[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[ChickenBaltiPie]

Russia has a history of beating all opponents facing it. Even armed by the USA and nato countries, this much heralded offensive seems to be a faiure at the moment.

You couldn’t be more wrong! They’re making constant/steady gains with minimal loses whilst snuffing out every attempt by Russia to take more territory and despite being the attacking force vs an army that had months to build their defences and prepare, on average the Russians are losing men and equipment at a minimum of at least three times as many as Ukraine every day. (It should be the opposite.) It will ‘seem’ slow until the point at which it isn’t, Ukraine will break through the Russian defence line and then take it all back VERY quickly with the Russians unable to do anything about it. Ukraine are making numerous very strategic/intelligent moves that undermine the Russians consistently, cutting their supply lines and weapon/ammunition caché. Piece by piece they’re making all the right moves to achieve ultimate success. The pace of their progress is entirely deliberate and strategic and nothing to do with the Russians ability to stop them. The biggest undeniable challenge for Ukraine is all the damn mines Russia have laid. Ukraine have broken through the Russian front line (the hardest, arguably only considerable challenge) and once they do that in more places the mine fields will be behind them!

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Thats a ridiculously simplistic statement.

Russia beat the Nazis in huge part because of Russian winter, and almost certainly wouldn't have without US lend lease of hardware, and UK intelligence that handed them all of Germanys plans in advance.

As for Ukraine counter offensive, they are performing miracles right now.

No NATO country, not one, would even attempt to do what Ukraine is without deep strike capability or air superiority.... both of which were denied Ukraine who asked a year ago.

Russia is targeting civillian buildings, and 3rd world food supply, it isn't winning on battlefield.

It is NATO and mainly US who are moving and arming Ukraine at the speed of Shame, giving them enough to not lose but not enough to win decisively and in quantities (and lack of deep strike/air superiority) where US would never even contemplate an offensive, if it was them.

The US is trying to micro manage the war and result, to not let Ukraine win quickly or decisively, nor let Putin fall suddenly or dramatically. To slowly deflate balloon (boiled frog)

Jake Sullivan who is running the "collective Joe Biden" is both terrified of Escalation and of a sudden Russian collapse that could leave Russian nukes in uncertain hands.

It's laughable that anybody with the first idea of what's actually happening may suggest Ukraines counter offensive is a failure.

They're not right now, trying to take/hold territory in as much as take out Russian artillery hardware and cut logistics lines, they're succeeding at both. Probing attacks, invite artillery response, take out with counter battery fire. Destroy hardware and trench troops, with drones etc, then clear trenches and minefields.

They've drawn Russian reserves to plug holes where now Russia has little/no reserves left (from russian reporting), they're having to shift foces from one part of front,weakening it, to plug other parts. for Russia right now its precarious.

Ukraine is still only using 1 3rd of what it started with just 2 months ago, and has 2/3 of its fighting force still in reserve for main thrust once full attrition is done.

Ukraine is also having to go through heavily prepared defensive lines full of mines, (now most mined country in world) and mines/defencee that got laid months after Ukraine pleaded for tanks and west dithered, where they could have much easier got through.

This counter offensive will go down in legend, they are doing what's never been done massively under resourced without swathes of NATO standard force (being withheld).

NATO would win this easily and so would Ukraine if Washington wanted a decisive Ukrainian victory and equipped them for it.

Ukraine Will win, but the time and cost in blood much higher because we're months behind at every step.

Like, like and megalike

 

[Eric the meek]

Here's a Youtube I found with some detailed analysis of what looks like multiple hits on the Kerch bridge, as well as a bonus of the SU30 fighter jet lost along with 2 pilots who failed to eject, at the Kaliningrad air show.

 

[driddles]

Still haven't seen any damage reports or photos, but Google maps has changed the bridge status to Temporarily Closed

 

[ChickenBaltiPie]

I think from what I can gather Russia repelled an attack and/or faked doing so. In an attempt to in still greater confidence in their ability to do so.

 

[Nobby]

Russia has a history of beating all opponents facing it. Even armed by the USA and nato countries, this much heralded offensive seems to be a faiure at the moment.

