[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Nobby]

Russia is run by a Mafia

Chop the head off and it grows another one

The West gains by the infighting and the weakening of the Russian state

But they are a nuclear power - if Putin gets pushed in to a corner - let’s hope that there are still controls on the red button pushing.

 

[Eric the meek]

This is nuts and shows the fracturing within Russian ranks.

Prigorzhin and Wagner just posted a video where they've taken the commander of the Russian 72nd battalion hostage (72nd were the main Russian army unit fighting in Bakhmut with Wagner), clearly beaten him and made him confess to acting against Wagner.

Fascist former Russian commander of the Donetsk peoples Republic Igor Ghirkin is calling for Prigorzhin immediate arrest.

It must be hugely embarrassing for Putin. Hopefully this will be the beginning of the internal in-fighting/fracturing.

the civilian head of a private mercenary group has taken hostage a commander of the official Russian army, beaten him snd published video!

shirley this can only end for Prigorzhin with either him over throwing Putin or more likely his own assassination?

Yes, it is nuts, which is why I suspect it is true.

Nevertheless, we should remain cautious just in case it is all some kind of elaborate deception. The Russians will be doing anything and everything to delay and distract from the Ukrainian counter offensive.

The question on my mind is not how it will end for Prigozhin (who knows?), but why is he still alive?
If Putin wanted to kill him, why hasn't he already done so? Doesn't he feel able to? Or does Putin recognise Prigozhin's military strength and leave him alone?

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Yes, it is nuts, which is why I suspect it is true.

Nevertheless, we should remain cautious just in case it is all some kind of elaborate deception. The Russians will be doing anything and everything to delay and distract from the Ukrainian counter offensive.

The question on my mind is not how it will end for Prigozhin (who knows?), but why is he still alive?
If Putin wanted to kill him, why hasn't he already done so? Doesn't he feel able to? Or does Putin recognise Prigozhin's military strength and leave him alone?

Just from the reading that i've done, a year to 6 months ago Prigozhin was a nobody in Moscow circles, someone they can use and dispose of when necessary.

But everything has changed. The Russian forces are now spread so thin, Putin can't hope to go and arrest him. Wagner is increasingly a personality cult and the possibility that he could turn around and head into Russia to take power, whilst still small, is now conceivable, meaning even more reserves have to be held in Russia

His popularity is on the rise, mainly because he's the only provider of good news and the only one who is actually there, actually communicating, speaking plausibly and acting like an actual leader.

 

[Eric the meek]

Just from the reading that i've done, a year to 6 months ago Prigozhin was a nobody in Moscow circles, someone they can use and dispose of when necessary.

But everything has changed. The Russian forces are now spread so thin, Putin can't hope to go and arrest him. Wagner is increasingly a personality cult and the possibility that he could turn around and head into Russia to take power, whilst still small, is now conceivable, meaning even more reserves have to be held in Russia

His popularity is on the rise, mainly because he's the only provider of good news and the only one who is actually there, actually communicating, speaking plausibly and acting like an actual leader.

I wonder if the reason that Prigozhin is still alive, is because he is Putin's backstop. It may be a belated, forlorn attempt by Putin to cover his backside.

PMC Wagner has served to distance Putin from the worst excesses of this war, and other conflicts, at least in Putin's mind.

If he is ever brought before The Hague, Putin's MO could be to blame the war crimes on Wagner and Prigozhin. The longer Prigozhin is kept alive, any and all future war crimes can be blamed on him, as well as war crimes in the past.

As Russia descends into in-fighting between various factions, we can probably expect a lot of finger pointing and blame shifting.

 

[peterward]

Yes, it is nuts, which is why I suspect it is true.

Nevertheless, we should remain cautious just in case it is all some kind of elaborate deception. The Russians will be doing anything and everything to delay and distract from the Ukrainian counter offensive.

The question on my mind is not how it will end for Prigozhin (who knows?), but why is he still alive?
If Putin wanted to kill him, why hasn't he already done so? Doesn't he feel able to? Or does Putin recognise Prigozhin's military strength and leave him alone?

