[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[sparkie]

The problem is, the people is Russia who would care about that a) don't know and b) have no power to do anything about it anyway. So what if it's a million dead? They can't overthrow him.

When he goes it'll be quick and it'll be the army ( mostly now mobilsed civilians ) that overthrows him.

 

[Eric the meek]

While we are happy to have a bit of speculation on the forum, what do you all think will happen when the war ends? What will it look like?
There is no right or wrong answer, as clearly we are not there yet, and there are a thousand different scenarios.

Here's my tuppenceworth, based on best guesses, a vivid imagination and a large dollop of wishful thinking.

The war is coming to an end. There are some skirmishes, and disparate bands of Russians are walking off the battlefields and making their way back to Russia.
Save the odd missile still being lobbed at Ukrainians, Russia is defeated, but what defeat looks like is developing in real time.

The atmosphere in Moscow is febrile and dangerous. Putin has disappeared. Many theories abound, but no reliable mainstream sources report him either alive or dead. Putin v2.0 is seeking accession to the throne, with a very Russian mix of threat, bribery and violence. Some regional warlords are sitting on their hands watching events, while others are agitating for more power. Allegiances are changing by the day. There is no sign of a liberal democratic movement waiting to take over.

In Ukraine, a mixture of joy and relief is rapidly being replaced by a national call to rebuild. At local level, particularly in the south and east, there is talk of retribution. Kill lists of war criminals are being updated, shared and traded. Some are published in the public domain, some aren't. Mercenaries and foreign bounty hunters, some Russian, are beginning to appear. A general election is called. Zelensky declares he is not running.

P.S. You can tell it's close season, can't you?

 

[amexer]

So many on here think Russia are losing and it will finish soon. Surely with more bombs like the one one on the wheat directed at Kiev etc would be the end of Ukraine. All seems one way with Russia able to bomb anywhere and Ukraine just restricted to defending what they have.
Have not followed as closely as some but why do people think Ukraine are winning

 

[Eric the meek]

So many on here think Russia are losing and it will finish soon. Surely with more bombs like the one one on the wheat directed at Kiev etc would be the end of Ukraine. All seems one way with Russia able to bomb anywhere and Ukraine just restricted to defending what they have.
Have not followed as closely as some but why do people think Ukraine are winning

Who has said the war will finish soon?

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

So many on here think Russia are losing and it will finish soon. Surely with more bombs like the one one on the wheat directed at Kiev etc would be the end of Ukraine. All seems one way with Russia able to bomb anywhere and Ukraine just restricted to defending what they have.
Have not followed as closely as some but why do people think Ukraine are winning

What you say is fair and I think reflects that getting accurate analysis of the war is hard to get from mainstream sources and so many have turned to twitter (etc) which gives close to real time battle footage and analysis which often clearly favours one side or the other.

I've tried to look at both sides but inevitably the English speaking observers are all pulling in one direction. As ever the advice should be read trusted sources and beware of convincing sounding social media personalities. I personally trust the BBC and the Guardian, but it's up to everyone to work out who to them sounds plausible, impartial and can back up what they say.

That all said, I do think there are some encouraging long term trends for the vast numbers in the free world who desperately want to see Ukraine prevail. I just think we're conditioned to watching movies where the baddie gets deservedly vanquished in a manageable timeframe. The thing is, it could all collapse very quickly. It probably would have done, had Prighozin continued to Moscow. But this could go on for years and years of attritional warfare with large military and civilian losses. I'm heartened, that after all this time, the war features very prominently in the news and the west is still talking and thinking about it and still sending more aid. This will need to continue and I think it will

 

[raymondo]

What you say is fair and I think reflects that getting accurate analysis of the war is hard to get from mainstream sources and so many have turned to twitter (etc) which gives close to real time battle footage and analysis which often clearly favours one side or the other.

I've tried to look at both sides but inevitably the English speaking observers are all pulling in one direction. As ever the advice should be read trusted sources and beware of convincing sounding social media personalities. I personally trust the BBC and the Guardian, but it's up to everyone to work out who to them sounds plausible, impartial and can back up what they say.

That all said, I do think there are some encouraging long term trends for the vast numbers in the free world who desperately want to see Ukraine prevail. I just think we're conditioned to watching movies where the baddie gets deservedly vanquished in a manageable timeframe. The thing is, it could all collapse very quickly. It probably would have done, had Prighozin continued to Moscow. But this could go on for years and years of attritional warfare with large military and civilian losses. I'm heartened, that after all this time, the war features very prominently in the news and the west is still talking and thinking about it and still sending more aid. This will need to continue and I think it will

Interestingly, last August on holiday in France, the two local host families of the apartments we rented both said the war had disappeared from France's mainstream media (I haven't checked myself). ....and asked us for an update. Clearly they could have dug into twitter etc but hadn't.
They were quite interested when I said the BBC website had a tab 'The war in Ukraine'. And this was last August.

