[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Weststander]

Saw a video today with 5 Russian tanks driving behind each other along a road. The Ukrainians were monitoring via drone and relaying the info to hidden ground troops who then proceeded to take them all out with Nlaws,Stingers etc. All five were left total wrecks. That takes some balls

I've watched a few of these videos, also from Javelin missiles. Ukrainians lurking in side streets or further afield, biding their time.

 

[jakarta]

If I was a Russian Tankie, I don't expect I would be getting a cheap quote on my Life Insurance...

 

[sparkie]

I agree 100% but the Ukrainians also know that Crimea does have a lot of Russian support amongst it's Residents. Consequently they may allow that to be established by a PROPER LEGITIMATE ELECTION.

After what Russians have done elsewhere the Ukrainians could potentially win an Election in Crimea now so I have a feeling that might be the compromise they eventually make once the Russians are kicked out of Donbass and Luhansk.

Alternatively give the Crimean autonomy and then let them forge relations on whatever way they choose gradually over the next 10 years or so. Russia doesn't really want Crimea. They just want the Ports because most other Russian Ports freeze over in Winter.


They deported a lot of the Tatars years ago and replaced them with ethnic Russians so it it feasible they could still win an election in Crimea

I have also wondered if the way forward is a totally independent Crimea.

But then I think that Russia would just invade the tiny new state in a few years anyway - banking that the rest of the world ( including a war weary Ukraine ) would just react with words.

I suppose it could be a choreographed way of Ukraine giving up Crimea without actually giving it up directly.

Anyway it is up to them. Negotiations, when they come, will involve hard choices.

 

[Eeyore]

I agree 100% but the Ukrainians also know that Crimea does have a lot of Russian support amongst it's Residents. Consequently they may allow that to be established by a PROPER LEGITIMATE ELECTION.

After what Russians have done elsewhere the Ukrainians could potentially win an Election in Crimea now so I have a feeling that might be the compromise they eventually make once the Russians are kicked out of Donbass and Luhansk.

Alternatively give the Crimean autonomy and then let them forge relations on whatever way they choose gradually over the next 10 years or so. Russia doesn't really want Crimea. They just want the Ports because most other Russian Ports freeze over in Winter.


They deported a lot of the Tatars years ago and replaced them with ethnic Russians so it it feasible they could still win an election in Crimea

As we know, it's traditionally Russian territory and 60% are Russian speakers. It was wrong to invade, but I suspect it will remaining as Russian territory.

I can't see the Russians being kicked out of Donbass and Lubansk any time soon. The only way to the end of this is through some kind of negotiation otherwise there will be more widows and hardship on all sides. It's easy to sit here and see it as crude statistics, but both sides will grow war weary over the next few months.

With all the instability at home, I think the West will put pressure on Ukraine to talk to Russia now.

What I hope emerges is an end to a conflict that dates back well before this invasion. If Ukraine is seriously looking West it will have to divide in some way. That is the crude reality. It's easy for folk to sit in the West and talk of a forever war that involves the hopeless task of completely kicking the Russians out, they are not the ones with dead loved ones, ruined cities, no quality of life and little prospect. This is not a computer game.

 

[Theatre of Trees]

As we know, it's traditionally Russian territory and 60% are Russian speakers. It was wrong to invade, but I suspect it will remaining as Russian territory.

This is incorrect - see Demographics of Crimea - Russians have only been in a majority since the turn of the 20th century, and very few lived there at the turn of the 19th. The traditional inhabitants of the peninsula are the Crimean Tatars.

 

[sparkie]

Warner mercenary scum ( with their prison recruits ) getting an absolute pasting in Donbas now if reports are true.

Locals have raised the Ukraine flag in the center of Melitopol. Guess it won't stay there long but...

Wars are never "over by Christmas" but lots of good news coming out of Ukraine on all war fronts.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Warner mercenary scum ( with their prison recruits ) getting an absolute pasting in Donbas now if reports are true.

Wars are never "over by Christmas" but lots of good news coming out of Ukraine on all war fronts.

Hope the money was good for the fellas

 

[Scappa]

Warner mercenary scum ( with their prison recruits ) getting an absolute pasting in Donbas now if reports are true.

Locals have raised the Ukraine flag in the center of Melitopol. Guess it won't stay there long but...

Wars are never "over by Christmas" but lots of good news coming out of Ukraine on all war fronts.

Can only hope so, the utter scum that they are. Eternity is a sod of a long time to burn in hell.

 

[Eric the meek]

As we know, it's traditionally Russian territory and 60% are Russian speakers. It was wrong to invade, but I suspect it will remaining as Russian territory.

