[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[driddles]

I have heard a lot about this spring/summer offensive being about huge gains for Ukraine or even the end of the war.
Apart from a few villages gained, there hasn't been major gains.
Early days I guess, but it seems Russia has learned from its disastrous start to the compaign and is changing tactics against a weoponised USA/NATO country against it.

Ukraine is softening the enemy by hitting weapon stores, fuel depots, and command posts behind the lines, then add in badly damaging one of the main bridges to Crimea overnight.

Important work to be done before they commit too many troops and too much heavy equipment, the huge majority of which has been held back (I read the other day that about 80% of the newly trained troops and equipment is still being kept well clear).

Then add in the apparent change that has been made to Ukrainian Migs so they now seem very capable of destroying russian KA-52 attack helicopters (dropping at an alarming rate and russia does not have that many)

Then add in the 6 billion dollar accounting error the US made, which now means the US can send another 6 billion in weapons without needing to go to congress and Ukraine is in great shape. Won't be quick, won't be easy... won't be impossible.

 

[Weststander]

I have heard a lot about this spring/summer offensive being about huge gains for Ukraine or even the end of the war.
Apart from a few villages gained, there hasn't been major gains.
Early days I guess, but it seems Russia has learned from its disastrous start to the compaign and is changing tactics against a weoponised USA/NATO country against it.

Covered in full in the R4 link, Zelenskyy never said that, instead “It’s not Hollywood”.

Just lazy journalists, or armchair Brits who impatiently want the ‘agony’ they suffer from the lounge to be over. Russia started this genocide and illegal war with a vastly larger military. This will take years.

All Russia have done over the last 6 months is lose countless 10,000’s of men pointlessly over Bakhmut, while Ukraine cleverly held back numbers, and dig lines of WW1-esque trenches. The onus is now on Ukraine, who again cleverly aren’t being tricked into throwing cannon fodder.

 

[Weststander]

Ukraine is softening the enemy by hitting weapon stores, fuel depots, and command posts behind the lines, then add in badly damaging one of the main bridges to Crimea overnight.

Important work to be done before they commit too many troops and too much heavy equipment, the huge majority of which has been held back (I read the other day that about 80% of the newly trained troops and equipment is still being kept well clear).

Then add in the apparent change that has been made to Ukrainian Migs so they now seem very capable of destroying russian KA-52 attack helicopters (dropping at an alarming rate and russia does not have that many)

Then add in the 6 billion dollar accounting error the US made, which now means the US can send another 6 billion in weapons without needing to go to congress and Ukraine is in great shape. Won't be quick, won't be easy... won't be impossible.

Interestingly Ukrainians in hit Leopard tanks (a grand total of two lost) and Bradley fighting vehicles, survive. Whilst the Russians inferior hardware leads to a loss of trained crew.

 

[raymondo]

 

[raymondo]

Bridge wasn't destroyed...but Ukraine demonstrated they can hit it when they want.

 

[Happy Exile]

I can believe 100% that Russia is considering it, and will have tentative plans to carry it out. As already said, Russia must have been warned by the US/NATO of the consequences if they do so ().
Just to remind all that even if the prevailing wind was a Westerly (heading toward Russia) it would pass directly over sovereign Ukrainian territory and civilians.
Also lets remember that, according to many reports, the Russians f*cked up their explosion of the Kakhovka dam, their intention possibly to have been less damage (I don't know the truth of this). They are therefore quite able to f*ck up an attack on the nuclear power station.

I don't know if they hoped for less damage but they didn't think through the consequences - there are credible reports of a worsening cholera outbreak in parts of the Russian army because the dam being blown up has affected their supply of drinking water.

 

[raymondo]

Could be quite serious structural damage

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

To me, all of this shows that properly taking down a large bridge with missiles is very hard / impossible. They just penetrate the road part, leaving a bit of a mess yes, but I'm not sure how much this will disrupt logistics. Putin won't care that the health and safety of his truck drivers is compromised, he'll have them driving over on the other side already if I had to guess.

To properly take it down, you need to really be there and set charges

 

[Lethargic]

I have heard a lot about this spring/summer offensive being about huge gains for Ukraine or even the end of the war.
Apart from a few villages gained, there hasn't been major gains.
Early days I guess, but it seems Russia has learned from its disastrous start to the compaign and is changing tactics against a weoponised USA/NATO country against it.

Too many journalists have portrayed the spring offensive as this single event akin to the over the top from the trenches as in WW1. It is not like that in reality more of a change of direction and tactics. You might see some significant events but in general its a lot more subtle with a lot of the action shrouded in secrecy. In simple terms they are poking at the Russian line to find weaknesses where future larger scale attacks could occur, also playing the psychological game as much as a physical one.

War can be incredibly complex and the Ukrainians are proving to be excellent in the management of their campaign, they value their people and are not looking to waste resources unlike the Russians.

