[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[1066familyman]

Some suggesting that it's all a big ruse, so Wagner can attack Ukraine from North in Belarus, it isn't imho.

Wagner shot down 7 Russian aircraft in 24 hours, Putin was on national TV effectively ordering Prigorzhin elimination. I think it far more likely that Prigorzhin realised he couldn't win as not enough of the army or security forces crossed over to him the usurper (as they had in all previous Russian revolutions). 10k Wagner doesn't beat 10k Kadyrovites and 300k Rosgvardia, So he folded. He will be killed, Putin never forgives or forgets.

And its only Prigorzhin sent to Belarus not his Wagner fighters, they've been sent back to their base camps in Ukraine, where they'll be either seconded to Russian MOD or as many have already done since yesterday, broken Wagner contracts and just melt away. Again Putin will now come after all Wagner commanders or ringleaders, multiple reports that already family homes of Wagnerites are being raided. He'll ruthlessly remove and destroy this threat.

Lastly a land assault is virtually impossible, its mainly marshland near Belarus border, Ukraine has destroyed all bridges, mined extremely heavily and well protected defensive lines.

It's just not realistic, Wagner and Prigorzhin are finished. It's that simple, he tried to grab power, he needed turncoats and didn't get enough.

Ok, thanks. Your explanation of how the land lies on the Ukraine/Belarus border does suggest that an attack from that front is unlikely, if not impossible. I had wondered this.

Also, I do remember hearing reports that Wagner forces had been sent back to base camp in Ukraine, not onto Belarus with Prigorzhin, which, if true, would further knock a hole in the Wagner attack from Belarus theory of the Radio 5 caller.

However, the reports of Wagner forces shooting down 7 Russian aircraft in 24 hours, along with reports of Russian forces targeting Wagner bases doesn't necessarily mean they weren't plotting together, surely? According to Western sources/propaganda, Russia will willingly kill anyone and amount of their own in 'false flag' operations, so why wouldn't colluding leaders, Putin and Prigorzhin, order attacks on their own for tactical purposes in this scenario?

Theory one that I recounted, about Putin coming out stronger because he has tamed an increasingly rogue Wagner group by now having Prigorzhin in exile and large numbers of this troops absorbed in to the Russian army, seems the most plausible of the two theories.

 

[Eric the meek]

Is his army in Ukraine also weaker ? We are led to believe that Wagner are the best they have got. Will they just disappear ? If not, will they be as effective being deployed by pretty useless Russian generals ?

All good valid questions, which I will do my best to answer. My answers are predicated on the assumption that the rebellion was real, and the swift resolution was real.

Is his army in Ukraine also weaker ? Potentially, yes. The command and control structure and discipline, is likely to be less effective. We know it wasn't that effective to begin with.
Will they just disappear? I don't know, but I assume some will be absorbed into the MOD; commanding officers may be arrested and nullified.
Will they be as effective deployed by pretty useless Russian generals? You've answered your own question!

 

[drew]

Oh I think if it were not for the nuclear threat, NATO could take Moscow without breaking sweat if it really wanted to

But Nato wouldn't contemplate that. If they tried, it would validate everything Putin has said and then you would have the whole of Russia against you.

 

[SeagullinExile]

The Tus

Wagner was not forced to go back. There were very limited attacks on the Wagner column as it moved North. The Russian airforce could/should have destroyed the entire convoy but, very few showed up. Most local Russian forces sided with Wagner or stayed put for the day and were waiting to see what happened.

Moscow was there for the taking, a few sandbagged MG posts and lightly armed National Guard forces would not have stopped Wagner. Putin has been shown to be a weak leader with limited support, this is not over and I don't think he has long left.

The Russians have a wee bit more than National Guard units defending Moscow.

 

[peterward]

Ok, thanks. Your explanation of how the land lies on the Ukraine/Belarus border does suggest that an attack from that front is unlikely, if not impossible. I had wondered this.

Also, I do remember hearing reports that Wagner forces had been sent back to base camp in Ukraine, not onto Belarus with Prigorzhin, which, if true, would further knock a hole in the Wagner attack from Belarus theory of the Radio 5 caller.

However, the reports of Wagner forces shooting down 7 Russian aircraft in 24 hours, along with reports of Russian forces targeting Wagner bases doesn't necessarily mean they weren't plotting together, surely? According to Western sources/propaganda, Russia will willingly kill anyone and amount of their own in 'false flag' operations, so why wouldn't colluding leaders, Putin and Prigorzhin, order attacks on their own for tactical purposes in this scenario?

Theory one that I recounted, about Putin coming out stronger because he has tamed an increasingly rogue Wagner group by now having Prigorzhin in exile and large numbers of this troops absorbed in to the Russian army, seems the most plausible of the two theories.

Every successful Russian revolution/ coup has been a small outnumbered group of plotters that rose up, tried to grab power and only succeeded by getting either public or security forces/military changing sides.

