[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Triggaaar]

At least we agree on my last point.

I'm amazed that after consideration, you disagree on the rest.

The overestimation of his own military strength would likely have provided the biggest shock of all to Putin. To be out fought, out thought, and 'out-propaganda-ed', by Ukraine (who he described as 'Little Russians'), and therefore comprehensively disabused of his superiority complex, must have hit him hard, reducing his chances of reversing the perceived travesty of the break up of the Soviet Union.

Indeed.

But is he now at his most dangerous? Some weeks ago, the Royal United Services Institute predicted that, as he continues to lose the ground war, we should expect an increase in activity on other fronts in his hybrid war. They also predicted he would stall for time. To manufacture more weapons, to re-arm, and to work on dividing the unity of the west.

It seems likely he'd like to stall for time and look for other ways he can and make any sort of progress, but I can't see how that equates to being at his most dangerous. His most dangerous (barring starting a nuclear war, which may not even be within his control) is surely when he has a powerful army to throw about. Stalling for time is hardly more dangerous than waging war.

Today, inspite of a weakened Russia, Putin is as belligerent as ever. He has just announced plans to increase his military spend. He isn't going to stop until he is stopped.

He does seem to be a bit stuck. He can't just stop and declare victory, because Ukraine will keep fighting. And obviously he can't admit defeat, so he has to just keep fighting and hoping it works.

 

[Eric the meek]

It seems likely he'd like to stall for time and look for other ways he can and make any sort of progress, but I can't see how that equates to being at his most dangerous. His most dangerous (barring starting a nuclear war, which may not even be within his control) is surely when he has a powerful army to throw about. Stalling for time is hardly more dangerous than waging war.

He is always waging war. He is never not waging war. He has been waging war against the west for 20 years; it is just that until he invaded Ukraine, the west hadn't noticed.

The fact that he is losing the ground war and stalling for time, doesn't mean he is less dangerous. It just means he is focusing on other fronts, while he rebuilds his army for a renewed ground war. Focus on the ground war means that Ukraine is keeping Russia occupied. But focus on other fronts breeds innovation. That's where the danger is; new fronts, new targets, new ways to hurt the nazis he believes inhabit Ukraine and further afield.

 

[Triggaaar]

He is always waging war. He is never not waging war. He has been waging war against the west for 20 years; it is just that until he invaded Ukraine, the west hadn't noticed.

If you consider all his actions to be war, then you surely concede that there are different levels, and invading Ukraine was a higher level. I don't think the people suffering in Ukraine would consider his actions this year to just be more of the same.

The fact that he is losing the ground war and stalling for time, doesn't mean he is less dangerous. It just means he is focusing on other fronts, while he rebuilds his army for a renewed ground war. Focus on the ground war means that Ukraine is keeping Russia occupied. But focus on other fronts breeds innovation. That's where the danger is; new fronts, new targets, new ways to hurt the nazis he believes inhabit Ukraine and further afield.

So you're saying that he's more dangerous now because he's focusing on other areas, but you also say he's been focusing on those other areas for 20 years anyway. So I can't see your logic in how he's now more dangerous. There are many articles about how Putin is now weakened, rather than at his most dangerous.

 

[Eric the meek]

If you consider all his actions to be war, then you surely concede that there are different levels, and invading Ukraine was a higher level. I don't think the people suffering in Ukraine would consider his actions this year to just be more of the same.



So you're saying that he's more dangerous now because he's focusing on other areas, but you also say he's been focusing on those other areas for 20 years anyway. So I can't see your logic in how he's now more dangerous. There are many articles about how Putin is now weakened, rather than at his most dangerous.

Yes, I would absolutely agree/concede that there are different levels of warfare and invading Ukraine is a higher level. I wasn't trying to diminish what is happening in Ukraine; apologies if it came across like that.

I would counsel against assuming that weakness means less danger. The opposite might be true. The reason - Putin is being forced to innovate and adapt.

In his vast range of warfare, Putin has used techniques he has used in the past (propaganda, disinformation, cyber warfare, fomenting unrest, false flags, bombing cities to a fine ash, ethnic cleansing, annexations, false referenda etc), but he is now expanding his repertoire.

As he continues to lose his own ground war, he is looking for alternatives and has discovered drones. He has bought in Iranian drones to attack Ukraine infrastructure. Military experts have questioned the value in this policy. The good news is that this means that Russia does not currently have the ability to manufacture such drones itself. However, a while ago, before drones were used in earnest, I watched a Russian state TV clip of a propagandist, Vladimir Solovyov, complaining about the cost of the Iranian drones, and asking why Russia couldn't make them itself. If you take the view, as I do, that the content of Russian state TV talk shows like Solovyov's are planned and choreographed by the Kremlin, then there will soon be a concerted effort by Russia to manufacture its own drones. Having bought the Iranian drones, it is inconceivable that Russian engineers will not have been crawling all over them. The conclusion is that, assuming it will be able to source the parts, Russia will soon have its own drones, and will no longer be reliant on a foreign country to sell them to Russia.

The war is changing. It is changing because Putin has been weakened.

 

[raymondo]

Whether it's partisan activity or local poor management... it's all good

 

[Eric the meek]

Whether it's partisan activity or local poor management... it's all good

A quick look on Wikipedia reveals:

'The VILS Scientific Production Association consists of the All-Russian Institute of Light Alloys, the Light Alloy Works, and the Zubtsov Engineering Plant. It is one of several metallurgical organizations which developed and manufactured semi-finished products from steel, aluminum, magnesium, titanium, nickel and super alloys for the Soviet Ministry of the Aviation Industry.'

