[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Triggaaar]

haven't heard much from Western leaders on conditions to end conflict

Well they can give opinions, but at the end of the day it's up to Ukraine and Russia.

often calls for a negotiation to end the conflict and that implies compromise, some sort of give and take

People can hardly call for more war, they have to be seen to be calling for peace. How much compromise there is will depend on how successful each side is in the war.

and there's a question not asked, will the Crimean's accept being part of Ukraine?

They seemed fine up until 2014, when Russian soldiers started a war.

 

[Eric the meek]

You should probably read this if that's what you believe:

Uh-oh. @Brighton Lines, you appear to have painted yourself into a corner. The leader of the western world has stated his position.

The position of @POTUS is clear, consistent and unambiguous. It's up to Ukraine. And Ukraine are going for full eviction of the orcs. Crimea and Donbas WILL be liberated.

I appreciate that you believe differently, but you're going to have to get your head around this. Good luck.

 

[Eeyore]

Uh-oh. @Brighton Lines, you appear to have painted yourself into a corner. The leader of the western world has stated his position.

The position of @POTUS is clear, consistent and unambiguous. It's up to Ukraine. And Ukraine are going for full eviction of the orcs. Crimea and Donbas WILL be liberated.

I appreciate that you believe differently, but you're going to have to get your head around this. Good luck.

I'm not sure how I have painted myself into a corner. I have merely offered a viewpoint that is of the opinion that this is a war that cannot be completely won by either side. If I was asked what should be done then I would say that the will of all citizens of Ukraine should be taken into account for a lasting peace.

I am concerned that it will last for an especially long time and that this winter will be an awful one for the folk of Ukraine. I'm not following this war like it's some computer game, I am looking at things from a human perspective.

We all agree that Russian forces should not have started this. And we don't know how it will end. I just cannot see how Russian forces can be driven out of the current occupied territories successfully. I certainly can't see how they will be removed from Crimea. I'd like to think that they might just up and leave. But we know the reality.

So my thinking is that some kind of negotiated outcome will eventually occur. Despite what is said at the highest levels. My thinking may be wrong. Either way it makes no difference. I'm not the one making political decisions here, or trying to score points over other opinions. What I have written I have written. Whether my reading of this situation is right or wrong. A thread is for opinions, And looking back over my time in NSC I have been very right sometimes, and very wrong others. Just like everyone else.

 

[chickens]

I'm not sure how I have painted myself into a corner. I have merely offered a viewpoint that is of the opinion that this is a war that cannot be completely won by either side. If I was asked what should be done then I would say that the will of all citizens of Ukraine should be taken into account for a lasting peace.

I am concerned that it will last for an especially long time and that this winter will be an awful one for the folk of Ukraine. I'm not following this war like it's some computer game, I am looking at things from a human perspective.

We all agree that Russian forces should not have started this. And we don't know how it will end. I just cannot see how Russian forces can be driven out of the current occupied territories successfully. I certainly can't see how they will be removed from Crimea. I'd like to think that they might just up and leave. But we know the reality.

So my thinking is that some kind of negotiated outcome will eventually occur. Despite what is said at the highest levels. My thinking may be wrong. Either way it makes no difference. I'm not the one making political decisions here, or trying to score points over other opinions. What I have written I have written. Whether my reading of this situation is right or wrong. A thread is for opinions, And looking back over my time in NSC I have been very right sometimes, and very wrong others. Just like everyone else.

Like you, I hope this war ends quickly, and I agree that some form of negotiation will be required for this to happen, but unlike you I believe that the minimum requirement is that all of Ukraine is liberated. Personally I believe that Russia should be forced to cede some territory to Ukraine by way of reparations.

Additionally, Ukraine can’t negotiate in good faith with Putin, he’s proven himself a clown who’s full of shit.

Unless Russia can present a leader who hasn’t already lost all international credibility, then it’s impossible to take anything Russia says officially seriously. Any agreement will be overturned the next time Putin has a tantrum.

 

[Sirnormangall]

What I hope emerges is an end to an illegal, brutal war that Russia started by invading an independent, peaceful, sovereign nation. I hope it ends with a complete rout of the Russians, with every single Russian evicted from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and the Donbas.

I further hope that Russia is dismembered in a break up of the Russian Federation, that Putin disappears and is replaced by a moderate, Russia's economy continues down the plughole, and that Russia is never again able to wage war on a completely innocent neighbour.

Hear, hear. That would be the right and just outcome. I sincerely hope it happens and I believe Ukraine can pull it off, but not on their own - it will depend on the continued support and resilience of the West who will also have a major say in any peace negotiations.

 

[Eric the meek]

I'm not sure how I have painted myself into a corner. I have merely offered a viewpoint that is of the opinion that this is a war that cannot be completely won by either side. If I was asked what should be done then I would say that the will of all citizens of Ukraine should be taken into account for a lasting peace.