Prigorzhins "March for justice" calling others to join him is just the modern day version of centuries old power grabs.

He didn't get the turncoats he needed, Kadyrov stayed loyal as did MOD and FSB, there's multiple reports today on Russian telegram groups that after Wagner shot down the Russian airframes, many Wagner pilots resigned in protest at shooting down Russian aircraft.(how true that is?)

Also likely for all Prigorzins public rants of lack of ammo and needing more "or else", he'd been hording it and plotting for this coup. It wasn't a sporadic event.

Wagner took and fully controlled the maze of salt mines at Soledar 6 months ago (largest in europe), not bad place to stash weapons whilst pleading poverty.


It easy to get caught up in grand plans but in this case I'm confident the easy and obvious explanation of a brazen power grab is correct. He failed where others succeeded as enough people didn't switch sides.

Most Oligarchs like Rotenberg and even Medvedev/Lukashenko definitely did leave and fled, as likely did Putin.

If Wagner wanted to go to Belarus and attack Ukraine over heavily mined and fortified marshland, They could've simply been redeployed, not shot down 7 aircrafts, not had russia blowing up its own fuel storage depots, not had Putin looking weak and ineffectual for hours, snd they would've been in Belarus a coherent fighting unit to try it.

No this was an attempted coup imho that failed and both Wagner and Prigorzhin will pay for it, the latter with his life.

BTW he's ot been seen once since he left in that car from Rostov.

 

[chickens]

I can't see that. A few days ago he was a strong man that you didn't mess with. Prigozhin criticized the military leadership and Putin told Prig what to do. He refused, and marched on Moscow. Putin said he was a traitor, and that he and all his soldiers would be prosecuted.

Putin has now backed down from that. He's not going to prosecute the traitor Prigozhin, and he's not going to prosecute the soldiers either. It's a huge climb down. Of course it's also a huge climb down for Prigozhin, who looks like a complete fool. It's a complete Russian army shambles. When was the last time a proper army marched against itself, bombing itself from the sky, and shooting down it's own aircraft in defence?

Is the result as good as Ukraine would have hoped for? No, it's not. But does Russia look stronger or weaker than they did a few days ago - obviously they look weaker.



They weren't forced back, no force was used. They were persuaded to go back, because Prigozhin didn't actually want to be the leader of Russia, and didn't want to kill other Russians, he just wasn't standing for the treatment he felt he'd had.

I think the question is going to be, will Prigozhin still be alive in 6 months time. I wonder if there’s a market open on it.

Much as Putin’s promised to take no action, he’s gone after spies who defected decades previously. If this isn’t all a ruse to put Prigozhin into Belarus and sneak his troops in to open a new front, then surely either he intends to return on his own terms, or he’s just waiting to see how the FSB get to him.

 

[Dave the OAP]

Not really. Napoleon messed up and Hitler wasn't just at war with Russia, he was at war with the whole world. Invasion of Russia is unviable for 2 reasons: 1) They have nuclear weapons - 2) The countries of Nato have no desire to invade and take over other countries. If marching into Moscow was the goal and Russia didn't have nukes, it would be a piece of piss.






Change will come because Putin won't live forever, and the next leader (probably also a mafia boss) will want their own legacy. Their goal of taking over other countries will likely not change, but they will respond to force, and if Ukraine win and join Nato, then that's the end of any expansion goals there.

Well my opinion is how I have set it out. you have yours I have mine.

 

[Dave the OAP]

That's a myth/legend.

A convoy of limited numbers just got all the way to within 200km of Moscow, virtually unopposed.

I've no doubt if it were Ukrainians or other foreigners, resistance would be stiffer, but just like Russias fearsome military or its unbeatable Hypersonic missiles it often all guff and bollocks in reality.

The Russian winter, combined with American lend lease and UK supplying key Intel from cracked enigma of German postions/plans all contributed to German defeat, no US leandlease and no UK Intel Russia probably wouldn't have won.

Cool fairytale of invincible Russians though.

Hardly a fairytale Is it.
millions have died trying to invade Russia in the past.
we must learn from the past.

 

[A1X]

But Nato wouldn't contemplate that. If they tried, it would validate everything Putin has said and then you would have the whole of Russia against you.

I agree, I don’t see it happening in a million years. But it’s nevertheless true.

 

[peterward]

Ok, thanks. Your explanation of how the land lies on the Ukraine/Belarus border does suggest that an attack from that front is unlikely, if not impossible. I had wondered this.

Also, I do remember hearing reports that Wagner forces had been sent back to base camp in Ukraine, not onto Belarus with Prigorzhin, which, if true, would further knock a hole in the Wagner attack from Belarus theory of the Radio 5 caller.

