[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

Here Prighozhin goes further than he ever has gone before.

He does not intend to give up his army, that much is clear. But it's hard to see what his strategy is. His men, as far as we can tell, are loyal to him. But he's totally reliant on Russia for supplies and money. If he refuses to hand over his men and they refuse to sign by next week, we reach an incredible impasse.

The golden case scenario is that he decides to turn his forces around and march to Moscow, Putin is then forced to pull back from Ukraine to defend, then those two are left to bumfight in western Russia. It seems highly improbable that he could convince his men to do this, but could it be that's what the videos are about? To prepare the ground for such a move?

If he loses his army, he not only loses all power, but is likely to be killed very soon.

The important thing to remember, is that whatever is going to happen will happen next week. The Kremlin will surely turn off the taps of money and equipment if Wagner don't comply and it's now or never for Prig.

To be clear, my money is on a Kremlin climbdown and Wagner to continue as normal. But that outside chance of civil war is keeping me very interested in developments.

I think your final para is right...a compromise climbdown... no losers (except Shoigu's face maybe).

 

[Eric the meek]

I think Putin went in with more than a goal to de-militarise Ukraine, shirley? He would have militarised it Russian style (if he could), and he's quite happy to commit genocide on the way. Maybe the genocide was a spiteful after thought when it became clear Ukraine was resisting.

Absolutely. I was writing from the perspective of Putin's stated objectives, one of which was de-militarisation of Ukraine.

But even on that measure, he has failed to achieve his own stated, strategic objective - completely and utterly. Indeed, he has achieved the polar opposite of his stated objective.

He is now doing his best to avoid any and all blame for the wider disaster now unfolding before us. Get the popcorn out.

 

[Happy Exile]

Here Prighozhin goes further than he ever has gone before.

He does not intend to give up his army, that much is clear. But it's hard to see what his strategy is. His men, as far as we can tell, are loyal to him. But he's totally reliant on Russia for supplies and money. If he refuses to hand over his men and they refuse to sign by next week, we reach an incredible impasse.

The golden case scenario is that he decides to turn his forces around and march to Moscow, Putin is then forced to pull back from Ukraine to defend, then those two are left to bumfight in western Russia. It seems highly improbable that he could convince his men to do this, but could it be that's what the videos are about? To prepare the ground for such a move?

If he loses his army, he not only loses all power, but is likely to be killed very soon.

The important thing to remember, is that whatever is going to happen will happen next week. The Kremlin will surely turn off the taps of money and equipment if Wagner don't comply and it's now or never for Prig.

To be clear, my money is on a Kremlin climbdown and Wagner to continue as normal. But that outside chance of civil war is keeping me very interested in developments.

It reads to me like he is laying the ground for Putin to blame his military and withdraw...or heavily implying a leader who is so deceived isn't fit to lead. Whatever it is it's a curious development.

 

[raymondo]

Absolutely. I was writing from the perspective of Putin's stated objectives, one of which was de-militarisation of Ukraine.

But even on that measure, he has failed to achieve his own stated, strategic objective - completely and utterly. Indeed, he has achieved the polar opposite of his stated objective.

He is now doing his best to avoid any and all blame for the wider disaster now unfolding before us. Get the popcorn out.

Yes, that's true

 

[raymondo]

It reads to me like he is laying the ground for Putin to blame his military and withdraw...or heavily implying a leader who is so deceived isn't fit to lead. Whatever it is it's a curious development.

Yes, I felt the former on first watching the video: 'Russian military advice to Putin was all wrong... now here's a partial withdrawal as a gesture of goodwill' etc etc.
It's hard to judge the lay of the land - only their actions will show us, not their words.

 

[Taybha]

Page 576 update.

Still a Cun*

 

[driddles]

US introduces bipartisan bill to invoke NATO Article 5 if russia launches nukes or attacks Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, if they do they will be at war with NATO and destroyed (sorry I only have a Reddit link)

 

[sparkie]

 

[sparkie]

Shoigu being setup as the fall guy. The narrative is to absolve Putin from blame.



I guess Shoigu is going to be arrested pretty soon.

 

[Baldseagull]

Shoigu being setup as the fall guy. The narrative is to absolve Putin from blame.



I guess Shoigu is going to be arrested pretty soon.

