[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[The Clamp]

He may still be fighting the war in 6 months. But if he goes, I imagine Putin will remove him at some point.

If this was all real, Prig is a dead man walking. I doubt he’ll make it through the next couple of months.

 

[SeagullinExile]

Well they could wipe out the US and China too 'if they wanted to'. But they need to ask themselves, 'are they ready to die?'

Well exactly. The whole point of a nuclear deterrent tbf.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Not much turned up though. They were using diggers to make the road to Moscow impassable, also, abandoning trucks and cars on main routes. Lots of government and private planes left for St.Petersberg too. Not a ringing endorsement for Putin.

Presumably all claiming pre booked holidays now.. Quite a contrast with the Ukrainian leadership who stayed in Kiev and were prepared to fight and die for their way of life.

 

[SeagullinExile]

That's the whole point of NATO.

It's a defence pact.

Correct. But not really relevant to what I posted. Sure, NATO would come to our defence, but it wouldn’t really matter as the UK would be gone...completely.

 

[jcdenton08]

Correct. But not really relevant to what I posted. Sure, NATO would come to our defence, but it wouldn’t really matter as the UK would be gone...completely.

Mutually assured destruction is the best/only option though.

 

[SeagullinExile]

Mutually assured destruction is the best/only option though.

Exactly. The whole point of a nuclear deterrent!

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Correct. But not really relevant to what I posted. Sure, NATO would come to our defence, but it wouldn’t really matter as the UK would be gone...completely.

Moscow would also be gone completely. Which is why it will never happen.

 

[peterward]

Probably as truthful of most information coming from the dictatorship. If they were just shooting down aircraft for no reason, then sure, but they were being attacked from the air, so they were hardly likely to not return fire.




If he had been hording in preparation, then it seems even more odd that he turned away from Moscow without a fight.

Not really.

There's been many coups and revolutions in Russia and in every single one, the plotters have had considerably less power or chances as the incumbent authorities and have only succeeded with people turning allegiance, was true of the Bolsheviks as it was for Prigorzhin.

Plot, start and hope for turncoats or overwhelming public support.

Or else coup fails

 

[SeagullinExile]

Moscow would also be gone completely. Which is why it will never happen.

You can’t say it’ll never happen. Nobody knows that. All it takes is one lunatic with nothing to lose. And as the world is generally run by psychopaths, I’d say the chances of it happening are greater than people think.

 

[peterward]

Correct. But not really relevant to what I posted. Sure, NATO would come to our defence, but it wouldn’t really matter as the UK would be gone...completely.

That isn't necessarily so. Nuclear missiles are still just that, missiles.

With active radar and good missile defence, which UK has...... means Russia may well fire missiles at London, but it doesn't guarantee London gets nuked.and certainly not that it will.be gone completely.

Their nuclear warheads will be delivered in their missiles, which are being fired nightly at kyiv with ballistic warheads and all being shot down.

Moreover, Russia even tries to use nukes, they'll lose every present partner they still have, inc China who doesn't want nuclear holocaust.

 

[SeagullinExile]

That isn't necessarily so. Nuclear missiles are still just that, missiles.

With active radar and good missile defence, which UK has...... means Russia may well fire missiles at London, but it doesn't guarantee London gets nuked.and certainly not that it will.be gone completely.

Their nuclear warheads will be delivered in their missiles, which are being fired nightly at kyiv with ballistic warheads and all being shot down.

Moreover, Russia even tries to use nukes, they'll lose every present partner they still have, inc China who doesn't want nuclear holocaust.

Not with MIRV’s being used as a delivery system. The chances of intercept are very small.

 

[Triggaaar]

Not really.

There's been many coups and revolutions in Russia and in every single one, the plotters have had considerably less power or chances as the incumbent authorities and have only succeeded with people turning allegiance, was true of the Bolsheviks as it was for Prigorzhin.

Plot, start and hope for turncoats or overwhelming public support.

Or else coup fails

In which case he wouldn't have needed to stockpile weapons

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

You can’t say it’ll never happen. Nobody knows that. All it takes is one lunatic with nothing to lose. And as the world is generally run by psychopaths, I’d say the chances of it happening are greater than people think.

That lunatic with his finger on their nuclear button would still exist if we had no nuclear weapons so it’s not really a better option to get rid of them (I know you aren’t arguing for that by the way).

 

[Russconha]

What an unexpected plot twist. One thing it shows is if the West wanted to it could pretty much hop, skip and jump an army from Ukraine all the way to Moscow. Ever since the Mongols sacked Moscow in the 13th century, Russia has sought to protect Moscow by expanding its borders to make it difficult for enemy armies to get so far (see Napoleon, the entire German 6th army etc ...). NATO has no intention of going that far but after having up to 190,000 soldiers on the border before the invasion, a relatively small army of 25,000 mutinous mercenaries waltzing through the country will likely force Putin to play a powerful hand.

Oh I think if it were not for the nuclear threat, NATO could take Moscow without breaking sweat if it really wanted to

 

[sparkie]

Has Putin said anything since yesterday ?

 

[Lethargic]

Not with MIRV’s being used as a delivery system. The chances of intercept are very small.

That's why the UKs primary deterrent is sub based not land based, a strike on the UK would still result in retaliation even if our island was wiped out. Not great for us I grant you but also not great for most of western Russia.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Has Putin said anything since yesterday ?

Having his final moments with Prigozhin before he ends him?

 

[raymondo]

I can't see that. A few days ago he was a strong man that you didn't mess with. Prigozhin criticized the military leadership and Putin told Prig what to do. He refused, and marched on Moscow. Putin said he was a traitor, and that he and all his soldiers would be prosecuted.

Putin has now backed down from that. He's not going to prosecute the traitor Prigozhin, and he's not going to prosecute the soldiers either. It's a huge climb down. Of course it's also a huge climb down for Prigozhin, who looks like a complete fool. It's a complete Russian army shambles. When was the last time a proper army marched against itself, bombing itself from the sky, and shooting down it's own aircraft in defence?

Is the result as good as Ukraine would have hoped for? No, it's not. But does Russia look stronger or weaker than they did a few days ago - obviously they look weaker.



They weren't forced back, no force was used. They were persuaded to go back, because Prigozhin didn't actually want to be the leader of Russia, and didn't want to kill other Russians, he just wasn't standing for the treatment he felt he'd had.

Yes... or possibly the family of Prig or other Wagner leaders had guns pointed at their heads

 

[Triggaaar]

Yes... or possibly the family of Prig or other Wagner leaders had guns pointed at their heads

It would be a bit odd if they didn't anticipate that to be honest.

 

[raymondo]

It would be a bit odd if they didn't anticipate that to be honest.

It would, yes, but there were reports of FSB raiding homes of Wagnerites. True or not?... I have no idea