[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[The Fifth Column]

The 2nd world war was basically won on the eastern front. Yes, after France fell Britain survided the Blitz which was intended to to bring it to the peace table.
Hitler didn't want a war on 2 fronts, and that's effectively what happened when the USA joined in.
Yes, the USA, GB gave limited aid to Russia by arctic convoys, which sometimes came under attack by U boats, but was not that significant.
The Battle of Britain has been has been over played in the media, it was just considered as a Luftwaffe offensive in Germany.

You read a book once, was it the Ladybird big book about war? Or perhaps you visited the horrible histories website? Either way you appear absolutely clueless on anything to do with history and your unique and singular views are more suited to a primary school classroom than anything approaching serious debate. Give it up mate, you are clearly out of your depth. Someone hopefully will remove you from this thread to save you further embarrassment or derailing of the thread.

 

[peterward]

It's also not in Ukraine's interest to take him out at this time IMHO, he is (or he was) much more of a threat to Putin than to Ukraine.

 

[The Fifth Column]

That Wagner convoy will be wiped out with a couple of Russian airstrikes in 3...2...1 BOOM

 

[Eric the meek]

Interesting report on the BBC, supporting the widely held view that Putin had Prigozhin killed.

How Russia reacted after Prigozhin plane crash

After his failed rebellion, most Russians were probably surprised this hadn't happened sooner.

www.bbc.co.uk

It says that most Russians were far from shocked at the news. Perhaps ordinary Russians are not quite as green as we sometimes believe.

As for Putin, it looks like he didn't read the room.

 

[fly high]

Interesting report on the BBC, supporting the widely held view that Putin had Prigozhin killed.

How Russia reacted after Prigozhin plane crash

After his failed rebellion, most Russians were probably surprised this hadn't happened sooner.

www.bbc.co.uk

It says that most Russians were far from shocked at the news. Perhaps ordinary Russians are not quite as green as we sometimes believe.

As for Putin, it looks like he didn't read the room.

Has Putin read the room with any intelligence in the last 18 months.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I have to say, I just don't see a situation where Wagner fighters undertake a second "march for justice" to the Kremlin

While I do believe many were loyal to Proghozin (they were more than just mercenarys, there was a personality clut there) and there will be anger amongst Wagner and many ordinary troops and in the civilian population, the reality on the ground has changed.

The last time, they had the element of surprise, they had a leader in place who they followed. Crucially they had heavy weapons, they had tanks and personnel carriers. An assault on the Kremlin was plausible, so much so that Putin fled.

The question then is what happens to the remaining fighters now? Well undoubtedly, they will be offered contracts to fight in the regular army and sadly many will be incorporated there.

 

[peterward]

That Wagner convoy will be wiped out with a couple of Russian airstrikes in 3...2...1 BOOM

 

[peterward]

I have to say, I just don't see a situation where Wagner fighters undertake a second "march for justice" to the Kremlin

While I do believe many were loyal to Proghozin (they were more than just mercenarys, there was a personality clut there) and there will be anger amongst Wagner and many ordinary troops and in the civilian population, the reality on the ground has changed.

The last time, they had the element of surprise, they had a leader in place who they followed. Crucially they had heavy weapons, they had tanks and personnel carriers. An assault on the Kremlin was plausible, so much so that Putin fled.

The question then is what happens to the remaining fighters now? Well undoubtedly, they will be offered contracts to fight in the regular army and sadly many will be incorporated there.

Who knows how it might pan out, totally concur that however much anger is in Wagner and the nationalist movement (which includes loads that follow Girkin too), there's little realistic chance of a full on frontal assault of the kremlin any time soon.....

That said there's loads of special forces and others with strong ties and allegiances with Wagner, if they just stopped fighting that would have big implications, even well trained mercenaries with machine guns can cause instability and chaos inside Russia that drives cracks in the regime. Russia right now imho is like a half played game of Jenga, you just never know if that next brick might make the whole thing crash down!

Another potential few bricks

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

What is Putin scared of? Everything. The man is a coward.

Just another autocrat living in terror but happy to inflict it on millions of others.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Now, the idea that Prig has Kompromat on Putin I totally believe. He had no other security at all for stopping his march to Moscow. Though it proved not to be enough, he must have had some notion it would protect him.

Trouble is, Putin controls the airwaves, what would be serious enough to bring him down?

Or it could be the Kompromat isn't on Putin at all, it could be someone who Putin is relying on ... like Trump. Putin may have reasoned Trump is finished anyway before ordering Prig to be blown out of the skies.

 

[Eric the meek]

Putin persuaded the first Wagner convoy to halt its drive to Moscow, in return for some kind of deal.

Unless the deal was for Putin to kill Prigozhin and the military commander of Wagner, it looks like Putin reneged on the deal.

In these circumstances, I would have thought the chances of a Wagner advance on Moscow are higher than last time.

 

[Nobby]

Ukrainian independence day today.

And whilst NSC is universally pro Ukraine, I don't think there's been many wars in my lifetime with such clear lines of good v evil. With such inspiration and courage v such sickening atrocity and cowardice.

If you have 12 mins, Zelensky independence day address embodies that inspiration and courage in the face of such evil. What a war time leader.

Wonderful Thanks for posting Peter. Tears in my eyes

Slava Ukraini

 

[peterward]

Now, the idea that Prig has Kompromat on Putin I totally believe. He had no other security at all for stopping his march to Moscow. Though it proved not to be enough, he must have had some notion it would protect him.