Is this a precision attack on Russian infrastructure?

 

[raymondo]

A quick look on Wikipedia reveals:

'The VILS Scientific Production Association consists of the All-Russian Institute of Light Alloys, the Light Alloy Works, and the Zubtsov Engineering Plant. It is one of several metallurgical organizations which developed and manufactured semi-finished products from steel, aluminum, magnesium, titanium, nickel and super alloys for the Soviet Ministry of the Aviation Industry.'

Is this a precision attack on Russian infrastructure?

It could be. Thanks for the research

 

[raymondo]

 

[Triggaaar]

Yes, I would absolutely agree/concede that there are different levels of warfare and invading Ukraine is a higher level. I wasn't trying to diminish what is happening in Ukraine; apologies if it came across like that.

No it didn't, no apology necessary. I was just highlighting the difference between the current war and anything else he'd been doing before.

I would counsel against assuming that weakness means less danger. The opposite might be true. The reason - Putin is being forced to innovate and adapt.

In his vast range of warfare, Putin has used techniques he has used in the past (propaganda, disinformation, cyber warfare, fomenting unrest, false flags, bombing cities to a fine ash, ethnic cleansing, annexations, false referenda etc), but he is now expanding his repertoire.

As he continues to lose his own ground war, he is looking for alternatives and has discovered drones. He has bought in Iranian drones to attack Ukraine infrastructure. Military experts have questioned the value in this policy. The good news is that this means that Russia does not currently have the ability to manufacture such drones itself. However, a while ago, before drones were used in earnest, I watched a Russian state TV clip of a propagandist, Vladimir Solovyov, complaining about the cost of the Iranian drones, and asking why Russia couldn't make them itself. If you take the view, as I do, that the content of Russian state TV talk shows like Solovyov's are planned and choreographed by the Kremlin, then there will soon be a concerted effort by Russia to manufacture its own drones. Having bought the Iranian drones, it is inconceivable that Russian engineers will not have been crawling all over them. The conclusion is that, assuming it will be able to source the parts, Russia will soon have its own drones, and will no longer be reliant on a foreign country to sell them to Russia.

The war is changing. It is changing because Putin has been weakened.

Understood.

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-magnate-pavel-antov-dies-000047778.html

Criticised missile strikes on Kiev, not too long later falls out of a window to his death.

 

[jakarta]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-magnate-pavel-antov-dies-000047778.html

Criticised missile strikes on Kiev, not too long later falls out of a window to his death.

Clearly if you are one of Vlad's 'mates' you need to stay away from any window that isn't on the ground floor.

BTW I love the idea of being a 'Sausage Tycoon' - was he from Bury?

 

[Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ]

Clearly if you are one of Vlad's 'mates' you need to stay away from any window that isn't on the ground floor.

BTW I love the idea of being a 'Sausage Tycoon' - was he from Bury?

Hmnn, I imagine that there are plenty of other ways to get you through a ground-floor window. A calling perfume salesman perhaps?

 

[Sirnormangall]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-magnate-pavel-antov-dies-000047778.html

Criticised missile strikes on Kiev, not too long later falls out of a window to his death.

Nothing to see here - apparently it was an accident (like the others).He had been drowning his sorrows after his friend coincidentally died 2 days earlier on the same trip. The oligarchs are getting a bit careless.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Clearly if you are one of Vlad's 'mates' you need to stay away from any window that isn't on the ground floor.

BTW I love the idea of being a 'Sausage Tycoon' - was he from Bury?

By heck, that’s unfortunate for the man.

Vlad does seem to be concentrating on bumping off millionaire/billionaire Russian businessmen who have criticised his horrific war. He is clearly spending a lot of time working on staying in powers/staying alive rather than trying to defeat the Ukraine.

 

[fly high]

By heck, that’s unfortunate for the man.







Vlad does seem to be concentrating on bumping off millionaire/billionaire Russian businessmen who have criticised his horrific war. He is clearly spending a lot of time working on staying in powers/staying alive rather than trying to defeat the Ukraine.

Probably taking their money and putting it in his own pocket

 

[Eric the meek]

By heck, that’s unfortunate for the man.

Vlad does seem to be concentrating on bumping off millionaire/billionaire Russian businessmen who have criticised his horrific war. He is clearly spending a lot of time working on staying in powers/staying alive rather than trying to defeat the Ukraine.

A few months ago, I read that Putin was increasing his budget for internal security by some 40%. He was clearly anticipating internal unrest.

 

[jcdenton08]

It would be funny if it weren’t so serious. Putin has hugely ramped up offing dissenters, he isn’t quite clinging on but it’s getting eggier by the day.

Enemies of Putin are very accident prone, aren’t they?

 

[A1X]

Nothing to see here - apparently it was an accident (like the others).He had been drowning his sorrows after his friend coincidentally died 2 days earlier on the same trip. The oligarchs are getting a bit careless.

Lemming December they’ll call it

 

[raymondo]

 

[Shropshire Seagull]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-magnate-pavel-antov-dies-000047778.html

Criticised missile strikes on Kiev, not too long later falls out of a window to his death.

Hmmm, Novichok and Polonium 210 stocks must be low so resorting to cheaper tactics