 

[Lethargic]

Could be quite serious structural damage

Cutting the land bridge to Crimea , ties up with the increased resistance at Melitopol.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

Could be quite serious structural damage

 

[sparkie]

I have heard a lot about this spring/summer offensive being about huge gains for Ukraine or even the end of the war.
Apart from a few villages gained, there hasn't been major gains.
Early days I guess, but it seems Russia has learned from its disastrous start to the compaign and is changing tactics against a weoponised USA/NATO country against it.

I wouldn't begin to draw conclusions about the Ukrainian offensive until the end of August.

I suspect ( guess ) that Russia blowing the dam changed plans as well. The sun baking the exposed Dnipro river bed could open many more undefended options once the mud is solid - which weren't in the original plan.

If Melitopol and Berdiansk are liberated by Aug 31st it'll be job well done before a pause to regroup and go again when the F16s arrive.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I wouldn't begin to draw conclusions about the Ukrainian offensive until the end of August.

I suspect ( guess ) that Russia blowing the dam changed plans as well. The sun baking the exposed Dnipro river bed could open many more undefended options once the mud is solid - which weren't in the original plan.

If Melitopol and Berdiansk are liberated by Aug 31st it'll be job well done before a pause to regroup and go again when the F16s arrive.

That would be a fantastic outcome. But as others have said, they are much more concerned with retaining men and material rather than timescales.

The Dnipro river bed is another interesting one. I've read conflicting reports about whether soil which has held water for that long will be able to support heavy armour after one summer of sun. In any case, complete aerial dominance will be required to cover that sort of distance in the summer.

 

[peterward]

He's back.

 

[Eric the meek]

The future security of Ukraine is in the news:

'For peace and stability in Europe, we must bring Ukraine into NATO, there is no other solution'

OP-ED. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former NATO secretary general, and Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff to the Ukrainian president, state that Ukraine's integration into the Euro-Atlantic security architecture is in the interests of all NATO allies.

www.lemonde.fr

'Faced with a revanchist Russia, neutrality provides no security.'

Putin went into Ukraine to de-militarise it to provide a buffer between NATO and Russia. Instead, Ukraine militarised it and it looks like it will be joining NATO.
We all make mistakes, but Putin does seem to have an awful lot of bad luck.

 

[raymondo]

He's back.

He'll be asking Kyiv for asylum very soon...

 

[Eric the meek]

He's back.

Again, Putin is absolved of any blame.

Again, he points the finger at the Russian MOD for mistakes made, and most definitely not Putin.
But this time, he goes further. This time, he portrays Putin - and the Russian people - as the ones who have been deceived. It's very noticeable.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

He's back.

Here Prighozhin goes further than he ever has gone before.

He does not intend to give up his army, that much is clear. But it's hard to see what his strategy is. His men, as far as we can tell, are loyal to him. But he's totally reliant on Russia for supplies and money. If he refuses to hand over his men and they refuse to sign by next week, we reach an incredible impasse.

The golden case scenario is that he decides to turn his forces around and march to Moscow, Putin is then forced to pull back from Ukraine to defend, then those two are left to bumfight in western Russia. It seems highly improbable that he could convince his men to do this, but could it be that's what the videos are about? To prepare the ground for such a move?

If he loses his army, he not only loses all power, but is likely to be killed very soon.

The important thing to remember, is that whatever is going to happen will happen next week. The Kremlin will surely turn off the taps of money and equipment if Wagner don't comply and it's now or never for Prig.

To be clear, my money is on a Kremlin climbdown and Wagner to continue as normal. But that outside chance of civil war is keeping me very interested in developments.

 

[raymondo]

The future security of Ukraine is in the news:

'For peace and stability in Europe, we must bring Ukraine into NATO, there is no other solution'

OP-ED. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former NATO secretary general, and Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff to the Ukrainian president, state that Ukraine's integration into the Euro-Atlantic security architecture is in the interests of all NATO allies.

www.lemonde.fr

'Faced with a revanchist Russia, neutrality provides no security.'

Putin went into Ukraine to de-militarise it to provide a buffer between NATO and Russia. Instead, Ukraine militarised it and it looks like it will be joining NATO.
We all make mistakes, but Putin does seem to have an awful lot of bad luck.

I think Putin went in with more than a goal to de-militarise Ukraine, shirley? He would have militarised it Russian style (if he could), and he's quite happy to commit genocide on the way. Maybe the genocide was a spiteful after thought when it became clear Ukraine was resisting.

 

[Gabbiano]

That would be a fantastic outcome. But as others have said, they are much more concerned with retaining men and material rather than timescales.

The Dnipro river bed is another interesting one. I've read conflicting reports about whether soil which has held water for that long will be able to support heavy armour after one summer of sun. In any case, complete aerial dominance will be required to cover that sort of distance in the summer.

Also remembering that even if the mud flats are traversable they are huge, open and exposed. Perfect for the defenders to just pick the attackers off as they charge.

Not convinced it’s a viable option for anything major.