[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[driddles]

^ I seem to remember finance people (I'm not one) saying that it would take a year or so for the sanctions to really sting russia, glad to see they are having the desired affect. Those same people said that even when this terrorist invasion ends and the sanctions are lifted russia won't just swing back to the good old days for the ruble, that is going to take time. russia is hopefully entering the Find Out stage of FAFO

 

[Eric the meek]

^ I seem to remember finance people (I'm not one) saying that it would take a year or so for the sanctions to really sting russia, glad to see they are having the desired affect. Those same people said that even when this terrorist invasion ends and the sanctions are lifted russia won't just swing back to the good old days for the ruble, that is going to take time. russia is hopefully entering the Find Out stage of FAFO

Let's hope so.

But there are any number and any sequence of events that could happen in this war, the transition to a lasting and secure peace, the continuing decline of Russia, a change of regime, the possible disintegration of the Russian Federation and neighbouring powers picking over the carcass.

Trying to second guess what Russia will do next in all this is a fool's errand.

In all this tragedy, I take comfort from a simple observation. I hope others do as well. The US economy is ten times the size of Russia's. The US has conducted this war at arms length, just by the power of its economic might. To my knowledge, it has hardly even put any boots on the ground. It doesn't need to.

 

[raymondo]

In 1986, a Ruble was worth 0.29 USD. Today, it is worth around 0.01 USD. One cent.
And it continues to fall. Russia's central bank has raised rates by 3.5 percentage points in a bid to stem rising prices and the falling ruble.

At the risk of sounding like Fabrizio Romano, this is worth keeping an eye on.

Russia Sharply Raises Interest Rates as Wartime Financial Problems Pile Up

The country’s central bank raised interest rates 3.5 percentage points to stem rising prices and a weakening ruble. The move came after the national currency briefly fell below a key level with the U.S. dollar.

www.nytimes.com

"...here we go " ohhh...I was beaten to it by @peterward

 

[Sirnormangall]

Let's hope so.

But there are any number and any sequence of events that could happen in this war, the transition to a lasting and secure peace, the continuing decline of Russia, a change of regime, the possible disintegration of the Russian Federation and neighbouring powers picking over the carcass.

Trying to second guess what Russia will do next in all this is a fool's errand.

In all this tragedy, I take comfort from a simple observation. I hope others do as well. The US economy is ten times the size of Russia's. The US has conducted this war at arms length, just by the power of its economic might. To my knowledge, it has hardly even put any boots on the ground. It doesn't need to.

You’re absolutely right - the outcome is unpredictable and as much as we’d like Russia to fail we need to understand the potential consequences.

 

[Sirnormangall]

Today I watched ‘Mariopol unlost hope’. Think it was produced by PBS - a documentary based on the experience and testimony of individual citizens of that city. It’s a heartbreaking reminder of the horrors of this war and the barbaric Russian army. Shouldn’t be happening in the 21st century.

 

[raymondo]

Today I watched ‘Mariopol unlost hope’. Think it was produced by PBS - a documentary based on the experience and testimony of individual citizens of that city. It’s a heartbreaking reminder of the horrors of this war and the barbaric Russian army. Shouldn’t be happening in the 21st century.

Where can I find the video please? Thanks

 

[Sirnormangall]

Where can I find the video please? Thanks

Sorry I don’t have the technical skills to provide a direct link but I think you’ll find it at www.pbsamerica.co.uk>series

 

[raymondo]

Sorry I don’t have the technical skills to provide a direct link but I think you’ll find it at www.pbsamerica.co.uk>series

Many thanks

 

[Change at Barnham]

If you click in the dark box below 'Watch on You Tube' it will take you to a 10 minute trailer.
It's horrible what has happened and as mentioned before, quite incredible that someone can do this in the current day.

 

[Brovion]

Russia has a history of beating all opponents facing it. Even armed by the USA and nato countries, this much heralded offensive seems to be a faiure at the moment.

The Germans in WW1? And the Germans did that with one hand tied behind their backs as they were fighting the British and French at the same time on another front.

 

[A1X]

Russia has a history of beating all opponents facing it. Even armed by the USA and nato countries, this much heralded offensive seems to be a faiure at the moment.

Russo-Japanese war 1905
Winter war 1939

 

[essbee1]

Russo-Japanese war 1905
Winter war 1939

Didn't Finland kick Russia's arse as well -or is that the 1939 thing?

 

[A1X]

Didn't Finland kick Russia's arse as well -or is that the 1939 thing?

That was in 1939 but it's not the only example of Finland giving Russia a hiding over the years

 

[stoo82!]

A minor conflict. Russia has never been known as a sea power.

A minor conflict that led to a revolution

 

[Brovion]

Oh, we're all forgetting the Crimean War!

 

[Sirnormangall]

Russia’s moon landing has ended in failure. Putin doesn’t seem to have much good news to report these days to the good citizens of Russia.

 

[raymondo]

Regular small successes

 

[The Clamp]

Sixty one F16 fighter jets en route to Ukraine.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Sixty one F16 fighter jets en route to Ukraine.

This is excellent news, and you would imagine, it's one of those things where now one country has broken the taboo, others will follow. Scaling up training, support and infrastructure has to be the priority now

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Now I don't know much about military strategy, but the thought does occur to me that time is on Ukraine's side in a number of ways. So they will be getting these fighter jets, Himars and Storm Shadows pound Russian logistics far more accurately that Russians pound theirs and cluster munitions are arriving in increasing number, which will again keep Russians pinned down. From what I read, the Russian artillery superiority is being ground down and sides are now reaching parity

What Ukraine really need are the forces in hand to exploit these advantages. So what if they put the off the large scale, heavy loss attritional infantry attacks and spend the coming months removing mines and finally getting rid of that bridge once and for all.

Again, I don;t claim to know more than the Ukraine experts on this.