Please don’t come in here with stupid ignorant statements. People are dying each day - because of the orcs aggression.
If the West had some balls……
Stay out of subjects that you know nothing about.

 

[Nobby]

The USSR held on to Afghanistan for a lot longer than than USA, NATO in trying to install a western democracy which ultimately failed.

.
Unbelievable

 

[Nobby]

A minor conflict. Russia has never been known as a sea power.

 

[raymondo]

Thats a ridiculously simplistic statement.

Russia beat the Nazis in huge part because of Russian winter, and almost certainly wouldn't have without US lend lease of hardware, and UK intelligence that handed them all of Germanys plans in advance.

As for Ukraine counter offensive, they are performing miracles right now.

No NATO country, not one, would even attempt to do what Ukraine is without deep strike capability or air superiority.... both of which were denied Ukraine who asked a year ago.

Russia is targeting civillian buildings, and 3rd world food supply, it isn't winning on battlefield.

It is NATO and mainly US who are moving and arming Ukraine at the speed of Shame, giving them enough to not lose but not enough to win decisively and in quantities (and lack of deep strike/air superiority) where US would never even contemplate an offensive, if it was them.

The US is trying to micro manage the war and result, to not let Ukraine win quickly or decisively, nor let Putin fall suddenly or dramatically. To slowly deflate balloon (boiled frog)

Jake Sullivan who is running the "collective Joe Biden" is both terrified of Escalation and of a sudden Russian collapse that could leave Russian nukes in uncertain hands.

It's laughable that anybody with the first idea of what's actually happening may suggest Ukraines counter offensive is a failure.

They're not right now, trying to take/hold territory in as much as take out Russian artillery hardware and cut logistics lines, they're succeeding at both. Probing attacks, invite artillery response, take out with counter battery fire. Destroy hardware and trench troops, with drones etc, then clear trenches and minefields.

They've drawn Russian reserves to plug holes where now Russia has little/no reserves left (from russian reporting), they're having to shift foces from one part of front,weakening it, to plug other parts. for Russia right now its precarious.

Ukraine is still only using 1 3rd of what it started with just 2 months ago, and has 2/3 of its fighting force still in reserve for main thrust once full attrition is done.

Ukraine is also having to go through heavily prepared defensive lines full of mines, (now most mined country in world) and mines/defencee that got laid months after Ukraine pleaded for tanks and west dithered, where they could have much easier got through.

This counter offensive will go down in legend, they are doing what's never been done massively under resourced without swathes of NATO standard force (being withheld).

NATO would win this easily and so would Ukraine if Washington wanted a decisive Ukrainian victory and equipped them for it.

Ukraine Will win, but the time and cost in blood much higher because we're months behind at every step.

Yours is a fantastic reply that took you time, energy and patience...thanks

 

[raymondo]

You couldn’t be more wrong! They’re making constant/steady gains with minimal loses whilst snuffing out every attempt by Russia to take more territory and despite being the attacking force vs an army that had months to build their defences and prepare, on average the Russians are losing men and equipment at a minimum of at least three times as many as Ukraine every day. (It should be the opposite.) It will ‘seem’ slow until the point at which it isn’t, Ukraine will break through the Russian defence line and then take it all back VERY quickly with the Russians unable to do anything about it. Ukraine are making numerous very strategic/intelligent moves that undermine the Russians consistently, cutting their supply lines and weapon/ammunition caché. Piece by piece they’re making all the right moves to achieve ultimate success. The pace of their progress is entirely deliberate and strategic and nothing to do with the Russians ability to stop them. The biggest undeniable challenge for Ukraine is all the damn mines Russia have laid. Ukraine have broken through the Russian front line (the hardest, arguably only considerable challenge) and once they do that in more places the mine fields will be behind them!

Well said.
This is 'catastrophe theory' in action: the Russian defence is being stretched and stretched and stretched... like an elastic band, until...it will snap.
I just hope Ukraine can preserve sufficient resources until this happens.

 

[essbee1]

The USSR held on to Afghanistan for a lot longer than than USA, NATO in trying to install a western democracy which ultimately failed.

Christ on a bike. Have you read any history or are you from the Harry Potter deluded generation.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Danish air force intercepts two Russian bombers flying 'towards NATO territory'​

The Danish air force intercepted two Russian bombers flying over Denmark and towards airspace monitored by the Netherlands on behalf of NATO, the Dutch air force has said.

Happy Days.

 

[Eric the meek]

This is a new one. A swarm of tiny Ukrainian drones have overwhelmed a Russian tank. A glimpse into the future?

A Swarm Of Tiny Ukrainian Drones Just Knocked Out One Of Russia’s Nine Remaining Terminator Vehicles

The Russian army lost its first BMPT, out of 10 Uralvagonzavod built for the service, back in February. It may have lost a second over the weekend.

www.forbes.com

 

[ChickenBaltiPie]

This is a new one. A swarm of tiny Ukrainian drones have overwhelmed a Russian tank. A glimpse into the future?

A Swarm Of Tiny Ukrainian Drones Just Knocked Out One Of Russia’s Nine Remaining Terminator Vehicles

The Russian army lost its first BMPT, out of 10 Uralvagonzavod built for the service, back in February. It may have lost a second over the weekend.

www.forbes.com

That was a few days ago now…they took out the tank & additional troops trying to save it too

 

[Is it PotG?]

Scotchland now.

https://news.sky.com/story/raf-typh...ian-bombers-flying-north-of-scotland-12939983

 

[Eric the meek]

In 1986, a Ruble was worth 0.29 USD. Today, it is worth around 0.01 USD. One cent.
And it continues to fall. Russia's central bank has raised rates by 3.5 percentage points in a bid to stem rising prices and the falling ruble.

At the risk of sounding like Fabrizio Romano, this is worth keeping an eye on.

Russia Sharply Raises Interest Rates as Wartime Financial Problems Pile Up

The country’s central bank raised interest rates 3.5 percentage points to stem rising prices and a weakening ruble. The move came after the national currency briefly fell below a key level with the U.S. dollar.

www.nytimes.com

 

[peterward]

In 1986, a Ruble was worth 0.29 USD. Today, it is worth around 0.01 USD. One cent.
And it continues to fall. Russia's central bank has raised rates by 3.5 percentage points in a bid to stem rising prices and the falling ruble.

At the risk of sounding like Fabrizio Romano, this is worth keeping an eye on.

Russia Sharply Raises Interest Rates as Wartime Financial Problems Pile Up

The country’s central bank raised interest rates 3.5 percentage points to stem rising prices and a weakening ruble. The move came after the national currency briefly fell below a key level with the U.S. dollar.

www.nytimes.com

BREAKING: Russian Economy "Here we go"

 

[Eric the meek]

BREAKING: Russian Economy "Here we go"

We shouldn't really be surprised. I believe the unspoken and unwritten intention of the sanctions was not just to disable the Russian war machine, but to destroy the Russian economy. The financial heads of the US, UK, and 27 EU countries didn't meet up to impose sanctions to just do half a job.

I see Russia is trialing a digital Ruble currency. No idea or opinion on whether it will work or not.

Russia to widen scope of digital rouble testing from Aug. 15 -central bank

Russia will begin piloting its digital rouble with consumers on Aug. 15 after a lengthy testing phase with banks, the central bank said on Wednesday, as Moscow looks to widen the scope of its cross-border payments.

www.reuters.com

 

[Scappa]

 

[Eric the meek]

Got 45 minutes to spare? Sit back, make a cup of tea, and enjoy 'Honey, I shrunk the economy'.

Summary or TL/DR:
Sanctions are hurting the Russian economy. The Ruble is in a long-term decline, reflecting the performance of the Russian economy. Russian imports are becoming ever more expensive and revenues from exports are falling. So Russia is importing inflation, while it seems to have been misreporting the official inflation figures (!). The Russian central bank has been ordered to take steps to boost the ruble, but a base rate hike of 3.5% will only temporarily delay the rot, as nobody wants to buy - or be paid in - rubles, including China and India. The conclusion is that to save the Russian economy, the only option for Putin is to stop the war and get the sanctions lifted.

How the decline of the Russian ruble is hurting the Russian economy (clip is 6 days old):



The recent Russian central bank base rate hike of 350 basis points (clip is two days old):