 

[raymondo]

While we are happy to have a bit of speculation on the forum, what do you all think will happen when the war ends? What will it look like?
There is no right or wrong answer, as clearly we are not there yet, and there are a thousand different scenarios.

Here's my tuppenceworth, based on best guesses, a vivid imagination and a large dollop of wishful thinking.

The war is coming to an end. There are some skirmishes, and disparate bands of Russians are walking off the battlefields and making their way back to Russia.
Save the odd missile still being lobbed at Ukrainians, Russia is defeated, but what defeat looks like is developing in real time.

The atmosphere in Moscow is febrile and dangerous. Putin has disappeared. Many theories abound, but no reliable mainstream sources report him either alive or dead. Putin v2.0 is seeking accession to the throne, with a very Russian mix of threat, bribery and violence. Some regional warlords are sitting on their hands watching events, while others are agitating for more power. Allegiances are changing by the day. There is no sign of a liberal democratic movement waiting to take over.

In Ukraine, a mixture of joy and relief is rapidly being replaced by a national call to rebuild. At local level, particularly in the south and east, there is talk of retribution. Kill lists of war criminals are being updated, shared and traded. Some are published in the public domain, some aren't. Mercenaries and foreign bounty hunters, some Russian, are beginning to appear. A general election is called. Zelensky declares he is not running.

P.S. You can tell it's close season, can't you?

Could be, could be... Russia heads toward entropy.
I can't get my head easily (or emotions more likely) around a possible outcome yet...but I'm feeling a bit negative this week so here's an alternative take that I hope doesn't happen but...
The west DOES get tired with the length of the war (could be ano 2 years or more), especially if the Republicans win the next US election (Trump, please God no...).
Ukraine regains another 25% of occupied territory but then there's a stalemate.

Putin (yes, still Putin) proposes peace talks again. Ukraine is pushed into compromises by the west. Agreements are made (that will be broken within 3 years...and the cycle will continue......)
Zelensky resigns and is replaced by a leader more accommodating toward the flakey agreements.

I float this scenario because friends of ours living in Zaporizhzhia city are very tired of the war, and it's not suffered like Kherson or Kharkov. She and her son have lost their jobs. Many stores are closed in the city and getting fresh food is increasing difficult....yes, supply lines are open but that's their reality. The city council doesn't clean the streets (although basic rubbish collection happens) and many services are closed.
Air raid sirens every night. Many people selling some of their belongings or veg from their dacha on the streets.
These friends and their neighbours say they wish Ukraine had accepted last year to legally lose Donbas and Crimea.
They were lucky, they weren't in Mariupol, Bucha, Irpin etc....but they still feel exhausted.
Where our in-laws live, South East of Energoda power station, every farming village has had trenches, tank traps, minefields dug on their northern semi circle....many villages like this on or near the road south to Melitopol. It's a HUGE task for Ukraine if the Russians defend.

I haven't given up hope, my wife neither, but our Ukrainian friends on the ground (well some of them) have.
It'll take a major capitulation of Russian troops or supplies, and of course we're still hoping that happens.

Ok, I'll post this and run. When I have a more positive week I'll try again @Eric the meek

 

[driddles]

My 2 cents - the summer offensive started June 4th, and with summer being 3 months we shouldn't judge it until Sept 4th. Ukraine has clearly been focussing on damaging russian stockpiles, command, troops, and supply lines.

At some point in time russian troops are going to experience shortages of ammo and food somewhere along the front, and Ukraine will be able to exploit the weakness and pounce.

Ukraine has shown that they can hit russians anywhere in occupied Ukraine, this is going to eat away further at russian moral. Meanwhile Ukraine has held back the majority of their US/UK trained troops, keeping them fresh, keeping them ready for a push, wherever the weak spots appear.

 

[RandyWanger]

While we are happy to have a bit of speculation on the forum, what do you all think will happen when the war ends? What will it look like?
There is no right or wrong answer, as clearly we are not there yet, and there are a thousand different scenarios.

Blackrock make billions in the rebuild

 

[Eric the meek]

Could be, could be... Russia heads toward entropy.
I can't get my head easily (or emotions more likely) around a possible outcome yet...but I'm feeling a bit negative this week so here's an alternative take that I hope doesn't happen but...
The west DOES get tired with the length of the war (could be ano 2 years or more), especially if the Republicans win the next US election (Trump, please God no...).
Ukraine regains another 25% of occupied territory but then there's a stalemate.

Putin (yes, still Putin) proposes peace talks again. Ukraine is pushed into compromises by the west. Agreements are made (that will be broken within 3 years...and the cycle will continue......)
Zelensky resigns and is replaced by a leader more accommodating toward the flakey agreements.