Well if history is anything to go by, whilst he (and Wagner) have some value to Putin, he'll stay alive but once that value disappears he'll be killed....

Many of the senior battalion commanders of the Donetsk and Lughasnk peoples Republics, who had usefulness during the land grab, were all later taken out by the FSB.

Motorola head of Sparta battalion and Givi, who spearheaded battalions later killed in bomb attacks as was the DNR leader Alexander Zacharchenko, who met a bomb on visiting his favourite Donetsk cafe.

Putin uses, when he's used and can no longer find usefulness he disposes.

That said Igor Ghirkin has lived and openly criticises both the war effort and leadership, but he's now not much more than a fascist blogger with no real power or position.

Prigorzhin with his private army is a threat and will meet a bomb, window or spiced tea in the not too distant.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Well if history is anything to go by, whilst he (and Wagner) have some value to Putin, he'll stay alive but once that value disappears he'll be killed....

Many of the senior battalion commanders of the Donetsk and Lughasnk peoples Republics, who had usefulness during the land grab, were all later taken out by the FSB.

Motorola head of Sparta battalion and Givi, who spearheaded battalions later killed in bomb attacks as was the DNR leader Alexander Zacharchenko, who met a bomb on visiting his favourite Donetsk cafe.

Putin uses, when he's used and can no longer find usefulness he disposes.

That said Igor Ghirkin has lived and openly criticises both the war effort and leadership, but he's now not much more than a fascist blogger with no real power or position.

Prigorzhin with his private army is a threat and will meet a bomb, window or spiced tea in the not too distant.

I just wonder if the balance of power has shifted now.

Putin can't even stop lightly armed militias taking Russian territory. He can't now take on a private army. Not whilst his entire military is trying to defend 100s of miles of front. Some sort of assassination, as you suggest, seems more likely, but I'm not sure he can get to him now. Prighozin isn't going for tea in the Kremlin any time soon. He's not as stupid as Lukashenko. And I'm not sure if Putin has the resources any more to carry out this sort of assassination. And what if it fails?

Putin has a massive dilemma.

 

[timbha]

I just wonder if the balance of power has shifted now.

Putin can't even stop lightly armed militias taking Russian territory. He can't now take on a private army. Not whilst his entire military is trying to defend 100s of miles of front. Some sort of assassination, as you suggest, seems more likely, but I'm not sure he can get to him now. Prighozin isn't going for tea in the Kremlin any time soon. He's not as stupid as Lukashenko. And I'm not sure if Putin has the resources any more to carry out this sort of assassination. And what if it fails?

Putin has a massive dilemma.

Very well put.

 

[A1X]

The latter is the more likely ending I think...unless Putin is enjoying the infighting for now (??).

Hitler always enjoyed pitching his underlings against each other to compete for things because it meant they spent their time fighting each other and not him. It's very good for keeping hold of power yourself, but it's a terrible way for dealing with waging a war when you need all your various military branches pulling together. The Allies worked this out in 1942, and if you don't want to see the results look away now...

 

[raymondo]

I just wonder if the balance of power has shifted now.

Putin can't even stop lightly armed militias taking Russian territory. He can't now take on a private army. Not whilst his entire military is trying to defend 100s of miles of front. Some sort of assassination, as you suggest, seems more likely, but I'm not sure he can get to him now. Prighozin isn't going for tea in the Kremlin any time soon. He's not as stupid as Lukashenko. And I'm not sure if Putin has the resources any more to carry out this sort of assassination. And what if it fails?

Putin has a massive dilemma.

The more massive dilemmas (dilemmae )he has, the more likely he'll make wrong calls...

 

[raymondo]

"Some sort of assassination, as you suggest, seems more likely, but I'm not sure he can get to him now. Prighozin isn't going for tea in the Kremlin any time soon. He's not as stupid as Lukashenko."

...and there are very few windows or balconies left in the Donbas.