I am concerned that it will last for an especially long time and that this winter will be an awful one for the folk of Ukraine. I'm not following this war like it's some computer game, I am looking at things from a human perspective.

We all agree that Russian forces should not have started this. And we don't know how it will end. I just cannot see how Russian forces can be driven out of the current occupied territories successfully. I certainly can't see how they will be removed from Crimea. I'd like to think that they might just up and leave. But we know the reality.

So my thinking is that some kind of negotiated outcome will eventually occur. Despite what is said at the highest levels. My thinking may be wrong. Either way it makes no difference. I'm not the one making political decisions here, or trying to score points over other opinions. What I have written I have written. Whether my reading of this situation is right or wrong. A thread is for opinions, And looking back over my time in NSC I have been very right sometimes, and very wrong others. Just like everyone else.

I detect a shift in your opinion.

You now state, I believe for the very first time, that 'the will of all citizens of Ukraine should be taken into account for a lasting peace.' Nothing like this appears in your previous comments. Your previous comments are of the 'Ukraine should be divided' variety. This is very different.

But does 'the will of all citizens of Ukraine should be taken into account for a lasting peace' mean that their will should be the overriding factor, like Joe Biden says? Or just be 'taken into account' i.e. listened to, and then bypassed?

I'm genuinely interested how far your opinion has shifted.

 

[Eeyore]

I detect a shift in your opinion.

You now state, I believe for the very first time, that 'the will of all citizens of Ukraine should be taken into account for a lasting peace.' Nothing like this appears in your previous comments. Your previous comments are of the 'Ukraine should be divided' variety. This is very different.

But does 'the will of all citizens of Ukraine should be taken into account for a lasting peace' mean that their will should be the overriding factor, like Joe Biden says? Or just be 'taken into account' i.e. listened to, and then bypassed?

I'm genuinely interested how far your opinion has shifted.

Okay, let me be as clear as I can-

What I think may happen and seems like the only political solution- The fighting stops and both sides start negotiating.

What I would personally like to happen- Russia leaves Ukraine. The people of Donbas (and Crimea) decide what they want without bloodshed and with full respect from the international community.

The top is my view based on how it seems things are heading and my desire for the killing to end. The bottom is my hope in an ideal world.

Either way, I’m not sure that the Donbas would stay as it is within Ukraine but, as I said, I could be wrong like anyone else.

My mention of views being taken into account is based on the knowledge that political solutions are a fusion of a multiple of views. One person will see things different to another.

What I mostly want is peace and folk getting some sort of quality of life back. Not political agendas.

My view hasn’t changed.

Not that my view really matters. Over and out.

 

[Eeyore]

Like you, I hope this war ends quickly, and I agree that some form of negotiation will be required for this to happen, but unlike you I believe that the minimum requirement is that all of Ukraine is liberated. Personally I believe that Russia should be forced to cede some territory to Ukraine by way of reparations.

Additionally, Ukraine can’t negotiate in good faith with Putin, he’s proven himself a clown who’s full of shit.

Unless Russia can present a leader who hasn’t already lost all international credibility, then it’s impossible to take anything Russia says officially seriously. Any agreement will be overturned the next time Putin has a tantrum.

If we're talking about Russia leaving then I agree with you. My personal view is that they should leave and the Donbas should be helped to determine its own future, but not by the sword. But, as I said earlier, I don't think it will happen and the only solution seems to be negotiation.

What actually happens and what seems the most fair and human response divorce when politics becomes involved.

 

[Triggaaar]

I'm not sure how I have painted myself into a corner. I have merely offered a viewpoint that is of the opinion that this is a war that cannot be completely won by either side.

I'm not saying you've put yourself in a corner, you have only given your opinion like the rest of us, but you aren't simply saying that this won't be completely won by either side. I expect most of us agree with that. But you have said that the West will want (and therefore get) a negotiated peace soon, and that Russia won't be pushed out of the Donbas.

I just cannot see how Russian forces can be driven out of the current occupied territories successfully.

I can see this war dragging on, with no negotiated peace in the near future. I don't know that Russia will be driven out of the Donbas, but I expect over time they will continue to be pushed back by Ukrainian artillery and strategic offensives.

So my thinking is that some kind of negotiated outcome will eventually occur.

Well that's just a fact. Eventually, everyone alive today will be dead, and eventually the current war between Russia and Ukraine will end. But you think the West need that to happen soon so we can all get on with our lives, but I can't see Ukraine accepting the current situation, and I can't see Russia retreating yet, so I see no peace in the short term. Unless of course Putin is overthrown.