I float this scenario because friends of ours living in Zaporizhzhia city are very tired of the war, and it's not suffered like Kherson or Kharkov. She and her son have lost their jobs. Many stores are closed in the city and getting fresh food is increasing difficult....yes, supply lines are open but that's their reality. The city council doesn't clean the streets (although basic rubbish collection happens) and many services are closed.
Air raid sirens every night. Many people selling some of their belongings or veg from their dacha on the streets.
These friends and their neighbours say they wish Ukraine had accepted last year to legally lose Donbas and Crimea.
They were lucky, they weren't in Mariupol, Bucha, Irpin etc....but they still feel exhausted.
Where our in-laws live, South East of Energoda power station, every farming village has had trenches, tank traps, minefields dug on their northern semi circle....many villages like this on or near the road south to Melitopol. It's a HUGE task for Ukraine if the Russians defend.

I haven't given up hope, my wife neither, but our Ukrainian friends on the ground (well some of them) have.
It'll take a major capitulation of Russian troops or supplies, and of course we're still hoping that happens.

Ok, I'll post this and run. When I have a more positive week I'll try again @Eric the meek

Thank you for that brief insight into what the real war is like for ordinary Ukrainians.
I should have realised that many Ukrainians will be exhausted by the war. It will be far worse than any of us can imagine.

Several months ago I read a report from the Royal United Services Institute that Putin was fighting on an axis that not many had considered - time. He is relying on war fatigue setting in, particularly in the west. Obviously the west is aware of this.

On a separate note, the fact that Putin is now weaponising food, complaining that Russian agricultural exports are prevented by the sanctions, is proof that the sanctions are hurting him. Whatever he does next, whatever he weaponises, the west needs to remain resolute.

You are right not to give up hope. It may not seem like it, but Russia is running out of ammo, a fact not lost on Ukraine, who are blowing up Russian ammo depots.

BTW, I think the Kerch bridge got to him. It's hugely symbolic. He launched the revenge attack on Odessa, while Russian state TV is actually encouraging Russians to holiday in Crimea! In a war zone. Good idea

 

[vegster]

You're right and there still wouldn't be peace even if Putin did pull out, which he won't.

As long as he remains in power he will continue to be a malign terrorist, doing everything to destabilise

If that means just lobbing missiles, he'll still do it. A western leaning prosperous Ukraine in the EU, is a huge threat to his criminal, backwards kleptocracy.

Putin must be defeated for this to stop and any type of real peace to return.

He's a War Criminal on many levels and with a multitude of offences against innocent people, and, the UN is unable to bring him to justice. He has to leave Russia either in a box or on a plane to some Arab country taking with him as much of his loot that he can carry. He can't stay in power after all the atrocities committed on his orders.


Hopefully Mossad will finish him off with an exploding Loo Blue cube while he's sat on the bog.

 

[Binney on acid]

Sadly, I feel that Raymondo's last post perfectly sums up how morale sapping Putin's war of attrition's has been on those poor souls in Ukraine. Subjected to unimaginable terror on a daily basis, when all they crave is a return to a semblance of normality. Putin's war of attrition is designed to wear down their resistance, irrespective of whether it takes weeks, months or years. Disrupting the supply of food and water, and destroying the infrastructure inevitably makes life hell for a nation that can only respond to genocidal acts of provocation, rather than inflict proportionate damage to their enemy's major cities. I despair for the people of Ukraine. I hope and pray that I'm proved wrong, but only god knows how many lives have changed forever, how many atrocities have been committed by a foe incapable of valuing human life, whilst I have been typing this. It's incalculable, it's unimaginable, it brings a tear to my eye and makes me feel sick to the pit of my stomach.

 

[raymondo]

Thank you for that brief insight into what the real war is like for ordinary Ukrainians.
I should have realised that many Ukrainians will be exhausted by the war. It will be far worse than any of us can imagine.

Several months ago I read a report from the Royal United Services Institute that Putin was fighting on an axis that not many had considered - time. He is relying on war fatigue setting in, particularly in the west. Obviously the west is aware of this.

On a separate note, the fact that Putin is now weaponising food, complaining that Russian agricultural exports are prevented by the sanctions, is proof that the sanctions are hurting him. Whatever he does next, whatever he weaponises, the west needs to remain resolute.

You are right not to give up hope. It may not seem like it, but Russia is running out of ammo, a fact not lost on Ukraine, who are blowing up Russian ammo depots.

