. When he went in first time he had the benefit of the doubt.

He couldn’t muster enough support for a second term, and he’s subsequently been moved outward onto a lot of his own/less mainstream platforms.

I don’t think anyone’s sitting on the fence about this guy now. They have their opinion. The more thoughtful Republicans will be considering what would be left post a second Trump term, and to be honest, he’s not got any saner or more honest in his time out of power.

 

[Mellotron]

I’m cautiously optimistic that he’s had his day. When he went in first time he had the benefit of the doubt.

He couldn’t muster enough support for a second term, and he’s subsequently been moved outward onto a lot of his own/less mainstream platforms.

I don’t think anyone’s sitting on the fence about this guy now. They have their opinion. The more thoughtful Republicans will be considering what would be left post a second Trump term, and to be honest, he’s not got any saner or more honest in his time out of power.

Agreed - I'm struggling to see any reason why he'd be MORE popular now than 3/4 years ago.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Of all the certainties in life, I'd have 'the orange moron' back in The White House as one of them

He would, you would think, have to be at liberty to beat Biden.