However, the reports of Wagner forces shooting down 7 Russian aircraft in 24 hours, along with reports of Russian forces targeting Wagner bases doesn't necessarily mean they weren't plotting together, surely? According to Western sources/propaganda, Russia will willingly kill anyone and amount of their own in 'false flag' operations, so why wouldn't colluding leaders, Putin and Prigorzhin, order attacks on their own for tactical purposes in this scenario?

Theory one that I recounted, about Putin coming out stronger because he has tamed an increasingly rogue Wagner group by now having Prigorzhin in exile and large numbers of this troops absorbed in to the Russian army, seems the most plausible of the two theories.

Every successful Russian revolution/ coup has been a small outnumbered group of plotters that rose up, tried to grab power and only succeeded by getting either public or security forces/military changing sides.

Prigorzhins "March for justice" calling others to join him is just the modern day version of centuries old power grabs.

He didn't get the turncoat he needed, Kadyrov stayed loyal as did MOD and FSB, there's multiple reports today on Russian telegram groups that after Wagner shot down the Russian airframes, many Wagner pilots resigned in protest at shooting down Russian aircraft.(how true that is?)

Also likely for all Prigorzins public rants of lack of ammoand needing more "or else", he'd been hording it and plotting for this coup. It wasn't a sporadic event.

Wagner took and fully controlled the maze of salt mines at Soledar 6 months ago (largest in europe), not bad place to stash weapons whilst pleading poverty.


It easy to get caught up in grand plans but in this case I'm confident the easy and obvious explanation of a brazen power grab is correct. He failed where others succeeded as enough people didn't switch sides.

Most Oligarchs like Rotenbery and even Medvedev/Lukashenko definitely did leave and fled, as likely did Putin.

If Wagner wanted to go to Belarus and attack Ukrine over heavily mined and fortified marshland, They could've simply been redeployed, not forced into MOD few weeks back and would still be a coherent fighting unit to try.

No this was attempted coup that failed and both Wagner and Prigorzhin will pay for it, the latter with his life.

BTW he's not been seen once since he left in that car from Rostov.

 

[sparkie]

My guess is that Prigozhin is now in hiding - he's made his mark as the tough ( and reasonable! ) man to succeed Putin - and will reappear on the scene when Putin croaks.

 

[Triggaaar]

I think the question is going to be, will Prigozhin still be alive in 6 months time.

He may still be fighting the war in 6 months. But if he goes, I imagine Putin will remove him at some point.

 

[vegster]

The Tus

The Russians have a wee bit more than National Guard units defending Moscow.

Not much turned up though. They were using diggers to make the road to Moscow impassable, also, abandoning trucks and cars on main routes. Lots of government and private planes left for St.Petersberg too. Not a ringing endorsement for Putin.

 

[SeagullinExile]

Not much turned up though. They were using diggers to make the road to Moscow impassable, also, abandoning trucks and cars on main routes. Lots of government and private planes left for St.Petersberg too. Not a ringing endorsement for Putin.

They only got to 200 miles from Moscow, it would of been very different if they reached the suburbs. The defence of Moscow is traditionally down to the 1st Guards Tank Army. They were decimated at the battle of Kharkiv, but have now been re-deployed. On top of that, you’ll have the elite guards divisions fiercely loyal to Putin. It would of been a blood bath, hence a deal being struck to avoid any conflict.

 

[Triggaaar]

There's multiple reports today on Russian telegram groups that after Wagner shot down the Russian airframes, many Wagner pilots resigned in protest at shooting down Russian aircraft.(how true that is?)

Probably as truthful of most information coming from the dictatorship. If they were just shooting down aircraft for no reason, then sure, but they were being attacked from the air, so they were hardly likely to not return fire.

Also likely for all Prigorzins public rants of lack of ammo and needing more "or else", he'd been hording it and plotting for this coup

If he had been hording in preparation, then it seems even more odd that he turned away from Moscow without a fight.

 

[Triggaaar]

Hardly a fairytale Is it.
millions have died trying to invade Russia in the past.
we must learn from the past.

Why must we learn from that, we have no intention of invading Russia?

 

[Machiavelli]

My guess is that Prigozhin is now in hiding - he's made his mark as the tough ( and reasonable! ) man to succeed Putin - and will reappear on the scene when Putin croaks.

Someone said on R4 today that it's likely that he'll be off to Africa, where Wagner are very active. Can't see him staying long in Belarus.

 

[SeagullinExile]

Why must we learn from that, we have no intention of invading Russia?

Indeed. Let’s be honest, Russia could wipe our island out in minutes if they wanted to.

 

[Triggaaar]

Indeed. Let’s be honest, Russia could wipe our island out in minutes if they wanted to.

Well they could wipe out the US and China too 'if they wanted to'. But they need to ask themselves, 'are they ready to die?'

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

Indeed. Let’s be honest, Russia could wipe our island out in minutes if they wanted to.

That's the whole point of NATO.

It's a defence pact.