 

[sparkie]

"Some sort of assassination, as you suggest, seems more likely, but I'm not sure he can get to him now. Prighozin isn't going for tea in the Kremlin any time soon. He's not as stupid as Lukashenko."

...and there are very few windows or balconies left in the Donbas.

But an "accidental" airstrike could still target him.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

But an "accidental" airstrike could still target him.

Are they accurate enough? Evidence suggests not. Again, if they try and miss, they face the prospect of him leading his personality cult (with his followers knowing it's follow his orders or have your head cling filmed to a post and exploded open with a sledgehammer) through an undefended Russia all the way to Red Square.

 

[raymondo]

But an "accidental" airstrike could still target him.

Aahh yes...they are prone to accidents

 

[driddles]

Well if history is anything to go by, whilst he (and Wagner) have some value to Putin, he'll stay alive but once that value disappears he'll be killed....

Our war reporter Gwynne Dyer suspects that Prigozhin may be least bad option for the new Russia

"(talks about the other options before this part) so which of these moral and intellectual giants would you like to see take over from Putin when the time comes? None of the above? Well, then, how about Yevgeny Prigozhin?

He’s a thug, to be sure, but you’ll never hear him spouting the kind of fake geopolitical nonsense the others talk, nor the mystical pseudoreligious stuff either. He clearly knows how to run both a business and an army. And most importantly, Prigozhin has credit as a patriot for capturing Bakhmut, but no implicit obligation to fight the war until the end.

The soldiers and secret policemen around Putin hate him, because he’s from entirely the wrong background, but if Putin goes so will most or all of them. Does he see himself as a pretender to the throne? Well, he is just withdrawing his entire private army from Bakhmut for a couple of months of rest and retraining. Somewhere near Moscow, perhaps."

 

[peterward]

"Some sort of assassination, as you suggest, seems more likely, but I'm not sure he can get to him now. Prighozin isn't going for tea in the Kremlin any time soon. He's not as stupid as Lukashenko."

...and there are very few windows or balconies left in the Donbas.

 

[Eric the meek]

This is hugely important.

We can all surmise what is going on, based on a mix of western mainstream media, western social media and wishful thinking, but this commentary is coming from Russian war bloggers, who tend to be rabidly nationalistic and provide a window on how the opposition are faring.

Russia cannot possibly hope to win its own war unless it is united. If they are all at each others throats, then how can they counter a carefully planned combined arms campaign by Ukraine? But this phase of the counter offensive (forward guidance) seems to be going extraordinarily well. Ukraine could do worse than not beginning its actual counter offensive at all, but delay it and keep on with their excellent psy-ops campaign, e.g. we are ready to begin, we need more weapons, not long to go now, shhh, plans need silence etc. Russia is already in a blind panic.

Full marks to Ukraine.

 

[Sirnormangall]

More falling out of high window jinks upcoming

….which reminds me that I’ve not seen much of Mr Lavrov lately. Let’s hope nothing awful has happened

 

[raymondo]

….which reminds me that I’ve not seen much of Mr Lavrov lately. Let’s hope nothing awful has happened

He's probably shopping in Capetown, buying the latest Apple, Gucci etc accessories.

 

[peterward]

Nova Kakovka dam (under Russian control) has been blown. Devastating flooding will now occur downstream wiping out loads of settlements and making it almost impossible for Ukraine to cross in the water, bog/mud.

Upstream it's this body of water that is absolutely necessary to cool the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant reactors (also under Russian control).

Its a huge war crime that will devastate southern in the coming hours.

It was widely reported months ago, Russua had mined dam, and they've been evacuating people/settlements on left bank for months. Ukraine say Russia did it, Russia deny and say either nothing happened or Ukraine did it.

This will almost completely halt any Ukrainian attempt to get to Crimea or south Kherson/Melitipol for months if not this year.

Edit: Russia now claiming it happened merely due to damage (and not Ukraine) which only leaves Russia did it, or damage as they claim..... what's your money on?

 

[jakarta]

Not on BBC News - faked?