 

[Eric the meek]

Okay, let me be as clear as I can-

What I think may happen and seems like the only political solution- The fighting stops and both sides start negotiating.

What I would personally like to happen- Russia leaves Ukraine. The people of Donbas (and Crimea) decide what they want without bloodshed and with full respect from the international community.

The top is my view based on how it seems things are heading and my desire for the killing to end. The bottom is my hope in an ideal world.

Either way, I’m not sure that the Donbas would stay as it is within Ukraine but, as I said, I could be wrong like anyone else.

My mention of views being taken into account is based on the knowledge that political solutions are a fusion of a multiple of views. One person will see things different to another.

What I mostly want is peace and folk getting some sort of quality of life back. Not political agendas.

My view hasn’t changed.

Not that my view really matters. Over and out.

Your view doesn't really matter? Why did you completely rewrite it, from your previous attempt that appeared at 9.45pm then?

Why does it now not speak about a divided Ukraine, which you describe as a 'crude reality', but now speaks of more noble, palatable ideals of 'without bloodshed' and self-determination for the people of Donbas and Crimea? Has Russia given up on Kherson and Zap then? These Russians have got no stamina.

 

[Eeyore]

Your view doesn't really matter? Why did you completely rewrite it, from your previous attempt that appeared at 9.45pm then?

Why does it now not speak about a divided Ukraine, which you describe as a 'crude reality', but now speaks of more noble, palatable ideals of 'without bloodshed' and self-determination for the people of Donbas and Crimea? Has Russia given up on Kherson and Zap then? These Russians have got no stamina.

It was re-written in simple and clear lines because you are like a dog with a bone who analysis every single word like a theologian discussing the nuances of New Testament Greek. It occurred to me that anything could be willfully miss-interpreted as you appear to want a barney. So it doesn't help not be completely clear between what I think will happen and what I would hope to happen.

'If Ukraine is seriously looking West it will have to divide in some way' Political view 'What I would personally like to happen- Russia leaves Ukraine. The people of Donbas (and Crimea) decide what they want without bloodshed and with full respect from the international community' Personal view.

What I want and what I realistically expect are two different things.

I think I've made my thoughts clear. @Triggaaar believes I am wrong about the West's resolve here, which could be the case. As I have said, I'm often wrong

This post has been edited too, just to tighten up its clarity although I'm getting a bit obsessive about this and I'll leave it there now.

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[Eric the meek]

It was re-written in simple and clear lines because you are like a dog with a bone who analysis every single word like a theologian discussing the nuances of New Testament Greek. It occurred to me that anything could be willfully miss-interpreted as you appear to want a barney. So it doesn't help not be completely clear between what I think will happen and what I would hope to happen.

'If Ukraine is seriously looking West it will have to divide in some way' Political view 'What I would personally like to happen- Russia leaves Ukraine. The people of Donbas (and Crimea) decide what they want without bloodshed and with full respect from the international community' Personal view.

What I want and what I realistically expect are two different things.

I think I've made my thoughts clear. @Triggaaar believes I am wrong about the West's resolve here, which could be the case. As I have said, I'm often wrong

This post has been edited too, just to tighten up its clarity although I'm getting a bit obsessive about this and I'll leave it there now.

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You are getting a bit personal there. I would counsel against that.

I'm not looking for a barney, but just exploring the shift in your opinions, and the inconsistencies in them.

For instance, why should Ukraine have to divide in some way? That would reward Putin for his invasion with two large chunks of Ukraine. But your personal view is that Russia should leave Ukraine?

Do you see the that the two are incompatible?

You go on to say 'The people of Donbas (and Crimea) decide what they want without bloodshed and with full respect from the international community' and that this is your personal view. On the face of it, the end of war and self determination for Crimea and Donbas are noble ideals. But you have previously stated the division of Ukraine is a 'crude reality', so you must believe you already know the outcome of any election in Crimea and Donbas. The problem is, while you champion no bloodshed and self-determination, it comes after Putin annexed Crimea, fomented unrest in Donbas, invaded it, killed innocent Ukrainians, caused a refugee crisis, and shipped in thousands of ethnic Russians to guard against an awkward free election in the future.

Given the above, and given he is running out of ammo, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Putin has exactly the same personal view as you do.

 

[Eeyore]

You are getting a bit personal there. I would counsel against that.

I'm not looking for a barney, but just exploring the shift in your opinions, and the inconsistencies in them.

For instance, why should Ukraine have to divide in some way? That would reward Putin for his invasion with two large chunks of Ukraine. But your personal view is that Russia should leave Ukraine?

Do you see the that the two are incompatible?