I read him moaning about attacks on bridges in Crimea not being responded to by Russia with enough force. He said something like, "We don't have red lines, we have brown streaks in our underpants"

 

[raymondo]

US introduces bipartisan bill to invoke NATO Article 5 if russia launches nukes or attacks Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, if they do they will be at war with NATO and destroyed (sorry I only have a Reddit link)

Thanks so much for posting this . It's a big deal, and very welcome - I imagine the timing of this announcement may have been triggered by Zelensky's address a few days ago saying they had intelligence that Russia has plans to attack the power station (?).

 

[Triggaaar]

Putin went into Ukraine to de-militarise it to provide a buffer between NATO and Russia.

Are you just recapping what they claimed, or is that your opinion?

 

[raymondo]

Are you just recapping what they claimed, or is that your opinion?

Discussed in post 11,505 I think

 

[sparkie]

On the contrary, Putin went into Ukraine to do what the Russian Empire has always done - conquer a population, assimilate it and then use that population to expand its own army and conquer other lands.

In fact he would militarize Ukraine, not de-militarize it. Ukrainians in the Russian army would be then used to attack, say, Kazakhstan or even the Baltics / Poland.

Same as it has always been with Muscovy.

 

[peterward]

He's back.

Translated.

 

[Triggaaar]

Here Prighozhin goes further than he ever has gone before.

He does not intend to give up his army, that much is clear. But it's hard to see what his strategy is. His men, as far as we can tell, are loyal to him. But he's totally reliant on Russia for supplies and money. If he refuses to hand over his men and they refuse to sign by next week, we reach an incredible impasse.

The golden case scenario is that he decides to turn his forces around and march to Moscow, Putin is then forced to pull back from Ukraine to defend, then those two are left to bumfight in western Russia. It seems highly improbable that he could convince his men to do this, but could it be that's what the videos are about? To prepare the ground for such a move?

If he loses his army, he not only loses all power, but is likely to be killed very soon.

I agree that handing over his army is basically suicide for Prigozhin, so he can't do that. Neither he nor Putin can afford a war with each other, so I'm guessing Putin has no choice but to allow him to continue as he is.

The important thing to remember, is that whatever is going to happen will happen next week. The Kremlin will surely turn off the taps of money and equipment if Wagner don't comply and it's now or never for Prig.

I don't think Putin can do that, because as above, if Prigozhin accepts the new terms, he's in too much danger. And Putin can't afford to have an ally without ammo. It'l be interesting to see though.

To be clear, my money is on a Kremlin climbdown and Wagner to continue as normal.

Same.

 

[peterward]

Here Prighozhin goes further than he ever has gone before.

He does not intend to give up his army, that much is clear. But it's hard to see what his strategy is. His men, as far as we can tell, are loyal to him. But he's totally reliant on Russia for supplies and money. If he refuses to hand over his men and they refuse to sign by next week, we reach an incredible impasse.

The golden case scenario is that he decides to turn his forces around and march to Moscow, Putin is then forced to pull back from Ukraine to defend, then those two are left to bumfight in western Russia. It seems highly improbable that he could convince his men to do this, but could it be that's what the videos are about? To prepare the ground for such a move?

If he loses his army, he not only loses all power, but is likely to be killed very soon.

The important thing to remember, is that whatever is going to happen will happen next week. The Kremlin will surely turn off the taps of money and equipment if Wagner don't comply and it's now or never for Prig.

To be clear, my money is on a Kremlin climbdown and Wagner to continue as normal. But that outside chance of civil war is keeping me very interested in developments.

Just posted translated video above.

But something I've seen doing the rounds is he's now laying blame on Shoigu and greedy elites who wanted to plunder Ukraine in a war based on lies. And both Shoigu and these Oligargic elites have been deceiving Putin.

Of course that's not true and Putin is squarely behind his failed land grab and genocide, but it's an interesting perspective, as Prigorzhin is laying blame at Shoigu and other elites door (and not Putin)

 

[Eric the meek]

Discussed in post 11,505 I think

Indeed. I should have been clearer the first time.

 

[peterward]

 

[Triggaaar]

But something I've seen doing the rounds is he's now laying blame on Shoigu and greedy elites who wanted to plunder Ukraine in a war based on lies.

That's as made up as the the idea that Russia were clearing Ukraine of Nazis etc. The elites had nothing to do with it, this is all on Putin. But understandably, it's safer for Russians (and their groupies) to criticise everyone except Putin.

Of course that's not true and Putin is squarely behind his failed land grab and genocide, but it's an interesting perspective, as Prigorzhin is laying blame at Shoigu and other elites door (and not Putin)

Agreed that it's not true, but it's not an interesting perspective, it's an obvious self-preserving lie.