BTW, I think the Kerch bridge got to him. It's hugely symbolic. He launched the revenge attack on Odessa, while Russian state TV is actually encouraging Russians to holiday in Crimea! In a war zone. Good idea

Yes, I agree. I realise my reply/scenario was a negative one. I'm normally pretty positive about the progress Ukraine's military are making ... it's amazing tbf.
And indeed, Putin is fighting on a time line, originally 3 days and now 3 years.
The Kerch bridge does hurt him, and a major breakthrough on a route to Melitopol or Berdyansk e.g. would too .
I shall be posting more positive updates soon, I'm sure

 

[raymondo]

Sadly, I feel that Raymondo's last post perfectly sums up how morale sapping Putin's war of attrition's has been on those poor souls in Ukraine. Subjected to unimaginable terror on a daily basis, when all they crave is a return to a semblance of normality. Putin's war of attrition is designed to wear down their resistance, irrespective of whether it takes weeks, months or years. Disrupting the supply of food and water, and destroying the infrastructure inevitably makes life hell for a nation that can only respond to genocidal acts of provocation, rather than inflict proportionate damage to their enemy's major cities. I despair for the people of Ukraine. I hope and pray that I'm proved wrong, but only god knows how many lives have changed forever, how many atrocities have been committed by a foe incapable of valuing human life, whilst I have been typing this. It's incalculable, it's unimaginable, it brings a tear to my eye and makes me feel sick to the pit of my stomach.

For sure. Mrs Raymondo was despairing somewhat after her recent call to her friends (hence the mood of my post on the topic). I feel a substantial swing of momentum is needed to register positively with Ukrainians that live close to the war. IMO their military is making good progress, bit by bit, but these small successes often don't register with many of the population.
As you say, it's incredibly hard for them.

 

[raymondo]

More ammo coming very soon from the US.


And some lovely MIGs from Poland

 

[Sirnormangall]

Yes, I agree. I realise my reply/scenario was a negative one. I'm normally pretty positive about the progress Ukraine's military are making ... it's amazing tbf.
And indeed, Putin is fighting on a time line, originally 3 days and now 3 years.
The Kerch bridge does hurt him, and a major breakthrough on a route to Melitopol or Berdyansk e.g. would too .
I shall be posting more positive updates soon, I'm sure

Whilst it was a negative scenario it was nonetheless realistic and plausible. There will probably be some Ukrainians who would accept giving up the occupied territories or ceding it as a DMZ - after all, much of the housing and infrastructure is just rubble and the countryside littered with mines and unexplored ordinance that will take years to clear. That said, I continue to hope that the west will continue to support them, that Russia won’t be able to sustain its war effort and that Ukraine will prevail.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Whilst it was a negative scenario it was nonetheless realistic and plausible. There will probably be some Ukrainians who would accept giving up the occupied territories or ceding it as a DMZ - after all, much of the housing and infrastructure is just rubble and the countryside littered with mines and unexplored ordinance that will take years to clear. That said, I continue to hope that the west will continue to support them, that Russia won’t be able to sustain its war effort and that Ukraine will prevail.

I don't doubt how weary the brave people of Ukraine must be.

But set against that is the understanding that putin, or whoever succeeds him won't ever be satisfied. They will always be back for more all the time they are able.

 

[Sirnormangall]

I don't doubt how weary the brave people of Ukraine must be.

But set against that is the understanding that putin, or whoever succeeds him won't ever be satisfied. They will always be back for more all the time they are able.

Yes, while regime change would be welcome it would likely herald just more of the same - though I’m sure many of us would prefer a Gorbachev type replacement.

 

[GT49er]

Attractive as it might seem, rocket and bomb attacks on Russia, and Russian civilians is probably not the answer. Losing the moral high-ground and all that. If and when they have the weapons to do so, taking out the Kurch Bridge, and then sinking the Russian Black Sea fleet should be the next major game-changer.
With the ending of the grain agreement, other navies can legitimately defend the grain ships going through the Bosporous (sp?), not just the Turkish navy. That wouldn't be an attack on Russian territory, but would be devastating to the Russian war effort and fake news campaign. The elimination of the Black Sea fleet would be a tough one to explain in anyone's book!

 

[Eric the meek]

Attractive as it might seem, rocket and bomb attacks on Russia, and Russian civilians is probably not the answer. Losing the moral high-ground and all that. If and when they have the weapons to do so, taking out the Kurch Bridge, and then sinking the Russian Black Sea fleet should be the next major game-changer.
With the ending of the grain agreement, other navies can legitimately defend the grain ships going through the Bosporous (sp?), not just the Turkish navy. That wouldn't be an attack on Russian territory, but would be devastating to the Russian war effort and fake news campaign. The elimination of the Black Sea fleet would be a tough one to explain in anyone's book!

All good common sense. Until you watch Michael Clarke's report on Sky.

He says Russia are playing the insurance game. If a ship can't get insurance (because of the chance it may be sunk by Russia), then it doesn't sail.