I can't see the Russians being kicked out of Donbass and Lubansk any time soon. The only way to the end of this is through some kind of negotiation otherwise there will be more widows and hardship on all sides. It's easy to sit here and see it as crude statistics, but both sides will grow war weary over the next few months.

With all the instability at home, I think the West will put pressure on Ukraine to talk to Russia now.

What I hope emerges is an end to a conflict that dates back well before this invasion. If Ukraine is seriously looking West it will have to divide in some way. That is the crude reality. It's easy for folk to sit in the West and talk of a forever war that involves the hopeless task of completely kicking the Russians out, they are not the ones with dead loved ones, ruined cities, no quality of life and little prospect. This is not a computer game.

What I hope emerges is an end to an illegal, brutal war that Russia started by invading an independent, peaceful, sovereign nation. I hope it ends with a complete rout of the Russians, with every single Russian evicted from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and the Donbas.

I further hope that Russia is dismembered in a break up of the Russian Federation, that Putin disappears and is replaced by a moderate, Russia's economy continues down the plughole, and that Russia is never again able to wage war on a completely innocent neighbour.

 

[aolstudios]

What I hope emerges is an end to an illegal, brutal war that Russia started by invading an independent, peaceful, sovereign nation. I hope it ends with a complete rout of the Russians, with every single Russian evicted from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and the Donbas.

I further hope that Russia is dismembered in a break up of the Russian Federation, that Putin disappears and is replaced by a moderate, Russia's economy continues down the plughole, and that Russia is never again able to wage war on a completely innocent neighbour.

All of this ^

 

[sparkie]

What I hope emerges is an end to an illegal, brutal war that Russia started by invading an independent, peaceful, sovereign nation. I hope it ends with a complete rout of the Russians, with every single Russian evicted from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and the Donbas.

I further hope that Russia is dismembered in a break up of the Russian Federation, that Putin disappears and is replaced by a moderate, Russia's economy continues down the plughole, and that Russia is never again able to wage war on a completely innocent neighbour.

Good outcome.

People forget that the Russian Federation is actually still a colonial empire - unusually with all the colonies joined by land and without seas between them.

The sooner the far flung reaches of the empire start breaking away the better. Absolutely no need for, say, Vladivostok to have anything more to do with the Muscovy core state.

Vladivexit required ! Lol.

 

[Triggaaar]

As we know, it's traditionally Russian territory and 60% are Russian speakers. It was wrong to invade, but I suspect it will remaining as Russian territory.

I can't see the Russians being kicked out of Donbass and Lubansk any time soon. The only way to the end of this is through some kind of negotiation otherwise there will be more widows and hardship on all sides. It's easy to sit here and see it as crude statistics, but both sides will grow war weary over the next few months.

With all the instability at home, I think the West will put pressure on Ukraine to talk to Russia now.

What I hope emerges is an end to a conflict that dates back well before this invasion. If Ukraine is seriously looking West it will have to divide in some way. That is the crude reality. It's easy for folk to sit in the West and talk of a forever war that involves the hopeless task of completely kicking the Russians out, they are not the ones with dead loved ones, ruined cities, no quality of life and little prospect. This is not a computer game.

It's easy for you to sit here and say Ukraine should give Russia land and Ukraine should divide, but that's not what Ukrainians are saying. Why don't you listen to what they want?

 

[GT49er]

This is incorrect - see Demographics of Crimea - Russians have only been in a majority since the turn of the 20th century, and very few lived there at the turn of the 19th. The traditional inhabitants of the peninsula are the Crimean Tatars.

120 years is a reasonable time for something to become traditional. Populations do move and migrate. It doesn't give imperialist Putin the right to invade though, but it might have given the inhabitants of Crimea the right to have a (fair) referendum. Too late for reasonable solutions like that now, unfortunately.

 

[Eric the meek]

Good outcome.

People forget that the Russian Federation is actually still a colonial empire - unusually with all the colonies joined by land and without seas between them.

The sooner the far flung reaches of the empire start breaking away the better. Absolutely no need for, say, Vladivostok to have anything more to do with the Muscovy core state.

Vladivexit required ! Lol.

Indeed.

I remember a series of tweets by Kamil Galeev and also Trent Telenko several months ago, that made the break up of the Russian Federation seem not just wishful thinking, but actually quite possible. The thinking was relatively simple, and is a function of Russia's vast size.

But to set the scene, think back to the utter shambles of the 40 mile truck convoy that tried and failed to reach Kyiv back in March. Fast forward 6 months, and Russia has had to resort to buying drones from Iran FFS.

