[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

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vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
28,273
Things about to get dangerously interesting...Lukashenko hospitalised in Moscow....Will Putin try and grab power under the pretence of keeping Belarus " safe " ? Also, Ukraine admits shaping operations are stepping up.
 


Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,182
Things about to get dangerously interesting...Lukashenko hospitalised in Moscow....Will Putin try and grab power under the pretence of keeping Belarus " safe " ? Also, Ukraine admits shaping operations are stepping up.
Lukashenko should stay clear of any open windows in the hospital…..or maybe not
 






raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,363
Wiltshire
The reports I've seen of this look credible as well. I don't doubt it will end badly for them, but this kind of overt action is likely to encourage other groups and at the very least divert some troops away from defensive lines
I think that's the reason: to divert Russian troops away from their front lines, and also to panic the civilians.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,363
Wiltshire
Russia making hard work of suppressing the Balgorod Peoples' Republic little green men.

This will of course just fade away now - but hopefully it has given a few ideas to other separatists throughout the Muscovy empire.
I think we may soon see other incursions crossing the border.
 






A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,553
Deepest, darkest Sussex
I think we may soon see other incursions crossing the border.
This is why Biden has been very keen to get Zelenskyy to guarantee No US or NATO equipment is used on Russian soil
 


sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
13,271
Hove
If Lukashenko bites the dust then Putin has the chance to "temporarily" take over running Belarus - as part of this "Union State" - until another puppet takes over.

So it may give him a chance to "reluctantly" scale back his Special Military Operation in Ukraine - ie fall back to Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, particularly if his troops are needed to fight an insurgency in Belarus.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,363
Wiltshire
If Lukashenko bites the dust then Putin has the chance to "temporarily" take over running Belarus - as part of this "Union State" - until another puppet takes over.

So it may give him a chance to "reluctantly" scale back his Special Military Operation in Ukraine - ie fall back to Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, particularly if his troops are needed to fight an insurgency in Belarus.
Certainly a possibility. But if he does scale back that far I think Ukraine may take Crimea.
 


sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
13,271
Hove
Certainly a possibility. But if he does scale back that far I think Ukraine may take Crimea.
I agree. Ukraine has a fair chance of taking back Crimea.

Where the border actually ends up between Russia and Ukraine in Donbas is more of an uncertainty and will be a line on the map determined by negotiations.
 


peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,278
If Lukashenko bites the dust then Putin has the chance to "temporarily" take over running Belarus - as part of this "Union State" - until another puppet takes over.

So it may give him a chance to "reluctantly" scale back his Special Military Operation in Ukraine - ie fall back to Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, particularly if his troops are needed to fight an insurgency in Belarus.
Crimea, Lugansk and Donetsk is all he has anyway! yeah he got a few places along the south coast including Mariupol, Melitopol but his evacuation of those places wont be because he chooses too leave, he wont willingly.... but he will likely lose large swathes of these territories when the imminent counter offensive starts.

He will of course then try and frame that as a "strategic repositioning" rather than having his ass kicked.

Slava Ukraini!

 






Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,183
Goldstone
Certainly a possibility. But if he does scale back that far I think Ukraine may take Crimea.
I assume the concern is that Putin would try and take control of Belarus's military without having to use his own to get it, so he'd get another army to play with.

If Belarus's military was against Putin, I wouldn't imagine Russia has the capability of taking on another war.
 


peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,278
I assume the concern is that Putin would try and take control of Belarus's military without having to use his own to get it, so he'd get another army to play with.
Of course thats his intention. The agreement signed days ago thats published as "Russia will base tactical nuclear warheads in Belarus", was actually an agreement that Lukashenko signed that gives Russia the right to station all sorts of military hardware, including aircraft etc and for Russia to make any decisions it wants in deploying those assets on Belarussian soil, without the need for permission from Belarus. This experts said, this gave Putin pretty much defacto control over Belarus by having unrestrained use of Russian military, missiles and airforce in Belarus..... now before the ink is dry, Lukashenko is in hospital with suspected poisoning should surprise nobody............

When Lukashenko dies, a puppet will be appointed for sure that gives Putin defacto control over Belarussian army too, but even without that, he can now act to crush any uprising or attempts to have any regime he doesnt agree with, using Russian military in Belarus without any required consent from Minsk.
 


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