Trouble is, Putin controls the airwaves, what would be serious enough to bring him down?

Or it could be the Kompromat isn't on Putin at all, it could be someone who Putin is relying on ... like Trump. Putin may have reasoned Trump is finished anyway before ordering Prig to be blown out of the skies.

Very astute observation! I genuinely wondered the same, as Prigorzhin was the one allegedly leading the disinfo ops, troll farms and interference in 2016.

He'd have inside knowledge on that and no doubt truth about Russian ops inside Donbass, (of which Prigorzhin Was remarkably honest before about Russia lead, no Nazis and no threat from Ukraine prior Feb 22) and coups in Africa.

Someone doesn't get to Prigorzhins level by being an absolute idiot. I don't believe for one second he'd be foolish enough to trust any security guarantees he was given, far more likely he felt he had enough security of his own in compromising information.

 

[Diablo]

Can`t see if anyone else has mentioned.
Whilst Prigorzhin was considered by Putin a traitor + I believe couple of others on plane. Putin has no qualms about murdering Pilot and crew of plane. They will all presumably have family left !!
Decent Russians as I expect 95% plus are, can do nothing .... Try and you`re next for the chop !!

 

[raymondo]

Assuming Prigozhin is dead, it will probably be some time (years?) before we know who was really behind it.

Might have been Ukraine, for obvious reasons. Might have been Putin: to demonstrate his strength and to repay Prig’s treachery. Might be a deception and he’ll pop up somewhere else in a couple of months ( surely unlikely?).

Whatever, it’s surely not a scenario that Putin would have planned for in his SMO which seems to have been presented internally as a quick win and has been anything but. Surely this event shows further vulnerability that can only weaken his position in the minds of ordinary Russian citizens?

IMO it was Putin 100% (now that I've calmed down about possible conspiracy theories). Putin has often worked this way i.e. vengeance is a dish better served cold.
It's 2 months to the day. Again, IMO, this makes Putin look stronger not weaker. Majority of Russians will agree that Wagnerites were traitors to start marching on Moscow (and they killed some Russian military, remember) and will be very happy about Putin's action.
The only open question for me is what will serving Wagnerites do...if anything.

 

[raymondo]

Putin persuaded the first Wagner convoy to halt its drive to Moscow, in return for some kind of deal.

Unless the deal was for Putin to kill Prigozhin and the military commander of Wagner, it looks like Putin reneged on the deal.

In these circumstances, I would have thought the chances of a Wagner advance on Moscow are higher than last time.

The deal could still have included...: We have your family members (Prig's and Wagner elite) here, with guns to their heads (photos attached)...

 

[raymondo]

Can`t see if anyone else has mentioned.
Whilst Prigorzhin was considered by Putin a traitor + I believe couple of others on plane. Putin has no qualms about murdering Pilot and crew of plane. They will all presumably have family left !!
Decent Russians as I expect 95% plus are, can do nothing .... Try and you`re next for the chop !!

Collateral damage is irrelevant to Putin

 

[peterward]

Putin persuaded the first Wagner convoy to halt its drive to Moscow, in return for some kind of deal.

Unless the deal was for Putin to kill Prigozhin and the military commander of Wagner, it looks like Putin reneged on the deal.

In these circumstances, I would have thought the chances of a Wagner advance on Moscow are higher than last time.

For sure Putin reneged on whatever deal was struck, its just remarkable that Prigorzhin ever thought he wouldnt and that many in the west are still calling for a deal with Putin.

I personally think the chances of Wagner success now are much much less. Then they had surprise, they had heavy weaponary of all sorts and they had a lot of tacit support from within the Russian aparatus.

2 months on, they've been stripped of heavy weaponary, Prigorzhin has been non stop smeared on state TV as a traitor, Surovikhin vanished the Wagnerites are not being paid as Prigorzhin stripped of a lot of his economic interests.

In june they were an organised, equipped, well funded private army. Today they're well trained, but with limited weapons and no direct funding or original leadership.

Putin, obviously saw the risks were too high in June, offered a deal he had no intent to honour, then weakend Wagner to virtually nothing, before killing all its leadership.

Civil war or uprising would be a good outcome for Ukraine, but not sure remnants of Wagner have anywhere near the combat power to overthrow Putin. Lets hope!

 

[A1X]

 

[raymondo]

For sure Putin reneged on whatever deal was struck, its just remarkable that Prigorzhin ever thought he wouldnt and that many in the west are still calling for a deal with Putin.

I personally think the chances of Wagner success now are much much less. Then they had surprise, they had heavy weaponary of all sorts and they had a lot of tacit support from within the Russian aparatus.

2 months on, they've been stripped of heavy weaponary, Prigorzhin has been non stop smeared on state TV as a traitor, Surovikhin vanished the Wagnerites are not being paid as Prigorzhin stripped of a lot of his economic interests.

In june they were an organised, equipped, well funded private army. Today they're well trained, but with limited weapons and no direct funding or original leadership.

Putin, obviously saw the risks were too high in June, offered a deal he had no intent to honour, then weakend Wagner to virtually nothing, before killing all its leadership.

Civil war or uprising would be a good outcome for Ukraine, but not sure remnants of Wagner have anywhere near the combat power to overthrow Putin. Lets hope!

Exactly this IMO too.
Any Wagner uprising will be swiftly dealt with, or a deal (to be reneged upon) made with any stupid new leaders.
I suspect Surovikhin may contract an illness soon, and be cared for by their excellent health services.