You go on to say 'The people of Donbas (and Crimea) decide what they want without bloodshed and with full respect from the international community' and that this is your personal view. On the face of it, the end of war and self determination for Crimea and Donbas are noble ideals. But you have previously stated the division of Ukraine is a 'crude reality', so you must believe you already know the outcome of any election in Crimea and Donbas. The problem is, while you champion no bloodshed and self-determination, it comes after Putin annexed Crimea, fomented unrest in Donbas, invaded it, killed innocent Ukrainians, caused a refugee crisis, and shipped in thousands of ethnic Russians to guard against an awkward free election in the future.

Given the above, and given he is running out of ammo, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Putin has exactly the same personal view as you do.

My personal view is that Russia should leave Ukraine. My personal view is that they should never have invaded in the first place. My personal view is that the Donbas should have had a ceasefire before the invasion and folk be given the chance to decide what they wanted. But those opportunity seem to have passed.

Politically I see the solution as ending up with some kind of future divide between the Donbas and the rest. My belief being we are facing an awful time in that region that could go on for ages. Some folk are saying 'That's wrong, Russia will be expelled'. I can't see how Russia can be expelled from Donbas. Others say they will. Hopefully they are right and the folk in the Donbas can then decide for themselves. Before Russia even invaded there was so much bloodshed there.

My personal view has never changed, my view of the political solution based on the current situation will always differ. Next month that may change as more news comes through. It's probably wrong anyway. As indeed most views may be. We're not there.

I just want it to stop. And that's it.

 

[beorhthelm]

there is a difference between what people think should happen, the right and just outcome, and what is more likely to happen, the pragmatic outcome.

 

[Baldseagull]

My personal view is that Russia should leave Ukraine. My personal view is that they should never have invaded in the first place. My personal view is that the Donbas should have had a ceasefire before the invasion and folk be given the chance to decide what they wanted. But those opportunity seem to have passed.

Politically I see the solution as ending up with some kind of future divide between the Donbas and the rest. My belief being we are facing an awful time in that region that could go on for ages. Some folk are saying 'That's wrong, Russia will be expelled'. I can't see how Russia can be expelled from Donbas. Others say they will. Hopefully they are right and the folk in the Donbas can then decide for themselves. Before Russia even invaded there was so much bloodshed there.

My personal view has never changed, my view of the political solution based on the current situation will always differ. Next month that may change as more news comes through. It's probably wrong anyway. As indeed most views may be. We're not there.

I just want it to stop. And that's it.

"Before Russia even invaded there was so much bloodshed there." Depends on when you think Russia first put its military men into the Donbass. Also the intensity of fighting had reduced enormously prior to Feb '22 invasion.
There was no bloodshed there prior to Russian inteference.

 

[sparkie]

I think it is slightly pointless arguing about what the outcome might be.

Too many unknowns. We see reports of Russia running out of ammunition, we see reports of NATO worrying about its ammo stocks...

We don't know who is plotting what in the Kremlin and beyond.

Sooner or later hard choices have to be made. Is the price of stopping Russian missile strikes giving up some territory ? Maybe, maybe not. Not for us to decide.

But it is certain no side will give away their ultimate worst acceptable settlement in advance and over the Internet.

My big worry is how to stop Russia banking a settlement and then coming back for more with another attack in 2-5 years time. The only solution I see to that is instant NATO membership for Ukraine at the end of the war which would really make Putin think twice about another go.

 

[jakarta]

Highly unlikely that NATO has issue with ammunition stocks seeing as the USA will be providing most of it.

Russia, on the other hand is now starting to see what Sanctions look like.

I hope they get all that is coming to them and they get ejected over the Border very shortly.

 

[Eric the meek]

'Can Putin Survive Russia’s Retreat in Kherson?'

It's not the retreat itself. I t's the implications. See what you think.

'Once Crimea has been cut off from Russia, via the land bridge, it's eventual return to Ukraine becomes far more likely'.

from 7.00 minutes onwards.

There's a lot of interesting stuff in this video, e.g. a drop off in missile/drone strikes by Russia, Ukrainian drones being developed, a 45% increase in the Russian domestic security budget, meaning they are anticipating a lot more unrest in the next couple of years.

 

[sparkie]

Putin is looking to cancel his annual press conference event.

Which might be significant.

 

[Eric the meek]

My big worry is how to stop Russia banking a settlement and then coming back for more with another attack in 2-5 years time. The only solution I see to that is instant NATO membership for Ukraine at the end of the war which would really make Putin think twice about another go.

I'm not worried at all about that.

I can't believe the west are not acutely aware of the danger of Putin v2.0 returning to a frozen conflict at some point in the future. Everyone knows Putin - and the Kremlin - cannot be trusted. Russian words, signatures and assurances are meaningless. I do wonder if this may prove to be the single most costly mistake Putin has made. Russia is now a rogue, pariah, terrorist state. It has no place and no future in today's globalised world.