In order to get anywhere distant in Russia, you have to fly or use the train. Sanctions are hurting Russian industry in many ways, but one significant way is that Russia is unable to source western components for its airline and train networks. At present, planes and trains are being bastardised for spares to keep the dwindling number of planes and trains that still function, in working order. But those spares, having already been used, have a finite shelf life. Sooner or later, the whole airline and rail network will degrade, with first world standards of health and safety going out of the window.

Moscow will no longer be able to wield its usual strong-arm tactics, because officials will no longer be able to get to the regions to do so. The usual threats, veiled or otherwise, will be seen for what they are. Empty. Local regional warlords will cotton onto this, and agitate before making power and land grabs. Central Asian states, used to Moscow pressure and patronage, will see only a power vacuum. Will China stand by and watch? Will Turkey? I don't think so.

 

[Eeyore]

It's easy for you to sit here and say Ukraine should give Russia land and Ukraine should divide, but that's not what Ukrainians are saying. Why don't you listen to what they want?

I'm not saying what should happen. But I am saying what will happen if the current Ukraine government tries to pursue its goals with the West.

Russia will not be driven out of Ukraine. Not in the east. All we are going to see is a dreadful winter and further terrible loss OR some kind of stalemate.

The West will want to see some kind of negotiation sometime soon. It is the West that is funding the Ukraine efforts. And nobody should for one moment consider this support is born out of total altruism.

 

[Triggaaar]

I'm not saying what should happen. But I am saying what will happen if the current Ukraine government tries to pursue its goals with the West.

You're stating it as if it's a fact, which it clearly isn't.

Russia will not be driven out of Ukraine. Not in the east.

More speculation spouted as fact.

The West will want to see some kind of negotiation sometime soon.

And another opinion stated as fact. The West want Russia to leave Ukraine - I'm pretty sure that's a fact. Some in the West may prefer Ukraine to give up land in order to see peace, but many will not want Russia to gain from this illegal invasion, so it is not a fact that they'll want Ukraine to give up its land.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I'm not saying what should happen. But I am saying what will happen if the current Ukraine government tries to pursue its goals with the West.

Russia will not be driven out of Ukraine. Not in the east. All we are going to see is a dreadful winter and further terrible loss OR some kind of stalemate.

The West will want to see some kind of negotiation sometime soon. It is the West that is funding the Ukraine efforts. And nobody should for one moment consider this support is born out of total altruism.

I think Ukraine can drive Russia from all it's lands militarily. They believe it as well. Whilst they are seeing victories on the battlefield and they are seeing joy on the faces of those liberated, and all the while they have a powerful supporter in the White House, they have no reason at all to do what you are suggesting and make a deal with Russia.

Even If Zelensky was minded to do a deal, which he obviously isn't, what sort of deal could he make which Putin/Russia would stick to? How could he convince his people that he thinks Russia would stick to their side of the bargain?

Yes, this continuation will come at the cost of many lives and that's sad. But that death toll is not on us and it's not on Ukraine. It's not the place of us in the west to tell Ukrainians what concessions they should be making. It's their land, so their choice. Our job is to provide military and economic aid if they ask for it.

 

[beorhthelm]

You're stating it as if it's a fact, which it clearly isn't.



More speculation spouted as fact.


And another opinion stated as fact. The West want Russia to leave Ukraine - I'm pretty sure that's a fact. Some in the West may prefer Ukraine to give up land in order to see peace, but many will not want Russia to gain from this illegal invasion, so it is not a fact that they'll want Ukraine to give up its land.

haven't heard much from Western leaders on conditions to end conflict. often calls for a negotiation to end the conflict and that implies compromise, some sort of give and take. and there's a question not asked, will the Crimean's accept being part of Ukraine?

 

[Dave the OAP]

haven't heard much from Western leaders on conditions to end conflict. often calls for a negotiation to end the conflict and that implies compromise, some sort of give and take. and there's a question not asked, will the Crimean's accept being part of Ukraine?

There can only be a negotiated settlement.

I can still see, even if the Chinese have told him not to or else, Putin not accepting defeat and twanging a couple of tactical nukes

 

[Solid at the back]

I'm not saying what should happen. But I am saying what will happen if the current Ukraine government tries to pursue its goals with the West.

Russia will not be driven out of Ukraine. Not in the east. All we are going to see is a dreadful winter and further terrible loss OR some kind of stalemate.

The West will want to see some kind of negotiation sometime soon. It is the West that is funding the Ukraine efforts. And nobody should for one moment consider this support is born out of total altruism.

You should probably read this if that's what you believe: